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vol.27 número4Previsão probabilistica sazonal da precipitação de dezembro-janeiro-fevereiro no norte do Uruguai e Rio Grande do Sul obtida com o modelo acoplado de previsão da NOAA e downscaling estatísticaVariabilidade dos índices de extremos climáticos em Rio Claro, São Paulo, Brasil índice de autoresíndice de assuntospesquisa de artigos
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Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia

versão impressa ISSN 0102-7786

Resumo

AVILA, Ana Maria Heuminski de  e  CARDOSO, Andrea de Oliveira. Application of statistical correction in extended weather forecasting in the southern region of Brazil. Rev. bras. meteorol. [online]. 2012, vol.27, n.4, pp.388-394. ISSN 0102-7786.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862012000400002.

Adverse weather conditions in critical periods of vegetative plant growth affect crop productivity, being a fundamental parameter for yield forecast. An increase in weather forecasting accuracy may be obtained by applying statistical correction to remove model bias. This study used statistical correction of ensemble forecasting with the atmospheric general circulation model (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/Center for Ocean - Land - Atmosphere Studies - CPTEC/COLA) by mean error removal for three cities in the South of Brazil. Comparisons were made between corrected and original precipitation forecasts, and between these and data observed at their respective meteorological stations. Results showed that the applied statistical correction method may improve forecasting performance in some situations and that the term of forecast present high accuracy, indicating the importance of ensemble forecasting as an auxiliary tool in agricultural crop monitoring.

Palavras-chave : agricultural monitoring; accuracy of meteorological models; weather forecast; plant growth.

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