Spatiotemporal distribution of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome incidence in Brazil between 2012 and 2016

Abstract

INTRODUCTION:

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a major public health issue in Brazil. This ecological study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of notified new AIDS cases in Brazil between 2012 and 2016.

METHODS:

A Bayesian spatiotemporal model based on the Poisson distribution was used to obtain smoothed incidence estimates of AIDS in each of the 133 Brazilian intermediate regions.

RESULTS:

Spatial distribution of new AIDS cases is highly heterogeneous. Regions with higher gross domestic product per capita tend to have higher incidence rates of AIDS.

CONCLUSIONS:

Strategies to prevent and control AIDS should consider regional differences.

Keywords:
AIDS; Epidemiology; Spatial modeling