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Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira

Print version ISSN 0100-204XOn-line version ISSN 1678-3921


SANTOS, Henrique Pereira dos; AMBROSI, Ivo  and  LHAMBY, Julio Cesar Barreneche. Risk analysis of four crop rotation systems for wheat, over a ten-year period, in Passo Fundo, RS. Pesq. agropec. bras. [online]. 1999, vol.34, n.4, pp.519-526. ISSN 1678-3921.

During ten years (1980 to 1989), at the Embrapa-Centro Nacional de Pesquisa de Trigo (CNPT), in Passo Fundo, RS, Brazil, the effects of crop rotation systems on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) were assessed. Four rotation systems for wheat were studied: system I (wheat/soybean); system II (wheat/soybean, rapeseed/soybean, barley/soybean, lupine or serradella/corn); system III (wheat/soybean, arrowleaf clover/arrowleaf clover, and arrowleaf clover/corn, from 1980 to 1983, and wheat/soybean, white oats/soybean, and common vetch/corn, from 1984 to 1989); and system IV (wheat/soybean, rapeseed/soybean, flax/soybean, and lupine or serradella/corn). A randomized complete block design, with four replications and plots with 120 m2, was used. Risk analysis over that period is presented in this paper. Two types of analysis were applied to the net return of the systems: mean-variance analysis and risk analysis (safety-first and stochastic dominance). By the mean-variance analysis, systems II and IV showed higher net returns as compared to systems I and III. The system II showed the highest profit and the lowest risk to be offered to the farmer, as compared to the remaining systems studied.

Keywords : Triticum aestivum; net return; mean-variance analysis; stochastic dominance.

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