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Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural

versão impressa ISSN 0103-2003versão On-line ISSN 1806-9479

Resumo

BARROS, Geraldo Sant'Ana de Camargo  e  SILVA, Simone Fioritti. A balança comercial do agronegócio brasileiro de 1989 a 2005. Rev. Econ. Sociol. Rural [online]. 2008, vol.46, n.4, pp.905-935. ISSN 1806-9479.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-20032008000400001.

This study aims to analyze the agribusiness contribution to Brazil's trade balance. A new classification of the agribusiness trade balance was proposed and used to analyze the aspects of the exported products - agricultural products, products of animal origin, industrialized foods and imported inputs - represented by fertilizers. Imports and exports vector autoregression models were used to explain the behavior of these variables. An increase of 1% in the attractiveness - product of the exchange rate by the international prices - boosts immediately the exports of non processed agricultural products by 1.71%, stabilizing at 2% after some trimesters. The attractiveness explains 60 to 74% of the forecast error variances of these exportats. It is noted that an exchange rate devaluation stimulates more the exports of products than it does the fertilizer imports. Besides, an increase of 1% of the GDP has an expressive impact (converging into -1.7%) on agricultural products exports.

Palavras-chave : Agribusiness trade balance; agricultural products; animal products; food industry; fertilizers; economic growth; attractiveness; exports; imports; productivity.

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