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Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia

versão impressa ISSN 0102-7786


GARCIA SKABAR, Yanina; SALIO, Paola  e  NICOLINI, Matilde. BRAMS forecast verification over a region of subtropical Southamerica. Rev. bras. meteorol. [online]. 2012, vol.27, n.3, pp.291-306. ISSN 0102-7786.

The aim of this work is to verify the forecasts generated in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Ocean, University of Buenos Aires with the Brazilian model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS). Since year 2006, every day two different forecasts that extend for 72 hours have been performed using two nested grids with an horizontal resolution of 80 and 20 km. The higher resolution domain covers Paraguay, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Bolivia and the central and northern part of Argentina and Chile. This paper presents the results of the verification of the model in the higher resolution domain for the period April 2006 to December 2008. The focus is in the precipitation and vertical profiles of temperature and wind forecasts in the locations where soundings are available. Verification of precipitation forecast is based on statistics computed against observations and precipitation estimates from CMORPH. The results are close to those obtained in the region with models of similar resolution. It is also possible to identify the main forecast deficiencies, contributing to future adjustments in its configuration to improve the model performance.

Palavras-chave : weather forecast; numerical modeling; verification; BRAMS.

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