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Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

versão impressa ISSN 0101-3157versão On-line ISSN 1809-4538

Resumo

FONSECA, MATEUS RAMALHO RIBEIRO DA; ARAUJO, ELIANE CRISTINA DE  e  ARAUJO, ELISANGELA. Non-linearity between exchange and prices in Brazil and implications for an economic development strategy. Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. [online]. 2019, vol.39, n.2, pp.263-284.  Epub 02-Maio-2019. ISSN 1809-4538.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572019-2877.

The objective of this article is to perform an analysis of monetary policy in Brazil, using a Markov Chain Autoregressive Vector (MS-VAR) model, in the search for evidence of non-linearity in the relationship between exchange and prices in Brazil. The analysis showed that in periods of exchange appreciation, both on the demand side and the supply side, there is a set of forces that determine a downward trajectory for price levels, suggesting that the exchange rate plays a fundamental role in the control of inflation. However, there is a need to reassess the role of the exchange rate in Brazil.

Palavras-chave : Exchange rate; inflation; Brazilian economy; development economy.

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