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Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

versão impressa ISSN 0101-3157versão On-line ISSN 1809-4538

Resumo

VIEIRA, FLÁVIO VILELA  e  DAMASCENO, ADERBAL OLIVEIRA. Exchange rate misalignment, exchange rate volatility and economic growth: an analysis for the Brazilian economy. Rev. Econ. Polit. [online]. 2016, vol.36, n.4, pp.704-725. ISSN 1809-4538.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572016v36n04a03.

The goal of this work is to investigate the relevance of exchange rate misalignment and volatility for the Brazilian growth rate for the period of 1995 to 2011. The evidence suggest: i) the exchange rate misalignment is relevant to explain economic growth for the Brazilian economy and exchange rate under depreciation (over appreciation) foster (mitigates) economic growth; ii) exchange rate volatility is relevant to explain economic growth for the Brazilian economy and higher (lower) exchange rate volatility mitigates (foster) economic growth; iii) changes in the investment rate and the growth rate of exports have positive estimated coefficients for the growth model. As a recommendation policy, the suggestion is to keep the real exchange rate at a competitive level with low volatility.

Palavras-chave : Exchange Rate Misalignment; Exchange Rate Volatility; Economic Growth.

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