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Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

versão impressa ISSN 0101-3157versão On-line ISSN 1809-4538


ARAUJO, RICARDO AZEVEDO. Assessing the dynamics of terms of trade in a model of cumulative causation and structural change. Rev. Econ. Polit. [online]. 2016, vol.36, n.1, pp.150-167. ISSN 1809-4538.

The motivation for this paper stems from the steady decline in the share of consumer expenditures on goods produced in the global south, coupled with the (empirically ambiguous) Singer/Prebisch hypothesis that this can be explained by a secular decline in the southern terms of trade. Drawing on these sources of inspiration, the paper sets out to study the dynamics of the terms of trade using a multi-sector growth model based on the principle of cumulative causation. The upshot is a North-South model of growth and trade in which the evolution of the terms of trade depends on differential rates of productivity growth in different sectors of the economy - and in which terms of trade dynamics may not be the best guide as to whether or not there is an uneven development problem.

Palavras-chave : structural economic dynamics; terms of trade.

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