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Short Communication • Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop. 53 • 2020 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020   copy

Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract:

INTRODUCTION:

We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states.

METHODS:

We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period.

RESULTS:

The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state.

Conclusions:

The Holt’s model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.

Keywords:
COVID-19; Coronavirus disease; Forecasting; Statistical models; Epidemiology

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