Cervical cancer mortality in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, 1996-2010: time trends and projections up to 2030

Aretha Maria Virgínio de Sousa Cinthia Carla Alves Teixeira Sidney da Silva Medeiros Samira Jucinara Claudino Nunes Pétala Tuani Cândido de Oliveira Salvador Rosires Magali Bezerra de Barros Fernanda Fabíola Santos de Lima Gésica Gabriela Costa do Nascimento Juliano dos Santos Dyego Leandro Bezerra de Souza Aline Patrícia dos Santos Bezerra Karina Cardoso Meira About the authors

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

to analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in the state of Rio Grande do Norte and its health micro-regions from 1996 to 2010, as well as to make projections for five-year periods from 2011 to 2030.

METHODS:

this was an ecological time series study; negative binomial regression was used to analyze trends and projections.

RESULTS:

rates above 5.0 deaths per 100,000 women were observed in all the micro-regions, with a stationary trend in the state as a whole and an upward trend in the micro-regions with the worst socioeconomic conditions; projections indicated reduction in mortality rates in the state, from 5.95/100,000 women (2006-2010) to 3.67 (2026-2030), although a 22% increase in the absolute number of deaths is expected.

CONCLUSION:

although a reduction in mortality rates is projected, they continue to be high, indicating the need for review and strengthening of the state's cervical cancer control program.

Key words:
Mortality; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms; Temporal Distribution; Negative Binomial Distribution

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