This study assessed the risk exposure of the production system of a typical farm in southern Brazil. Five possible production systems were analyzed, combining three crops (soybeans, corn seasons and wheat) in different crop-year combinations, for example: “Summer soybeans followed by corn” and “Autumn corn followed by winter wheat”. Five different production systems were created based on the intensity of land use for each of the crops. Primary data were collected from a typical farm in the producing region over eight seasons (2006/07 to 2013/14). The Monte Carlo simulation technique was used to evaluate negative Net Operating Revenue (NOR) risk. The results showed that the production system with soybean and first season corn had a higher NOR and lower risk when compared with the other four production systems, which intensified the land use in the second season. When the production system had a higher rate of corn and/or wheat, the NOR and the risk to the production system increased for the first or second crop. Both corn and wheat in the second crop increased the risk to the production system on the typical farm in Cascavel, in the state of Parana (PR).
Monte Carlo simulation; risk analysis; farm risk