The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections and observed evolution, May-August, 2020

Abstract

Objective  To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications.

Methods  The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths.

Results  The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively.

Conclusion  Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

Coronavirus Infections; Disease Transmission, Infectious; Forecasting; Pandemics; Brazil; Time Series Studies