System Dynamics for Sustainable Transportation Policies: A Systematic Literature Review

Fontoura, Wlisses Bonelá; Ribeiro, Glaydston Mattos

doi:10.1590/2175-3369.013.e20200259

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Scientific Article • urbe, Rev. Bras. Gest. Urbana 13 • 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/2175-3369.013.e20200259 linkcopy

System Dynamics for Sustainable Transportation Policies: A Systematic Literature Review

Dinâmica de Sistemas aplicada a políticas de transporte sustentável: uma revisão sistemática

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

Systems Dynamics (SD) is an efficient method that allows to analyze systems with dynamic complexity and policy resistance. The holistic approach of SD is suitable to analyze the current transportation problems. Among the applications of SD in the transportation sector, the use of this tool in the development and implementation of sustainable transport policies stands out. In this context, this paper aims to conduct a systematic literature review to assess the use of SD in the development and implementation of urban policies focused on sustainable transportation. The results show that most studies analyze policies focused on reducing the negative externalities of transportation, highlighting the efforts to reduce air pollutant emissions and traffic congestion. However, we did not find a study that analyzes non-motorized and motorized modes by economic, environmental, social, spatial and traffic variables. At the end of this study, the gaps found in the literature are pointed out, being available to further exploration in future studies.

Keywords:
Sustainable transportation; Urban mobility; Urban policies; System dynamics; Systematic literature review

Database	Identified	Duplicates	Selected	Included
Web of Science	100	1	15	15
Compendex	99	1	15	6
Scopus	144	0	18	2
DOAJ	1	0	0	0
EBSCO	3	0	3	0
Total	347	2	51	23

Authors	Title	Year	Total number of citations	Number of citations per year
Wang et al.	System Dynamics Model of Urban Transportation System and Its Application	2008	173	15.73
Armah et al.	A systems dynamics approach to explore traffic congestion and air pollution link in the city of Accra, Ghana	2010	100	11.11
Haghshenas et al.	Evaluation of sustainable policy in urban transportation using system dynamics and world cities data: A case study in Isfahan	2015	90	22.50
Cheng et al.	Urban transportation energy and carbon dioxide emission reduction strategies	2015	66	16.50
Ercan et al.	Investigating carbon footprint reduction potential of public transportation in United States: A system dynamics approach	2016	53	17.67

Journal	# Papers	JCR
Sustainability	3	4.624
Journal of Cleaner Production	2	6.395
Journal of Simulation	2	1.533

Authors	Policies	Mode of Transport*	Sub-models**	Simulation Time	Main Results
Wang et al. (2008)	Vehicle development	M	ECO, ENV, and TC	50 years	The authors suggest restrain the use and the ownership of private vehicles.
Armah et al. (2010)	Government policy and planning; Travel demand management; and Supply management	M	ECO, ENV, SOC, and TC	Not performed	Proposed measures: development of a public transport system, road network expanding and enhancing, and travel demand management alternatives.
Authors	Policies	Mode of Transport*	Sub-models**	Simulation Time	Main Results
Liu et al. (2010)	Clean transportation; Bus priority; Subway priority; and Car trip restriction	NM and M	ECO, ENV, and LU	15 years	Pollutants, energy consumption and land demand for roads will exceed the capacity of Beijing in 2020, if nothing changes. The four policies have positive results, but the integration of the four measures shows better results.
Bernardino and Van der Hoofd (2013)	Parking policy	M	ECO, LU, and TC	Unavailable data	The parking policy regulates the scarcity of parking and the traffic congestion. Thus, the system performs better, increasing the average speed in the network by up to 35%.
Bisen et al. (2014)	Provision of pedestrian lane; User defined vehicle occupancy; Impact of telecommunication application; and Change in land use characteristics	NM and M	ECO, ENV, LU, and TC	20 years	Reduction of pollutant emissions and traffic congestion and increase of the average speed in the network.
Guzman et al. (2014)	Road charge pricing policy	M	ECO, ENV, LU, and TC	30 years	Change in the modal split in radial trips. Speed increases and, consequently, the number of accidents also increases. Car travel has changed its destination pattern. Fuel consumption and pollutant emissions decreases.
Li et al. (2014)	Land use management	M	ECO, ENV, LU, and SOC	5 years	The model has a good accuracy and can be used as the macro-scale model for estimating the aggregated urban land use demand.
Cheng et al. (2015)	Fuel tax; Motorcycle parking management; and Free bus servisse	M	ECO, ENV, SOC, and TC	30 years	Fuel tax and motorcycle parking management policies are more efficient to restrict the growth of the number of cars, the fuel consumption, and CO₂ emissions. However, fuel tax policy seems to be the most effective cost.
Haghshenas et al. (2015)	Increase in private infrastructure; Control of urban sprawl; Replacement of vehicles; Car sharing and carpooling; Travel demand management; Providing more mixed land use; and a set of policies to improve public and non-motorized transport	NM and M	ECO, ENV, LU, and SOC	13 years	Policy makers should prioritize the development of policies related to public and non-motorized transport infrastructure. In addition, they must prioritize the integration of modes with effective prices and control the use of cars.
Wen et al. (2015)	Low-carbon policies	M	ECO and ENV	13 years	Increasing the utilization of Liquefied Natural Gas vehicle (LNG) considerably reduces pollutant emissions. Vehicle quantity control helps improve the sustainability of the transportation system.
Authors	Policies	Mode of Transport*	Sub-models**	Simulation Time	Main Results
Ercan et al. (2016)	Public transportation policies; Alternative fuel options (public and private transport)	M	ECO, ENV, and TC	60 years	The public policies must be supported by measures that are more aggressive. The prioritization of public transport and the improvements in the energy consumption of cars has the potential to reduce or even partially eliminate the current growth in CO₂ emissions.
Macmillan et al. (2016)	Pro-cycling policies	NM and M	SOC	20 years	The model helps identify effective policy levers to achieve sustained growth in cycling.
Alonso et al. (2017)	Cordon toll accompanied by public transport improvements; Teleworking; and Re-densification	M	ECO, ENV, LU, SOC, and TC	19 years	The three policies increase the efficiency of the system. However, teleworking is the most effective measure. Analyzing only energy consumption and pollution, re-densification showed better results.
Menezes et al. (2017)	Low-carbon policies	M	ENV	30 years	Policies that promote the use of biofuels have the greatest potential to reduce pollutant emissions. The prioritization of public transport also stands out in reducing emissions.
Procter et al. (2017)	Implementation of the Light Rail Transit (LRT)	M	ECO, ENV, LU, and TC	40 years	The implementation of the LRT will reduce emissions. Government targets on energy consumption will not be met without implementation.
Shen et al. (2018)	Strengthening urban road construction; Strengthening the public transport system; Limiting private cars	M	ECO and TC	10 years	The three policies are effective, but the authors emphasize the importance of implementing them simultaneously.
Batur et al. (2019)	Supply management measures; Travel demand management (TDM) policies	M	ECO, ENV, and LU	10 years	Travel demand management based scenarios outperform supply management measures based scenarios.
Fontoura et al. (2019a)	Brazilian Urban Mobility Policy (BUMP)	M	ECO, ENV, and TC	30 years	The BUMP implementation improves the share of public transit and reduces the pollutant emissions and traffic congestion. Besides that, the results show the importance of rideshare.
Fontoura et al. (2019b)	Brazilian Urban Mobility Policy (BUMP)	NM and M	ECO, ENV, and TC	32 years	The BUMP implementation reduces the negative externalities and, consequently, increases the efficiency of the urban transport system.
Papageorgiou and Demetriou (2019)	Public awareness of the sustainable habits	NM	SOC	10 years	Social learning and motivation to change behaviors are effective in promoting sustainable active mobility. The introduction of Information and Communication Technology accelerates the shaping and diffusion of a walking mindset.
Hu et al. (2020)	Urban passenger rail transit network (URFT) development	M	EC, ENV, and TC	28 years	URFT schemes with higher funding and capacity reduces traffic congestion, pollutant emissions and the number of accidents.
Authors	Policies	Mode of Transport*	Sub-models**	Simulation Time	Main Results
Keith et al. (2020)	Alternative fuel vehicles; Hybrid-electric vehicles; and Battery electric vehicles	M	ENV	30 years	In order to obtain a low carbon transportation sector, it is necessary to integrate long-term policies, considering the different vehicles fuels, as well as vehicle platforms and their interactions.
Luna et al. (2020)	E-carsharing growth policy; and Retirement policy for conventional vehicles	M	ECO and ENV	40 years	E-carsharing reduces emissions and increases awareness of electric vehicles. The combination of the two policies presents the best results for reducing emissions and increasing electric vehicle adoption.

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[TFN1] Source: Authors (2020).