Abstract
The paper proposes an exploratory analysis on the determinants of voting for presidency in the two rounds of 2014’ Brazilian elections, based on the results of the Brazilian Electoral Study (ESEB). From the most relevant findings of the extensive recent literature on the subject, we outlined a general explanatory model of voting for president, with 15 variables covering contextual, sociodemographic, retrospective/prospective evaluation, sociotropic/egotropic and political identity explanations. The variables were included in a multinomial logistic model in the first round (vote for Dilma, Aécio or Marina), and in a binary logistic model in the second round (vote for Dilma or Aécio). The results indicate the retrospective features of voting behavior in the last presidential election: the evaluation on the Dilma Rousseff's government proved to be a good predictor of the vote in both rounds. The judgment on the government's performance has been dissociated, however, of the assessment about the economic situation of the country, suggesting that the perceptions on other public policies must have driven the positive evaluation of the government. The party identification was confirmed as an important cognitive shortcut, the Bolsa Familia had significant effects only in the second round, and sociodemographic variables showed little relevance. The retrospective nature of voting behavior, rewarding or punishing the government's candidate based on the analysis of its performance, seems to be a more complex factor than previously thought, as it is not restricted to the evaluation of the economic scenario or the direct participation of the voter in the Bolsa Família Program.
KEYWORDS:
ESEB; 2014’ presidential elections; voting behavior; vote; Dilma Rousseff
Fonte: Os autores.