Urban Occupation and its Hydrologic Impacts in the Upper Mineirinho Watershed

This work aimed to establish and compare different scenarios of urban occupation and analyze their hydrologic effects. It evaluates downstream flood risks caused by upstream urban growth surrounding the implantation of the new Campus of the University of Sao Paulo - USP in the municipality of Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Four scenarios of urban occupation have been depicted: preurbanization (1972); scenario 2000; prospective scenario with Master Plan (until 2025, “CPD”); and expected situation without Master Plan (until 2025, “SPD”). The comparison of the different scenarios was outlined using the hydrologic model IPH II. Hydrologic modeling simulations showed that maximum stream flow discharges of scenario 2025 “SPD” would present an increase of 388.0% compared with the preurbanization scenario of 1972 and of 319.4% compared with the scenario 2000. Maximum stream discharges and peak timing of the scenario with Master Plan of 2025 (CPD) would present, respectively, a reduction of 22.3% and an increase of 50 minutes compared with the scenario without Master Plan of 2025 (SPD).

watershed; flood risk reduction; hydrologic simulation