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Revista Brasileira de Fruticultura

versão impressa ISSN 0100-2945versão On-line ISSN 1806-9967

Resumo

ANDRADE, Germán Lobos  e  PETRI, José Luiz. Volatility of international prices received by chilean fresh kiwi and apple farmers. Rev. Bras. Frutic. [online]. 2008, vol.30, n.1, pp.133-139. ISSN 1806-9967.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0100-29452008000100025.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the behavior of FOB average prices and the average prices received by fresh kiwi and apple producers, using monthly figures for the period spanning from January 1998 to December 2005. The values were expressed in December 2005 currency rates using the U.S.A. WPI (Wholesale Price Index) as a deflator. The series of average prices received by the producers were estimated indirectly by subtracting the commissions and export tariffs from the FOB average prices. As a measure of volatility, the standard deviation of the continuous returns (prices variation) of each series was used. The patterns of seasonally adjusted price fluctuations, received by Chilean fresh kiwi and apple farmers, were estimated through the geometric mobile average method. A greater volatility in the returns was observed in kiwi (47,5%) than in apples (17,3%). The results showed: a) lower price seasonality for kiwi than for apples; b) price stability in march and from July through November, for kiwi, and from February to June and from august through December, for apples; c) peak value in December and lowest in June, for kiwi; peak value in July and lowest in January, for apples.

Palavras-chave : Adjusted seasonally; mobile average; stability; risk.

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