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Revista de Economia Contemporânea

Print version ISSN 1415-9848On-line version ISSN 1980-5527

Abstract

QUEIROZ, Indiane Souza de Azevedo  and  VIEIRA, Flavio Vilela. EXCHANGE RATE AND EXTERNAL ADJUSTMENT: AN INVESTIGATION WITH ARDL MODELS FOR THE BRICS EMERGING ECONOMIES. Rev. econ. contemp. [online]. 2019, vol.23, n.3, e192335.  Epub Nov 25, 2019. ISSN 1980-5527.  https://doi.org/10.1590/198055272335.

The objective of this work is to investigate the role of the exchange rate (level, misalignment and volatility) for the external adjustment of the BRICS (1998 to 2015) using ARDL models. The results indicate a strong asymmetry regarding the role of the exchange rate in the long and short-term adjustment process. For the models estimated with exchange rate misalignment, it was statistically significant for all economies except India, while for the models using exchange rate volatility, only for Brazil there was significance for the short-term adjustment in both models. Finally, the highest speed of adjustment were found in the NARDL model.

Keywords : exchange rate; external adjustment; BRICS; ARDL models; N-ARD.

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