Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, Volume: 55 Supplement 1, Published: 2022
  • HIV incidence estimates by sex and age group in the population aged 15 years or over, Brazil, 1986-2018 Major Article

    Szwarcwald, Célia Landmann; Souza Júnior, Paulo Roberto Borges de; Pascom, Ana Roberta Pati; Coelho, Ronaldo de Almeida; Ribeiro, Rachel Abrahão; Damacena, Giseli Nogueira; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Pimenta, Maria Cristina; Pereira, Gerson Fernandes Mendes

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION HIV incidence estimates are essential to monitor the progress of prevention and control interventions. METHODS Data collected by Brazilian surveillance systems were used to derive HIV incidence estimates by age group (15-24; 25+) and sex from 1986 to 2018. This study used a back-calculation method based on the first CD4 count among treatment-naïve cases. Incidence estimates for the population aged 15 years or over were compared to Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) estimates from 2000 to 2018. RESULTS Among young men (15-24 years), HIV incidence increased from 6,400 (95% CI: 4,900-8,400), in 2000, to 12,800 (95% CI: 10,800-15,900), in 2015, reaching incidence rates higher than 70/100,000 inhabitants and an annual growth rate of 3.7%. Among young women, HIV incidence decreased from 5,000 (95% CI: 4,200-6,100) to 3,200 (95% CI: 3,000-3,700). Men aged ≥25 years and both female groups showed significant annual decreases in incidence rates from 2000 to 2018. In 2018, the estimated number of new infections was 48,500 (95% CI: 45300-57500), 34,800 (95% CI: 32800-41500) men, 13,600 (95% CI: 12,500-16,000) women. Improvements in the time from infection to diagnosis and in the proportion of cases receiving antiretroviral therapy immediately after diagnosis were found for all groups. Comparison with GBD estimates shows similar rates for men with overlapping confidence intervals. Among women, differences are higher mainly in more recent years. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate that efforts to control the HIV epidemic are having an impact. However, there is an urgent need to address the vulnerability of young men.
  • Physical activity to prevent stroke mortality in Brazil (1990-2019) Major Article

    Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz Pinho; Marinho, Fatima; Naghavi, Mohsen; Malta, Deborah Carvalho

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to estimate the burden of stroke mortality due to low levels of physical activity (PA) in Brazil from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for Brazil and Brazilian states were used. We used the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rates, summary exposure value, and fraction of population risk attributable to low levels of PA. To standardize all estimates, data from the population aged 25 years or older were considered. RESULTS: The risk of exposure to low PA, SEV values, for the Brazilian male population was 11.8% (95%UI: 6.7; 19.9) and for the Brazilian female population was 13.2% (95%UI: 8.6; 19.2) in 2019. For males, it was estimated that there were, respectively, 2,025 (95%UI: 271; 4,839) and 3,595 (95%UI: 658; 7,302) deaths in 1990 and 2019 due to stroke attributable to low PA. For females, there were 2,518 (95%UI: 498; 5,006) and 4,735 (95%UI: 1,286; 8,495) deaths in 1990 and 2019 due to stroke attributable to low PA, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, reductions of 44.0% for males (95%UI: −0.54; -0.05) and 52.0% for females (95%UI: −0.60; -0.30) in age-standardized mortality rates due to stroke attributed to low PA were observed. Approximately 6.1% (for males) and 7.3% (for females) of deaths in 2019 due to stroke could be avoided if the Brazilian population were physically active. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the promotion of PA in all Brazilian states for preventing early mortality due to stroke.
  • Road traffic injuries and deaths and the achievement of UN Sustainable Development Goals in Brazil: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990 to 2019 Major Article

    Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Morais Neto, Otaliba Libânio de; Cardoso, Laís Santos de Magalhães; Veloso, Guilherme Augusto; Andrade, Fabiana Martins Dias de; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Lima, Cheila Marina de; Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz Pinho; Naghavi, Mohsen

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Brazil ranks 5th in the number of deaths due to road injuries. This study aimed to analyze mortality and disabilities resulting from road injuries in Brazil, and to assess the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target of reducing deaths due to road injuries by 50% by 2030. METHODS: This descriptive and exploratory study used the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019: indicators of mortality, premature deaths, and disabilities according to sex, age group, and type of transport for 1990, 2015, and 2019. Time trends in mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 were assessed, and a projection for 2030 was calculated, applying a linear regression model. RESULTS: Deaths due to road injuries were 44,236 in 1990, and 44,529 in 2019, representing a 43% reduction in mortality rates. The highest rates were in the North, Northeast, and Midwest regions of Brazil, in males and young adults. A 77% reduction was observed in mortality rates for pedestrians and an increase of 53% for motorcyclists and of 54% for cyclists during the period. In terms of motorcycle road injuries, the mortality rate for men increased from 7.3/100,000 (1990) to 11.7/100,000 inhabitants (2019). The rates of premature deaths and disabilities were also higher for men when compared to women. Amputations, fractures, spinal cord injuries, and head trauma were the main types of road injuries. The projections for 2030 show that Brazil might not reach the SDG target. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the decline in mortality rates, the 2030 Agenda’s target might not be achieved.
  • Burden of disease attributable to Risk Factors in Brazil: an analysis of national and subnational estimates from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study Major Article

    Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Felisbino-Mendes, Mariana Santos; Machado, Ísis Eloah; Veloso, Guilherme Augusto; Gomes, Crizian Saar; Brant, Luisa Campos Caldeira; Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz Pinho; Oliveira, Patrícia Pereira Vasconcelos de; Flor, Luisa Sorio; Gakidou, Emmanuela

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Monitoring trends in risk factors (RFs) and the burden of diseases attributable to exposure to RFs is an important measure to identify public health advances and current inadequate efforts. Objective: Analyze the global burden of disease attributable to exposure RFs in Brazil, and its changes from 1990 to 2019, according to the sex and age group. METHODS: This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease study. The Summary Exposure Value, which represents weighted prevalence by risk, was used to estimate exposure to RFs. The mortality and DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) measurements were used to estimate the burden of diseases. For comparisons by year and between Brazilian states, age-standardized rates were used. RESULTS: Arterial hypertension was the factor responsible for most deaths in both sexes. For DALYs, the most important RF was the high body mass index (BMI) for women and alcohol consumption for men. Smoking had a substantial reduction in the attributable burden of deaths in the period. An important reduction was identified in the exposure to RFs related to socioeconomic development, such as unsafe water, lack of sanitation, and child malnutrition. Metabolic RFs, such as high BMI, hypertension, and alcohol consumption showed an increase in the attributable burden. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings point to an increase in metabolic RFs, which are the main RFs for mortality and DALYs. These results can help to consolidate and strengthen public policies that promote healthy lifestyles, thus reducing disease and death.
  • Burden of Cardiovascular diseases attributable to risk factors in Brazil: data from the "Global Burden of Disease 2019" study Major Article

    Brant, Luisa Campos Caldeira; Nascimento, Bruno Ramos; Veloso, Guilherme Augusto; Gomes, Crizian Saar; Polanczyk, Carisi; Oliveira, Gláucia Maria Moraes de; Flor, Luisa Sorio; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz Pinho; Malta, Deborah Carvalho

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: To better understand trends in the main cause of death in Brazil, we sought to analyze the burden of cardiovascular risk factors (RF) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) attributable to specific RFs in Brazil from 1990 to 2019, using the estimates from the GBD 2019 study. METHODS: To estimate RF exposure, the Summary Exposure Value (SEV) was used, whereas for disease burden attributed to RF, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) due to CVD were used. For comparisons over time and between states, we compared age-standardized rates. The sociodemographic index (SDI) was used as a marker of socioeconomic conditions. RESULTS: In 2019, 83% of CVD mortality in Brazil was attributable to RF. For SEV, there was a reduction in smoking and environmental RF, but an increase in metabolic RF. High systolic blood pressure and dietary risks continue to be the main RF for CVD mortality and DALY. While there was a decline in age-standardized mortality rates attributable to the evaluated RF, there was also a stability or increase in crude mortality rates, with the exception of smoking. It is important to highlight the increase in the risk of death attributable to a high body mass index. Regarding the analysis per state, SEVs and mortality attributable to RF were higher in those states with lower SDIs. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the reduction in CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to RF, the stability or increase in crude rates attributable to metabolic RFs is worrisome, requiring investments and a renewal of health policies.
  • Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in a large Brazilian urban center Major Article

    Ribeiro, Edmar Geraldo; Pinheiro, Pedro Cisalpino; Nascimento, Bruno Ramos; Cacique, João Pedro Pereira; Teixeira, Renato Azeredo; Nascimento, Jamil de Souza; Franco, Tulio Batista; Brant, Luisa Campos Caldeira; Malta, Deborah Carvalho

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a great impact on the behavior of individuals and the organization of health systems. This study analyzed the COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on public hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in a large city in Brazil, Belo Horizonte, MG, with approximately 2.5 million inhabitants. METHODS: In a time-series analysis, this study used administrative data from the national “Hospital Information System” from 2010 to February 2020 to estimate the expected number of hospitalizations for CVD by month during the COVID-19 pandemic in Belo Horizonte in 2020 using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model. For CVD, this study compared the expected number of hospital admissions, intensive care use, deaths during hospitalization, and mean length of stay with the observed number during the period. RESULTS: There were 6,517 hospitalizations for CVD from March to December 2020, a decrease of 16.3% (95% CI: 4.7-25.3) compared to the projected. The number of intensive care hospitalizations for CVD fell 24.1% (95% CI 13-32.7). The number of deaths also decreased (17.4% [80% CI: 0 - 0.30]), along with the reduction in hospitalizations, as did the length of stay for CVD hospitalizations. These reductions, however, were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalizations for CVD were 16.3% lower than expected in a large Brazilian city, possibly due to the fear of getting infected or going to hospitals. Public campaigns informing how to proceed in case of CVD show that prompt urgent attention is essential to mitigate the indirect effects of the pandemic on CVD.
  • Health impacts caused by excessive sodium consumption in Brazil: results of the GBD 2019 study Major Article

    Guedes, Larissa Fernanda Fonseca; Felisbino-Mendes, Mariana Santos; Vegi, Aline Siqueira Fogal; Meireles, Adriana Lúcia; Menezes, Mariana Carvalho de; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Machado, Ísis Eloah

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Excessive sodium consumption is associated with increased blood pressure, which is an important risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs). This study therefore aimed to describe the burden of NCDs attributable to excessive sodium consumption among Brazilians. METHODS: This observational study used mortality and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) rates, and their respective uncertainty intervals (UI), from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). The burden was obtained by the population attributable fraction of each NCD, considering the minimum theoretical value of risk (intake of 0-3g of sodium/day); the excessive consumption proportion in the population, obtained through population inquiries; and the relative risks obtained through meta-analyses. RESULTS: Excessive sodium consumption was the third highest dietary risk contributing to deaths (30,814; 95% UI = 2,034 - 84,130) and DALYs (699,119; 95% UI= 43,130 - 1,914,066) in 2019. States from the Northeast region had the highest age-standardized rates of deaths and DALYs, and the male population was more affected by NCDs caused by excessive sodium consumption. Cardiovascular diseases were the main contributing factors in the burden attributable to excessive sodium consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of the progress in addressing NCDs related to this risk factor, the impact remains high, especially among men and in the Northeast region. More effective measures are needed to reduce sodium in industrialized products, such as health promotion actions to combat sodium consumption, in order to prevent and control NCDs in Brazil.
  • Trend of the Burden of Larynx Cancer in Brazil, 1990 to 2019 Major Article

    Viana, Luciana de Paula; Bustamante-Teixeira, Maria Teresa; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Mooney, Meghan; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nogueira, Mário Círio; Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo; Guerra, Maximiliano Ribeiro

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Larynx cancer is one of the most common head and neck cancers, whose main risk factors are smoking and alcohol use, and its occurrence and prognosis depend on adequate and timely preventive measures. This study aimed to investigate the burden of larynx cancer in Brazil and its states. METHODS: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, this study analyzed the trends of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for larynx cancer between 1990 and 2019, besides the mortality-to-incidence ratio and the socio demographic index. RESULTS: Incidence and mortality due to larynx cancer in Brazil, which are approximately eight-fold higher for men, showed a declining trend between 1990 and 2019 (APPC: -0.4% and -1.0%, respectively). The DALYs also showed negative variation between 1990 and 2019 for both sexes in Brazil, mainly due to the decrease in premature deaths, with the greatest reduction in the state of São Paulo. For the states of Brazil in 2019, the higher age-standardized incidence rate (Rio Grande do Sul, 3.83 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) is twice the lowest rate (Piauí, 1.56 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). CONCLUSIONS: A fall in the burden of larynx cancer was observed in Brazil over the past 30 years, which may be attributed to a reduction in smoking and to an improvement in treatment. However, the regional inequalities in the country remain evident, especially for males. This data can guide public policy priorities to control the disease in Brazil.
  • The increasing burden of pancreatic cancer in Brazil from 2000 to 2019: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Major Article

    Chaves, Diogo Oliveira; Bastos, Aline Cândida; Almeida, Alessandra Maciel; Guerra, Maximiliano Ribeiro; Teixeira, Maria Teresa Bustamante; Melo, Ana Paula Souto; Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Pancreatic cancer is increasing worldwide. The burden of pancreatic cancer in Brazil and its states was analyzed and compared with that from the USA and China. METHODS: This is a descriptive study of the incidence and mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, from 2000 to 2019. The Brazilian states presenting the highest and lowest socio-demographic index (SDI) were selected from each of the five regions. The SDI consists of the per capita income, education, and fertility rate of each population. RESULTS: A significant increase was found in age-standardized incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in all three countries, with differences in magnitude and annual increases. In Brazil, this incidence rose from 5.33 [95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 5.06- 5.51] to 6.16 (95% UI: 5.68- 6.53) per 100,000 inhabitants. China and the Brazilian states with the lowest SDI, such as Pará and Maranhão, showed lower incidence and mortality rates, although presenting the highest annual increases. No difference was found between the sexes. A higher mortality rate was observed for those individuals of 70+ years, which was three to four times higher than those aged 50 to 69 years. CONCLUSIONS: The increasing burden of pancreatic cancer in the studied countries, and the higher estimates for the elderly in a fast-aging country such as Brazil, indicates that more resources and health policies will be necessary. The greatest increase in the states with lower SDI reflects inequalities in the access to diagnosis and registries of this cancer.
  • Exposure to and Burden of Major Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors in Brazil and its States, 1990-2019: The Global Burden of Disease Study Major Article

    Stein, Caroline; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Cousin, Ewerton; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Naghavi, Mohsen; Oliveira, Patrícia Pereira Vasconcelos de; Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz Pinho; Duncan, Bruce B.

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) have become the main cause of disease burden in Brazil. Our objective was to describe trends (1990 to 2019) in prevalence and attributable burden of five modifiable risk factors and related metabolic risk factors in Brazil and its states. METHODS: In Global Burden of Disease 2019 analyses, we described trends in prevalence of modifiable risk factors and their metabolic mediators as percentage change in Summary Exposure Value (SEV). We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to the risk factors. RESULTS: Age-adjusted exposures to alcohol [41.0%, Uncertainty Interval (UI): 24.2 - 63.4], red meat (61.2%, UI: 42.4-92.3), low physical activity (3.9%, UI: -5-17.5) and ambient particulate matter pollution (3.3%, UI: -48.9-128.0) have worsened. Those for smoking (-51.4%, UI: -54.7- - 47.8), diet low in fruits (-28.1%, UI: -39.1- -18.7) and vegetables (-19.6%, UI: -32.7 - -8.7), and household air pollution (-85.3%, UI: -92.9- -74.3) have improved. All mediating metabolic risk factors, except high blood pressure (0.7%, UI: -6.9-8.3), have worsened: BMI (110.2%, UI: 78.6-161.7), hyperglycemia (15.1%, UI: 9.3-21.2), kidney dysfunction (12.0%, UI: 8.4-17.2), and high LDL-c (11.8%, UI: 6.9-17.2). CONCLUSIONS: A variable pattern of progress and failure in controlling modifiable risk factors has been accompanied by major worsening in most metabolic risk factors. The mixed success in public health measures to control modifiable risk factors for NCDs, when gauged by the related trends in metabolic risk factors, alert to the need for stronger actions to control NCDs in the future.
  • Prostate cancer mortality in Brazil 1990-2019: geographical distribution and trends Major Article

    Iser, Daniel Albrecht; Cobalchini, Guilherme Ranzi; Oliveira, Max Moura de; Teixeira, Renato; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Naghavi, Mohsen; Iser, Betine Pinto Moehlecke

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: To analyze the trend of prostate cancer mortality in the Brazilian population of 40 years of age and above. METHODS: Time series ecological study of the mortality rates due to prostate cancer in men of 40 years of age and above, using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD). Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated, as well as the age-standardized rates by the GBD for the global population, per 100,000 inhabitants, for Brazil and its States, from 1990 to 2019. The annual average percent change (AAPC) was calculated to identify the mortality trends in Brazil, through linear regression using the Joinpoint Regression Program. RESULTS: The standardized rates of prostate cancer mortality in Brazil were 76.89 in 1990 and 74.96 deaths for every 100 thousand men ≥ 40 years of age in 2019, with a stability trend. By age group, it was observed a decreasing trend up to 79 years of age, and an increasing trend as of 80 years of age. The state of Bahia showed the highest increase in mortality in the period (1.2%/year), followed by Maranhão and Pernambuco (1.0 and 0.9%/year). A decrease of prostate cancer mortality was found in the Federal District, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima, Santa Catarina, São Paulo, and Sergipe. CONCLUSIONS: In Brazil, the standardized mortality rates show a trend toward stability from 1990 to 2019 and no pattern was observed for the trends according to the Brazilian States.
  • Maternal Mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Major Article

    Leal, Lisiane Freitas; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Souza, Maria de Fatima Marinho; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Teixeira, Renato Azeredo; Veloso, Guilherme Augusto; Lansky, Sônia; Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz Pinho; França, Giovanny Vinícius Araújo de; Naghavi, Mohsen

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION Maternal death continues to be one of the most challenging public health problems that needs to be addressed in low and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to describe the problem of maternal death in Brazil, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). METHODS This study used data from the GBD 2019 to show the numbers of deaths and the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) - number of deaths/100,000 live births - in Brazil and its 27 Federated Units (FU), for ages 10 to 54 years, from 1990 to 2019. The annual variation of the MMR was estimated in 1990, 2010, and 2019. The MMR were shown for specific causes as well as for five-year age groups. The estimates were presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). RESULTS The number of maternal deaths, as well as the MMR showed a 49% reduction from 1990 to 2019. This reduction occurred heterogeneously throughout the country, and the profile of the MMR for specific causes changed between 1990 and 2019: from hypertensive gestation diseases, to indirect maternal deaths, followed by hypertensive gestation diseases. In the extreme age groups, the MMR is higher, with mortality increasing exponentially in direct proportion with age. CONCLUSIONS Maternal deaths in Brazil have decreased substantially since 1990; however, the numbers still fall short of what was established by the World Health Organization (WHO). Indirect causes are the greatest problem in more than 60% of the FU, especially for hypertensive pregnancy diseases.
  • Burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to dietary risks in Brazil, 1990-2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Major Article

    Machado, Ísis Eloah; Parajára, Magda do Carmo; Guedes, Larissa Fernanda Fonseca; Meireles, Adriana Lúcia; Menezes, Mariana Carvalho de; Felisbino-Mendes, Mariana Santos; Verly-Junior, Eliseu; Malta, Deborah Carvalho

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: An unhealthy diet is a modifiable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), one of the most important public health problems in Brazil. This study aimed to analyze the burden of NCDs attributable to dietary risks in Brazil between 1990-2019. METHODS: Secondary data from the Global Burden of Disease Study were used to estimate the burden attributable to fifteen dietary risks in Brazil. The main sources of data for Brazil were national surveys and international databases. A comparative risk assessment was used to obtain the population attributable fraction. We described the intake of each dietary risk and the distribution of number and rates of deaths and Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to diet by sex, age, state, and year from 1990-2019. RESULTS: Cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and neoplasms were the main NCDs attributable to an unhealthy diet. Age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates attributable to unhealthy diet decreased between 1990-2019 (-51.5% and -48.8, respectively). Diet high in red meat and sodium, and low in whole grains were the three main risk factors contributing to the burden of NCDs both in 1990 and 2019. The burden of NCDs was higher among males in the middle-aged population (around 50 years), as well as in the states of Maranhão, Rio de Janeiro, and Alagoas. CONCLUSIONS: The present study found a suboptimum diet among the Brazilian population. The major contributors to this burden were diet high in red meat and sodium and low in whole grains. This study supports priorities in public policies on food and nutrition to reduce the burden of NCDs.
  • Excess Mortality due to natural causes among whites and blacks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil Major Article

    Teixeira, Renato Azeredo; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Torens, Ana; França, Elisabeth Barboza; Ishitani, Lenice; Bierrenbach, Ana Luiza; Abreu, Daisy Maria Xavier de; Marinho, Fátima

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Excess Mortality by all causes considers deaths directly related to COVID-19 and those attributed to conditions caused by the pandemic. When stratified by social dimensions, such as race/color, it allows for the evaluation of more vulnerable populations. The study estimated the excess mortality by natural causes, separating the white and black populations in 2020. METHODS Public civil registration data on deaths observed in 2020, corrected for under registration, were used. The expected number of deaths was estimated based on the mortality rates observed in 2019, applied to the estimated population in 2020. The difference between the values expected and observed and the proportion of excess was considered the excess mortality. RESULTS: The present study found an excess of 270,321 deaths (22.2% above the expected) in 2020. Every state of Brazil reported deaths above the corresponding expected figure. The excess was higher for men (25.2%) than for women (19.0%). Blacks showed an excess of 27.8%, as compared to whites at 17.6%. In both sexes and all age groups, excess was higher in the black population, especially in the South, Southeast, and Midwest regions. São Paulo, the largest in population number, had twice as much excess death in the black population (25.1%) than in the white population (11.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The present study showed racial disparities in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. The higher excess found for the black suggests an intrinsic relationship with the socioeconomic situation, further exposing the Brazilian reality, in which social and structural inequality is evident.
  • Prevalence, incidence, and years-lived with disability due to oral disorders in Brazil: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Major Article

    Hugo, Fernando Neves; Bailey, Jordan A; Stein, Caroline; Cunha, Amanda Ramos da; Iser, Betine Pinto Moehlecke; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Giordani, Jessye Melgarejo do Amaral; Hilgert, Juliana Balbinot; Abreu, Lucas Guimarães; Kassebaum, Nicholas J

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION Epidemiological surveys revealed that Brazil has a high burden of oral diseases. However, no prior study has reported estimates of untreated dental caries, periodontitis, and edentulism over a three-decade period. The objective of this study is to report the trends of prevalence, incidence, and years-lived with disability (YLDs) due to untreated dental caries in primary and permanent teeth, periodontitis, and edentulism in Brazil between 1990 and 2019. METHODS Estimates of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs due to dental caries in primary and permanent teeth, periodontitis, and edentulism were produced for Brazil, by sex and age, between 1990 and 2019, using Dismod-MR 2.1, as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Trends of oral disorders were analyzed using generalized linear regression models applying the Prais-Winsten method. RESULTS Almost 100 million Brazilians presented at least one oral disorder in 2019, which was equivalent to a prevalence of 45.3%. All oral diseases combined ranked eighth among all causes of disability, causing more than 970,000 YLDs. Untreated dental caries in primary teeth were estimated to affect 13.5 million children, and untreated dental caries in permanent teeth affected more than 52 million people. Periodontitis affected 29.5 million people, and edentulism affected almost 22 million. The generalized linear regression models revealed a trend of stability of oral disorders between 1990 and 2019. CONCLUSIONS The burden of oral diseases in Brazil is extremely high. Oral disorders, edentulism in particular, caused disability at levels that are comparable to other important chronic diseases.
  • The burden of low back pain, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, and gout and their respective attributable risk factors in Brazil: results of the GBD 2017 study Major Article

    Wolf, Juliana; França, Elisabeth Barboza; Assunção, Ada Ávila

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders are a major cause of disability worldwide. Different modifiable risk factors are associated to these disorders. The objective of this study was to analyze the burden of low back pain (LBP), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), osteoarthritis (OA), and gout, attributable to risk factors, in 2017. METHODS: The burden of LBP, RA, OA, and gout, and attributable risk factors were analyzed using data extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Brasil-2017 study. Descriptive analysis was conducted to compare disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates between sexes and age groups (15-49 and 50-69 years), in 2017. RESULTS: The highest rates of DALY due to LBP were attributed to occupational ergonomic factors in the 15-49-year group, regardless of sex and males aged 50-69 years, whereas smoking was the major contributor in the 50-69-year female group. RA-related DALY rates were attributed to smoking and were higher among women aged 50-69 years. High body mass index (BMI) was the most relevant risk factor for the burden of OA, with higher rates detected in the 50-69-year group, and it was the most significant risk factor for DALY rate attributed to gout, regardless of sex or age group. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational surveillance measures are indicated to prevent LBP. Actions to decrease smoking and overweight, and the surveillance of weight gain are warranted to decrease the burden of LBP, RA and OA, and gout, respectively. These actions will be more effective if age and sex differentials are considered in planning.
  • Incidence and mortality rates of lip, oral cavity, and pharynx cancers in Brazil: time-trend and age-period-cohort analysis from the last 30 years, Global Burden of Disease Study Major Article

    Romagna, Daniel Volpato; Oliveira, Max Moura de; Abreu, Lucas Guimarães; Stein, Caroline; Hugo, Fernando Neves; Teixeira, Renato; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Naghavi, Mohsen; Iser, Betine Pinto Moehlecke

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Cancers are the second main cause of morbidity worldwide, but robust information on lip, oral cavity, and pharynx cancers in Brazil is lacking. This study aimed to analyze the trends of incidence and mortality caused by lip, oral cavity, and pharynx cancers and age-period-cohort effects in the Brazilian population of 30 years of age and over, in the period of 1990 to 2019. METHODS: A time series study of the incidence and mortality rates for oral cavity and pharynx cancer (“Lip and oral cavity cancer”, “Nasopharynx cancer”, and “Other pharynx cancer”) was conducted, with corrected data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants, for the global population, were gathered according to the individuals’ sex. The annual average percentage change (AAPC) was estimated, as was the age-period-cohort effects. RESULTS: The incidence and mortality rates were higher for men in the studied anatomical regions. The cancers tended to decrease for men, except for nasopharynx cancer, which increased in individuals of both sexes. Mortality tended to present a decline in most of the groups studied. For men and women, the age-period-cohort model presented a better adjustment for both incidence and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence and mortality caused by the main head and neck cancers showed a tendency to decline over the past 30 years in Brazil, except for nasopharynx cancer, which showed an increase in incidence and mortality in some segments of the population. Higher rates were found for lip and oral cavity cancers in men.
  • Mortality and years of life lost to death or disability by interpersonal violence against women in Brazil: Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990 and 2019 Major Article

    Pinto, Isabella Vitral; Vasconcelos, Nádia Machado de; Corassa, Rafael Bello; Naghavi, Mohsen; Marinho, Fatima; Malta, Deborah Carvalho

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION Aggression against women is an important cause of morbidity and death. This study compares the variation of deaths and years of life lost to death or disability (DALY) caused by interpersonal violence against women in Brazil and its states. METHODS This descriptive study analyzed estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) referring to interpersonal violence against women, aged 15 to 49 years, examining the mortality and DALY rates for Brazil and its states, in 1990 and 2019. RESULTS In this study, 3,168 deaths of women between 15 and 49 years of age, caused by interpersonal violence, were estimated in 1990, and 4,262 in 2019, which represents an increase of 33.8%. Regardless of the Maria da Penha Law and the progress in policies for curbing violence against women, one can observe a stability in the mortality and DALY rates in most of the Brazilian states. Only Bahia had a significant increase in those rates, while Federal District, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo showed a significant decline. CONCLUSIONS The rates of female homicide have remained stable when comparing 1990 and 2019. Although there were improvements in terms of women’s rights in the early 2000’s, the chauvinist and conservative society of Brazil has not been able to protect women, and the country might not reach the targets established by the UN’s 2030 Agenda.
  • The burden of suicide in Brazil: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Major Article

    Bonadiman, Cecília Silva Costa; Naghavi, Mohsen; Melo, Ana Paula Souto

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Suicide deaths varies according to location, sex, and age. This study analyzed the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) concerning suicide in Brazil. METHODS: This study described the mortality and years of life lost (YLL) due to premature death caused by suicide in Brazil in 1990 and 2019. The numbers, crude and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and YLL were compared among Brazilian states, age groups, and sexes. RESULTS: There were 13,502 suicides in Brazil in 2019, 46.00% more than in 1990. The crude mortality rate increased 0.32%, while the ASMR declined -21.68% during the period. Crude and age-standardized YLL rates declined by -7.24% and -18.38%, respectively. In 2019, the biggest ASMRs were found in the South, whereas from 1990 to 2019, the ASMR declined in the South, Southeast, and Midwest, and increased in the Northeast. The number of suicides was higher among individuals aged 15-49 years, and suicide rates were higher among those aged over 70 years. From 1990 to 2019, an increase in the rate was found only of 10-14 years of age. Suicide was highest in men, except in the 10-14-year age group, ranking third in mortality among men of 15-34 years of age and fourth among women of 15-24 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The ASMR and YLL for suicide declined since 1990, but suicide remains an important factor of mortality in the country. The South Region, men, elderly, and youth should be priorities in the implementation of suicide prevention strategies in Brazil.
  • The burden of mental disorders attributable by cocaine use: Global Burden of Diseases Study in Brazil, 1990 and 2019 Major Article

    Crepalde, Rayce dos Santos; Bonadiman, Cecília Silva Costa; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Naghavi, Mohsen; Melo, Ana Paula Souto

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Brazil is an important consumer market for cocaine. However, the consequences of this consumption and the pattern of distribution of the estimates are still poorly studied in the Brazilian states. The Global Burden of Disease study - 2019 (GBD-2019) has enabled us to describe and analyze indicators of mental disorders (MD) attributable by cocaine use in Brazil and its states, in 1990 and 2019. METHODS: A descriptive study of the burden of cocaine use disorders, using prevalence, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), years of life lost (YLL) due to premature death, years lived with disabilities (YLD), and disability adjusted life years (DALY), which accounts for YLL+YLD. RESULTS: Brazil ranks 8th as DALYs due to cocaine use disorder in the world (42.83/100.000; 95% uncertainty intervals [95% UI]: 35.28 to 61.43). Significant increases have occurred in the age-standardized rate prevalence (ASRP), ASMR, DALY, YLD, and YLL, in Brazil and its states, between 1990 and 2019. The ASRP in 2019 was 2.7-fold higher for men (278.60/100.000; 95% UI: 208.20 to 374.39) in comparison to women (104.01/100.000; 95% UI: 76.70 to 143.02). There is a predominance of YLD in the composition of DALYs; however, the YLL had the biggest increases between 1990 and 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The high rate of DALYs and the increase in mortality rates show the need to scale up effective interventions to prevent and reduce the burden of disease attributable to cocaine use disorder, which is a preventable cause of death and disability.
  • Suicide mortality among older adults in Brazil between 2000 and 2019 - estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Major Article

    Pires, Ademar Moreira; Reis, Júlia Gondim Maia; Garcia, Flávia Megda; Veloso, Guilherme Augusto; Melo, Ana Paula Souto; Naghavi, Mohsen; Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: Older adults present a higher risk of suicide, and Brazil is experiencing a fast population aging. To understand the impact of demographic transition, we compared Brazilian suicide mortality rates (MR) among adults (50+ years) with global rates, those from one high-income country, and those from one middle-income country. Looking for regional disparities, the MR was analyzed among older adults (60+ years) by Brazilian states. METHODS: This was an ecological study based on estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study, from 2000 to 2019. Age-standardized MR and age-specific MR per 100,000 inhabitants were described, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). RESULTS: During the period, the annual estimates and the declining trend in mortality were higher in the world than in the studied countries. In 2019, global age-standardized MR was 9.39 (95% UI 8.48-10.29), compared to 5.68 (95% UI 5.40-6.19), 6.01 (95% UI 5.10-7.04), and 6.63 (95% UI 6.43-6.95) in Brazil, Mexico, and England, respectively. In Brazil, despite a significant decline in national rates, stability was observed in 15 states. An increase in aging was only found for men, who presented 3-4 times higher MR than women. The states’ rates presented large differences: in 2019, the rates among men aged 60-64 years varied from 7.24 (95% UI 5.31; 9.85) to 26.32 (95% UI 20.21; 34.50). CONCLUSIONS: The smaller decline in suicide mortality among older Brazilian adults, the increasing risk with aging, and the higher mortality among men indicate the need for specific prevention policies. The variation within states suggests differences in the data quality or in socio-cultural and historical aspects, which requires further investigation.
  • Premature mortality due to four main non-communicable diseases and suicide in Brazil and its states from 1990 to 2019: A Global Burden of Disease Study Major Article

    Cousin, Ewerton; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Stein, Caroline; Aquino, Érika Carvalho de; Gouvea, Ellen de Cassia Dutra Pozzetti; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Naghavi, Mohsen; Duncan, Bruce B.

    Abstract in English:

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: The goal of reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires close monitoring. Our objective is to characterize the decline of premature NCD mortality in Brazil based on Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019 estimates. METHODS: We used GBD 2019 data to estimate death rates of the four main NCDs - cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. We estimated the unconditional probability of death between ages 30 to 69, as recommended by the World Health Organization, as well as premature crude- and age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost for these conditions. We also estimated trends in suicide (self-harm) death rates. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized unconditional probability of premature death declined -1.4%/year (UI: -1.7%;-1.0%) . Age-standardized death rates declined -1.5%/year (UI: -1.9%; -1.2%), and crude death rates -0.6%/year (UI: (-1.0%; -0.2%). Level of development correlated strongly with the rate of decline, with greatest declines occurring in the Southeast, Center West and South regions. Age-standardized mortality from self-harm declined, most notably in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality due to the main NCDs has declined from 1990 in Brazil, although at a diminishing rate over time. The unconditional probability of death and the age-standardized mortality rate produced similar estimates of decline for the four main NCDs, and mirror well decline in mortality from all NCDs. Declines, especially more recent ones, fall short of the international goals. Strategic public health actions are needed. The challenge to implement them will be great, considering the political and economic instability currently faced by Brazil.
  • Disease burden in Brazil and its states. Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Editorial

    Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Carneiro, Mariângela; Gomes, Crizian Saar; Ribeiro, Antônio Luiz Pinho
  • Erratum Erratum

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