Valor de tempo de viagem e idiossincrasia dos usuários do transporte regular e clandestino no Ceará: um estudo empírico via estimativa bayesiana

Silva, Francisco Gildemir Ferreira da

Resumos

Neste trabalho foi estudado o valor de tempo de viagem para transporte clandestino e regular. A base teórica é a do modelo de alocação de tempo de Becker (1965) se estendendo para a estrutura empírica proposta por Tuong e Hensher (1985a), tentando incorporar a idiossincrasias dos indivíduos no processo de estimação por uma abordagem empírica com fatores aleatórios tal como proposto por Train (1998) e Revelt e Train (1999). Os resultados indicam que a forma estrutural de Tuong e Hensher não é a mais adequada para o estudo, mas sim as propostas estruturadas de Becker (1965), DeSerpa (1971) ou a não estruturada tipo McFadden. Conclui-se, simulando uma redução em tempo de viagens do transporte regular de um minuto e utilizando o valor de tempo de viagem obtido no modelo a la McFadden que pode haver uma redução na demanda do clandestino e um retorno para a sociedade cearense da ordem de 167 mil reais.

valor de tempo de viagem; logit com parâmetros aleatórios; estimativa bayesiana; transporte de passageiros

We study in this paper the travel time value for clandestine and regular transport. The theoretical basis is the time allocation model from Becker (1965) extending to the empirical framework proposed by Tuong and Hensher (1985a), incorporating the individuals idiosyncrasies in the estimation by an empirical approach to random parameters such as proposed by Train (1998) and Revelt and Train (1999). In despite of the structured model like Becker (1965) and DeSerpa (1971) or unstructured model like McFadden has been a applicable result the structural functional form of Tuong and Hensher is not applicable for the study. Simulating a reduction in one minute the travel time of the regular transport and using the travel time value from McFadden model we conclude that there may be a reduction in clandestine demand transport and a monetary return to Ceará society on the order of a hundred thousand dollars.

value of travel time; random parameters logit; bayesian estimation; passengers transport

Allemby, G.M. e Rossi, P. (1999). Marketing Models for Consumer Heterogeneity. Journal of Econometrics 89, 57-78.
Anselin, L., Raymond, J.G.M, e Ray J., (2004), Advances in Spatial Econometrics: Methodology, Tools, and Applications, Springer.
Bates, J.T., (1987) Measuring Travel Time Values with a Discrete Choice Model: A note. The Economic Journal, Vol. 97 No. 386 (Jun. 1987), pp. 493-498.
Bhat, C. R. e Koppelman F., (1999) A retrospective and prospective survey of time-use research. Transportation 26: 119-139
Bhat. C. e Guo, J., (2002), A Mixed Spatially Correlated Logit Model: Formulation and Application to Residential Choice Modeling, Manuscript number 122-02.
Becker, G. S., (1965). A Theory of the Allocation of Time. The Economic Journal, Vol. 75, No. 299 (Sep., 1965), 493-517.
Beesley, M.E. (1965) The Value of Time Spent in Travelling: Some New Evidence. Economica, vol 32, n. 126, pp. 174-185
Ben-Akiva, M. E., (1973) Structure of Travel Demand Model, Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Civil Engineering, MIT.
Ben-Akiva, M. E e Bierlaire, M., (1999) Chapter 2: Discrete Choice Models with Applications to Departure Time and Route Choice. Handbook of Transporation Science. 2nd ed. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, Vol. 56. New York: Springer, 2003.ISBN 1-4020-7246-5
Ben-Akiva. M. e Morikawa, T. (1990) Estimation of Switching Models from Revealed Preferences and Stated Intentions. Transportation Research, 24A, 485-495.
Ben-Akiva, M, Bolduc, D. e Bradley, M (1993), Estimation of travel model choice models with randomly distributed values of time, Transportation Research Record 1413, 88-97.
Blayac, T e Causse, A. (2001) Value of travel time: a theoretical legitimization of some nonlinear representative utility in discrete choice models. Transportation Research Part B 35 (2001) 391±400
Bolduc, D., Fortin, B. e Fournier, M.A. (1996). The Impact of Incentive Policies to Influence Practice Location of General Practitioners: A Multinomial Probit Analysis. Journal of Labor Economics 14, 703-732.
Brownstone, D. e Train, K. (1999) Forecasting New Product Penetration with Flexible Substitution Patterns. Journal of Econometrics, 89, 109-129.
DeSerpa, A. C., (1971). A Theory of the economics of time, Economic Journal, December, 828-846.
Hammadou, H e Jayet, H, (2002), La Valeur du temps pour les déplacements à longue distance: une evaluation sur données françaises. Les cahiers Scientifiques du Transport. N° 42/2002-pages 3-23.
Huq, M. (2010) Theorical Analysis on Valuation of Time Saving. Mimeo.
Hensher, D. e Bradley, M. (1993) Using Stated Response Data to Enrich Revealed Preference Discrete Choice Models. Marketing Letters, 4, 39-152.
Hensher, D., J. Louviere, e J. Swait (1999) Combining Sources of Preference Data. Journal Of Econometrics, 87, 97-221.
Jara-Díaz, S.R. e Ortúzar, J.D., (1986) Introducing The Expenditure Rate In The Estimation of Mode Choice Models, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Volume_XX111_No_3_293-308.
Jara-Díaz, S.R. (2000) Allocation and Valuation of Travel-Time Savings. Handbook of Transport Modeling, Edited by D.A. Hensher and K.J. Button, Elsevier Science Ltda.
Jiang, M, Morikawa, T., (2004) Theorical Analysis on the variation of value of travel time savings. Transportation Research Part A 38 551-571.
Lancaster, K. J. (1966) A New Approach to Consumer Theory. Journal of Political Economy, 74, 132-157.
Lenk, P.J., Desarbo, W.S., Green, P.E. e Young, M.R. (1996). Hierarchical Bayes Conjoint Analysis: Recovery of Partworth Heterogeneity from Reduced Experimental Designs. Marketing Science 15, 173-191
LeSage (1999), The Theory and Practice of Spatial Econometrics, mimeo.
Luce, R.( 1959). Individual Choice Behavior. A Theoretical Analysis. Wiley, New York.
Klier, T. e McMillen, D. P., (2006) Clustering of Auto Supplier Plants in the U.S.: GMM Spatial Logit for Large Samples. Mimeo.
McFadden, D. L , (1974) The Measurement of Urban Travel Demand, Jornal of Public Economics.
McFadden, D. (1984). Econometric Analysis of Qualitative Response Models. En Z. Friliches y M.D. Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics II. Elsevier Science, Oxfor
McGillivray, R.G., (1970) Demand And Choice Models of Modal Split, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Volume_1V_No_2_192-207.
Morikawa, T. (1989) Incorporating Stated Preference Data in Travel Demand Analysis, Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Civil Engineering, MIT.
Morikawa, T., Ben-Akiva, M. e Yamada, K. (1991) "Forecasting Intercity Rail Ridership Using Revealed Preference and Stated Preference Data," Transportation Research Record, 1328, 30-35.
Pinkse J. e Slade, M.E., (1998), Contracting in Space: An application of spatial statistics to discrete-choice models, Journal of Econometrics, 85:125-154.
Plano Diretor e Operacional do Transporte Intermunicipal de Passageiros do Estado do Ceará (PDOTIP-CE). Contrato DERT-CE/ASTEF, 2006. Coordenador: Prof. Carlos Felipe Grangeiro Loureiro
Poduje, M. A. S., (2002) Estimacion de Valores de Disposicion a Pagar con Modelos logit Mixto. Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile Escuela de Ingenhieria
R Development Core Team (2009).R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://www.R-project.org.
Train, K. E. e McFadden, (1978), The Goods/Leisure Tradeoff and Disaggregate Work Trip Mode Choice Models. Transportation Research, Vol. 12, No. 5, 349-353.
Train, K.E., McFadden, D. e Ben-Akiva, M. (1987) Recreation The demand for local telephone service: A fully discrete model of residential calling patterns and service choice. Rand Journal of Economics 18, 109-123
Train, K.E., (1998) Recreation Demand Models with Taste Differences Over People. Land Economics, Vol. 74, No. 2.
Train, K. E., (2003), Discrete Choice Models with Simulation, Cambridge Press.
Tuong, P e Hensher D.A., (1985a) Measuerement of Travel Time Values and Opportunity Cost from a Discrete-Choice Model. The Economic Journal. Vol. 95, No. 378 (Jun., 1985), pp.438-451.
Tuong, P e Hensher D.A., (1985b) A Valuation of Travel Time Savings A Direct Experimental Approach. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. Vol. 19, pp.237-261.
Vichiensan, V. (2005) Mixed Logit Model With Structuralized Spatial Effects. Mimeo.

Datas de Publicação

Publicação nesta coleção
03 Out 2014
Data do Fascículo
Mar 2012

Histórico

Recebido
22 Ago 2011
Aceito
26 Jan 2012
Revisado
12 Dez 2011

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

[1] Allemby, G.M. e Rossi, P. (1999). Marketing Models for Consumer Heterogeneity. Journal of Econometrics 89, 57-78.

[2] Anselin, L., Raymond, J.G.M, e Ray J., (2004), Advances in Spatial Econometrics: Methodology, Tools, and Applications, Springer.

[3] Bates, J.T., (1987) Measuring Travel Time Values with a Discrete Choice Model: A note. The Economic Journal, Vol. 97 No. 386 (Jun. 1987), pp. 493-498.

[4] Bhat, C. R. e Koppelman F., (1999) A retrospective and prospective survey of time-use research. Transportation 26: 119-139

[5] Bhat. C. e Guo, J., (2002), A Mixed Spatially Correlated Logit Model: Formulation and Application to Residential Choice Modeling, Manuscript number 122-02.

[6] Becker, G. S., (1965). A Theory of the Allocation of Time. The Economic Journal, Vol. 75, No. 299 (Sep., 1965), 493-517.

[7] Beesley, M.E. (1965) The Value of Time Spent in Travelling: Some New Evidence. Economica, vol 32, n. 126, pp. 174-185

[8] Ben-Akiva, M. E., (1973) Structure of Travel Demand Model, Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Civil Engineering, MIT.

[9] Ben-Akiva, M. E e Bierlaire, M., (1999) Chapter 2: Discrete Choice Models with Applications to Departure Time and Route Choice. Handbook of Transporation Science. 2nd ed. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, Vol. 56. New York: Springer, 2003.ISBN 1-4020-7246-5

[10] Ben-Akiva. M. e Morikawa, T. (1990) Estimation of Switching Models from Revealed Preferences and Stated Intentions. Transportation Research, 24A, 485-495.

[11] Ben-Akiva, M, Bolduc, D. e Bradley, M (1993), Estimation of travel model choice models with randomly distributed values of time, Transportation Research Record 1413, 88-97.

[12] Blayac, T e Causse, A. (2001) Value of travel time: a theoretical legitimization of some nonlinear representative utility in discrete choice models. Transportation Research Part B 35 (2001) 391±400

[13] Bolduc, D., Fortin, B. e Fournier, M.A. (1996). The Impact of Incentive Policies to Influence Practice Location of General Practitioners: A Multinomial Probit Analysis. Journal of Labor Economics 14, 703-732.

[14] Brownstone, D. e Train, K. (1999) Forecasting New Product Penetration with Flexible Substitution Patterns. Journal of Econometrics, 89, 109-129.

[15] DeSerpa, A. C., (1971). A Theory of the economics of time, Economic Journal, December, 828-846.

[18] Hammadou, H e Jayet, H, (2002), La Valeur du temps pour les déplacements à longue distance: une evaluation sur données françaises. Les cahiers Scientifiques du Transport. N° 42/2002-pages 3-23.

[19] Huq, M. (2010) Theorical Analysis on Valuation of Time Saving. Mimeo.

[20] Hensher, D. e Bradley, M. (1993) Using Stated Response Data to Enrich Revealed Preference Discrete Choice Models. Marketing Letters, 4, 39-152.

[21] Hensher, D., J. Louviere, e J. Swait (1999) Combining Sources of Preference Data. Journal Of Econometrics, 87, 97-221.

[22] Jara-Díaz, S.R. e Ortúzar, J.D., (1986) Introducing The Expenditure Rate In The Estimation of Mode Choice Models, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Volume_XX111_No_3_293-308.

[23] Jara-Díaz, S.R. (2000) Allocation and Valuation of Travel-Time Savings. Handbook of Transport Modeling, Edited by D.A. Hensher and K.J. Button, Elsevier Science Ltda.

[24] Jiang, M, Morikawa, T., (2004) Theorical Analysis on the variation of value of travel time savings. Transportation Research Part A 38 551-571.

[25] Lancaster, K. J. (1966) A New Approach to Consumer Theory. Journal of Political Economy, 74, 132-157.

[26] Lenk, P.J., Desarbo, W.S., Green, P.E. e Young, M.R. (1996). Hierarchical Bayes Conjoint Analysis: Recovery of Partworth Heterogeneity from Reduced Experimental Designs. Marketing Science 15, 173-191

[27] LeSage (1999), The Theory and Practice of Spatial Econometrics, mimeo.

[28] Luce, R.( 1959). Individual Choice Behavior. A Theoretical Analysis. Wiley, New York.

[29] Klier, T. e McMillen, D. P., (2006) Clustering of Auto Supplier Plants in the U.S.: GMM Spatial Logit for Large Samples. Mimeo.

[30] McFadden, D. L , (1974) The Measurement of Urban Travel Demand, Jornal of Public Economics.

[31] McFadden, D. (1984). Econometric Analysis of Qualitative Response Models. En Z. Friliches y M.D. Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics II. Elsevier Science, Oxfor

[34] McGillivray, R.G., (1970) Demand And Choice Models of Modal Split, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Volume_1V_No_2_192-207.

[35] Morikawa, T. (1989) Incorporating Stated Preference Data in Travel Demand Analysis, Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Civil Engineering, MIT.

[36] Morikawa, T., Ben-Akiva, M. e Yamada, K. (1991) "Forecasting Intercity Rail Ridership Using Revealed Preference and Stated Preference Data," Transportation Research Record, 1328, 30-35.

[38] Pinkse J. e Slade, M.E., (1998), Contracting in Space: An application of spatial statistics to discrete-choice models, Journal of Econometrics, 85:125-154.

[39] Plano Diretor e Operacional do Transporte Intermunicipal de Passageiros do Estado do Ceará (PDOTIP-CE). Contrato DERT-CE/ASTEF, 2006. Coordenador: Prof. Carlos Felipe Grangeiro Loureiro

[40] Poduje, M. A. S., (2002) Estimacion de Valores de Disposicion a Pagar con Modelos logit Mixto. Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile Escuela de Ingenhieria

[41] R Development Core Team (2009).R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://www.R-project.org.

[42] Train, K. E. e McFadden, (1978), The Goods/Leisure Tradeoff and Disaggregate Work Trip Mode Choice Models. Transportation Research, Vol. 12, No. 5, 349-353.

[43] Train, K.E., McFadden, D. e Ben-Akiva, M. (1987) Recreation The demand for local telephone service: A fully discrete model of residential calling patterns and service choice. Rand Journal of Economics 18, 109-123

[44] Train, K.E., (1998) Recreation Demand Models with Taste Differences Over People. Land Economics, Vol. 74, No. 2.

[45] Train, K. E., (2003), Discrete Choice Models with Simulation, Cambridge Press.

[46] Tuong, P e Hensher D.A., (1985a) Measuerement of Travel Time Values and Opportunity Cost from a Discrete-Choice Model. The Economic Journal. Vol. 95, No. 378 (Jun., 1985), pp.438-451.

[47] Tuong, P e Hensher D.A., (1985b) A Valuation of Travel Time Savings A Direct Experimental Approach. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. Vol. 19, pp.237-261.

[48] Vichiensan, V. (2005) Mixed Logit Model With Structuralized Spatial Effects. Mimeo.

Brasil

Brasil

Valor de tempo de viagem e idiossincrasia dos usuários do transporte regular e clandestino no Ceará: um estudo empírico via estimativa bayesiana

Value of travel time and users idiosyncrasy of regular and irregular transport in Ceará: an empirical study by bayesian estimation

Resumos

Datas de Publicação

Histórico