Temporal trend and spatial analysis of breast cancer mortality in Paraná, 2012-2021

Tendencia temporal y análisis espacial de la mortalidad por cáncer de mama en Paraná, Brasil, 2012-2021

Objectives  To analyze the temporal trend and identify spatial clusters of breast cancer mortality in Paraná state between 2012 and 2021.

Methods  This was a time series study, with spatial analysis of breast cancer mortality rates in the 399 municipalities of Paraná. Data were selected from the Mortality Information System. Time series analysis was performed using the Prais-Winsten autoregression method. The Getis-Ord Gi* technique was used to identify spatial clusters.

Results  A total of 8,819 breast cancer deaths were reported, with a rising trend in Paraná (annual percentage change [APC] +1.83; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 0.86; 2.82). The East macro-region of the state stood out (APC +4.27; 95%CI 2.27; 6.32). Spatial analysis showed areas with a higher standardized mortality rate in the West and North macro-regions and areas with a lower rate in the East macro-region.

Conclusion  In the period 2012-2021, there was an increase in breast cancer deaths in Paraná. Trend analysis showed that the phenomenon grew mainly in the East macro-region. In the spatial analysis, the West and North macro-regions had the highest concentration of the event. These results indicate areas in need of immediate intervention in the state.

Keywords
Mortality; Breast Cancer; Women’s Health; Spatial Analysis; Time Series Studies