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Comparecimento eleitoral na América Latina: uma análise multinível comparada

Because of its centrality in the democratic system, the voter participation is privileged object of many political scientists. In general, the studies focus on the reality of developed countries, addressing, among other topics, the turnout and its determinants. There are few studies that address, or at least consistently, the third wave of democratic regimes, especially the Latin American countries. Looking to contribute to fill this gap, this paper sought to map the determinants of voter turnout in Latin America, breaking the dichotomy macro vs. micro, integrating them into a single analytical model. We use data from Latinobarometer in its 2009 round, which extract variables on the micro level (individual) and a database with macro information about countries where voter live. These late measures summarize the situation of country’s economy, characteristics of their electoral systems and the situation of political and individual freedoms among others. The data were combined in multilevel logistic regression model using the HLM 6.8 software. The ecological dimension appears as important, with the increase in urban population implies increased chances of voter attend, while GDP growth implies a reduction in the probability. From the point of view of the legislative setting, be bicameral reduces the chances of voter turn-out at the polls. Moreover, the compulsory voting significantly increases the turnout. As for the individual variables, the increase in years of life is accompanied by an increase in electoral participation, as in the case of education. Likewise, be in favor of democracy promotes the propensity to participate in the election as well as consider that elections occur cleanly and transparently. The article contributes to the debate by focusing on the Latin American elections, since such studies have been conducted only in stablished democracy. Its relevance is further enhanced due to the identification of some major differences in the results usually found in these contexts with long democratic tradition, as the negative effects of GDP and government effectiveness. Finally, the data indicate that the voter turnout in the LA is the voice of citizens with greater resources who value democracy and its institutions, but are dissatisfied with the economy and living in contexts of limited effectiveness in the performance of government.

vote turnout; structural constraints; individual determinants; multilevel analysis; Latin America


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