Risk mapping of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil

Azevedo, Thiago Salomão de; Lorenz, Camila; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco

doi:10.1590/0037-8682-0240-2019

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Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical

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Sumário

Short Communication • Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop. 52 • 2019 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0240-2019 copy

Risk mapping of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

INTRODUCTION:

Brazil experiences a large number of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases. Our objective was to examine both spatial patterns of dispersion and space-time trends for this disease.

METHODS:

We used all autochthonous confirmed cases of VL in Brazil from 2001 to 2017.

RESULTS:

Throughout Brazil, 53,715 human cases of VL were recorded. The Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest regions of Brazil were the most affected areas and presented a higher risk of transmission. Regarding spatiotemporal variation, significant differences were observed each year, with a peak in 2005.

CONCLUSIONS:

The dynamics of VL showed a clear non-random pattern of spread in Brazil.

Keywords:
Mann-Kendall; Surface; Epidemiology; Spatiotemporal; Cluster

Brazilian Regions	States	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
North	Acre (AC)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Amapá (AP)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.00
	Amazonas (AM)	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Pará (PA)	0.84	1.22	2.24	4.42	5.28	5.53	4.98	5.34	3.94	3.73	4.54	3.41	3.26	2.91	3.42	4.21	5.99
	Rondônia (RO)	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.21	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.13	0.00	0.12	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Roraima (RR)	1.19	1.15	2.80	4.19	2.81	0.99	0.25	0.48	1.19	3.33	2.61	2.13	4.10	2.82	3.16	7.00	6.70
	Tocantins (TO)	12.41	18.06	20.97	12.20	13.56	17.79	32.24	34.67	34.05	25.59	35.48	24.05	18.94	11.49	12.80	13.96	16.51

Northeast	Piauí (PI)	0.38	4.63	12.36	12.02	10.97	7.66	8.07	8.36	5.26	4.95	6.71	6.06	6.43	8.67	7.37	5.54	8.08
	Maranhão (MA)	6.11	9.00	13.21	10.23	9.03	7.91	6.59	9.13	6.85	6.66	7.22	5.02	10.29	8.22	8.53	10.22	11.80
	Alagoas (AL)	1.34	4.14	1.82	1.68	1.63	1.51	0.99	0.83	0.99	1.09	1.15	0.95	0.76	1.18	1.32	0.75	1.37
	Bahia (BA)	0.90	1.35	2.57	3.30	3.72	2.69	1.63	1.34	2.31	2.68	2.70	2.02	1.94	3.00	2.28	1.31	1.71
	Ceará (CE)	0.20	0.25	2.50	2.97	3.77	6.68	6.28	6.20	7.71	6.06	6.79	4.31	4.86	5.94	5.18	3.55	3.94
	Paraíba(PB)	1.61	0.17	0.68	0.56	0.64	0.94	0.63	0.75	0.40	0.61	0.79	0.55	0.72	1.29	0.98	0.76	0.99
	Pernambuco (PE)	0.10	0.77	0.71	0.86	0.74	0.71	0.73	0.87	0.78	0.65	0.64	0.50	0.52	1.19	1.33	0.86	1.07
	Rio Grande do Norte (RN)	1.99	0.46	1.28	1.66	1.30	1.74	1.96	2.35	2.68	2.24	3.19	2.60	1.99	2.50	1.51	1.30	1.92
	Sergipe (SE)	2.04	1.25	0.75	1.60	1.88	1.85	3.30	1.70	2.03	3.87	2.87	2.42	2.14	2.88	2.94	2.30	3.02

Southeast	Espírito Santo (ES)	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.12	0.03	0.00	0.06	0.14	0.09	0.20	0.00	0.05	0.03	0.20	0.28	0.62
	Minas Gerais (MG)	0.46	1.65	1.80	3.01	2.28	2.09	2.08	2.45	2.45	2.54	2.19	1.68	1.52	1.73	2.16	2.53	3.75
	Rio de Janeiro (RJ)	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.02	0.02
	São Paulo (SP)	0.04	0.25	0.40	0.33	0.36	0.60	0.59	0.64	0.44	0.42	0.44	0.50	0.40	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.30

South	Paraná (PR)	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.06	0.04
	Rio Grande do Sul (RS)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.02	0.08
	Santa Catarina (SC)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06

Midwest	Goiás (GO)	0.04	0.27	0.45	0.33	0.34	0.51	0.37	0.45	0.51	0.60	0.41	0.36	0.44	0.63	0.50	0.42	0.62
	Mato Grosso (MT)	0.16	0.31	0.38	0.74	0.84	0.79	1.11	2.08	2.29	1.86	1.73	1.22	1.10	0.51	0.91	0.53	0.68
	Mato Grosso do Sul (MS)	2.37	8.64	9.03	10.73	10.70	10.33	10.03	10.42	8.02	8.95	10.63	12.15	9.27	5.74	4.12	4.38	5.25
	Distrito Federal (DF)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.09	0.21	0.12	0.23	0.23	0.12	0.31	0.26	0.11	0.04	0.10	0.20	0.03

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[1] Corresponding author: Dra. Camila Lorenz. e-mail:camilalorenz@usp.br