The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections and observed evolution, May-August, 2020

To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications.

Methods

The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths.

Results

The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively.

Conclusion

Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

Coronavirus Infections; Disease Transmission, Infectious; Forecasting; Pandemics; Brazil; Time Series Studies

Authorship

Caroline Stein

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Porto Alegre, RS, BrazilUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Porto Alegre, RS, BrazilBrazilBrazilUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4777-1630

Ewerton Cousin

University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, United StatesUniversity of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, United StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUniversity of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, United States

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3455-8865

Ísis Eloah Machado

Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Departamento de Medicina de Família, Saúde Mental e Coletiva, Ouro Preto, MG, BrazilUniversidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Departamento de Medicina de Família, Saúde Mental e Coletiva, Ouro Preto, MG, BrazilBrazilBrazilUniversidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Departamento de Medicina de Família, Saúde Mental e Coletiva, Ouro Preto, MG, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4678-2074

Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes

Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Escola de Enfermagem, Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Escola de Enfermagem, Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilBrazilBrazilUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Escola de Enfermagem, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5321-5708

Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos

Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilBrazilBrazilUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2829-5798

Tatiane Moraes de Sousa

Fundação Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Departamento de Endemias Samuel Pessoa, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BrazilFundação Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Departamento de Endemias Samuel Pessoa, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BrazilBrazilBrazilFundação Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Departamento de Endemias Samuel Pessoa, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4359-465X

Maria Inês Schmidt

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Faculdade de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina Social, Porto Alegre, RS, BrazilUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Faculdade de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina Social, Porto Alegre, RS, BrazilBrazilBrazilUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Faculdade de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina Social, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3837-0731

John Gallagher

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1674-5280

Mohsen Naghavi

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6209-1513

Bruce B. Duncan

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7491-2630

Correspondence: Caroline Stein – Rua Ramiro Barcelos, No. 2400, 2o andar, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil. Postcode: 90035-003 E-mail: caroline.stein@ufrgs.br

Authors’ contributions

Stein C and Duncan BB were responsible for the study concept and design, drafting the preliminary versions and critically reviewing the intellectual content of the manuscript. Stein C and Cousin E performed the data analyses. Stein C, Cousin E, Machado IE, Felisbino-Mendes MS, Passos VMA, Sousa TM, Schmidt MI, Gallagher J, Naghavi M and Duncan BB interpreted the data, critically reviewed the intellectual content, approved the final version of the manuscript and are responsible for all aspects thereof, including the guarantee of its accuracy and integrity.

Associate editor: Luciana Guerra Gallo - orcid.org/0000-0001-8344-9951

SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Figures

Figures (5)

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Figure 1
– Projection of the daily number of COVID-19 deaths in Brazil, made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and provided on August 28th 2020, considering three scenariosa

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Figure 2
– Projections made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and observed data provided by the Ministry of Health (MoH) for daily number of deaths (upper panel) and cumulative number of deaths (lower panel) due to COVID-19, Brazil, March – December, 2020

Thumbnail

Figure 3
– Projections made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and observed data provided by the Ministry of Health for daily number of deaths (upper panel) and cumulative number of deaths (lower panel) due to COVID-19, state of Amazonas, March – December 2020

Thumbnail

Figure 4
– Projections made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and observed data provided by the Ministry of Health for daily number of deaths (upper panel) and cumulative number of deaths (lower panel) due to COVID-19, state of São Paulo, March – December 2020

Thumbnail

Figure 5
– Percentage projection error, comparing cumulative COVID-19 deaths as estimated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at two, four and six weeks after the projection date, with the cumulative number of deaths reported by the Ministry of Health for the same period, and mean error (mean absolute percentage error: MAPE) between all projections, Brazil and the states of Amazonas, Paraná, Pernambuco and São Paulo, May – August 2020

Figure 1 – Projection of the daily number of COVID-19 deaths in Brazil, made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and provided on August 28th 2020, considering three scenariosa

a) The solid line is the course of the pandemic as at August 28^th 2020. The two almost overlapping upper dotted lines to the right of the August 28^th reference axis, represent the base projection (the lower of the two lines) and the alternative projection in the context of continuing mandate relaxation, regardless of the course of the pandemic. The dotted line further down shows the projection considering adoption of universal facemask use.

Figure 2 – Projections made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and observed data provided by the Ministry of Health (MoH) for daily number of deaths (upper panel) and cumulative number of deaths (lower panel) due to COVID-19, Brazil, March – December, 2020

Figure 3 – Projections made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and observed data provided by the Ministry of Health for daily number of deaths (upper panel) and cumulative number of deaths (lower panel) due to COVID-19, state of Amazonas, March – December 2020

Figure 4 – Projections made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and observed data provided by the Ministry of Health for daily number of deaths (upper panel) and cumulative number of deaths (lower panel) due to COVID-19, state of São Paulo, March – December 2020

Figure 5 – Percentage projection error, comparing cumulative COVID-19 deaths as estimated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at two, four and six weeks after the projection date, with the cumulative number of deaths reported by the Ministry of Health for the same period, and mean error (mean absolute percentage error: MAPE) between all projections, Brazil and the states of Amazonas, Paraná, Pernambuco and São Paulo, May – August 2020

Note: The darker color indicates a higher error value.

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The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections and observed evolution, May-August, 2020

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[1] Correspondence: Caroline Stein – Rua Ramiro Barcelos, No. 2400, 2o andar, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil. Postcode: 90035-003 E-mail: caroline.stein@ufrgs.br