Popularity and handpicking: conditioning factors of the reverse coattail effect

ABSTRACT

Introduction:

Recent studies show that mayors impact their parties’ vote share in federal deputy elections. But what shapes the ability of mayors to influence these results? And how does this impact differ when mayors support candidates from a different party? We argue that mayors’ popularity conditions their ability to impact deputy election results, which incentivizes incumbent deputies to pay special attention to mayors’.

Materials e Methods:

With survey data, we show that deputies recognize the importance of mayors in their work as representatives and voters are more likely to accept the advocacy of mayors for deputy candidates when the local administration is popular.

Results:

Using original data on nominations by mayors, we also show that candidates supported by mayors improve their electoral performance, especially when mayors have high levels of approval, which in turn leads to an increase vote share for their party. However, when the mayor supports a candidate from another party, mayoral approval is no longer associated with party’s performance in federal deputy elections.

Discussion:

The article allows us to problematize two points, the importance of deputies being supported by well-regarded mayors and the willingness of mayors to support candidates from other parties.

Keywords
reverse coattail; federal deputies; mayors; political brokers; survey