SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.21 número2Gestão qualitativa dos recursos hídricos. Proposta metodológica para o planejamento de uma rede de estações para monitoramento da qualidade de águas superficiais. Estudo de caso: bacia hidrográfica do Rio Muriaé.Influência do Rio Taquaraçu na qualidade da água do Rio das Velhas: subsídios às reflexões sobre o quadro de escassez hídrica na região metropolitana de Belo Horizonte – MG, Brasil índice de autoresíndice de assuntospesquisa de artigos
Home Pagelista alfabética de periódicos  

Serviços Personalizados

Journal

Artigo

Indicadores

Links relacionados

Compartilhar


RBRH

versão On-line ISSN 2318-0331

Resumo

SILVEIRA, Cleiton da Silva et al. Climate change in the São Francisco river basin: analysis of precipitation and temperature. RBRH [online]. 2016, vol.21, n.2, pp.416-428. ISSN 2318-0331.  https://doi.org/10.21168/rbrh.v21n2.p416-428.

Precipitation and temperature projections from global models, made available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and actually used in the AR5 by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC-AR5), are assessed here for São Francisco River Basin. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are considered througout the period 2011 to 2100. Incidentally, global models are evaluated concerning their representativity related to 1961-2000 climatology from Brazilian National Meteorological Institute (INMET) data. Two indexes were evaluated: correlation and square mean error. The analisys of projections was performed through the assessment of yearly average values of 30 years period (2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100). Additionally to evaluate trends and variability it was considered 10 year moving averages, linear regression and Mann-Kendall-Sen method. Approximately 28% analyzed models do not capture the seasonal precipitation reliably. All models present positive trend for temperature, and despite of divergence on precipitation, the models projected anomalies between -20 and 20 for each time-slice for this variable.

Palavras-chave : São Francisco basin; Climate change; IPCC-AR5.

        · resumo em Português     · texto em Português     · Português ( pdf )