Acessibilidade / Reportar erro

Fraudes Contábeis: uma estimativa da probabilidade de detecção

Fraudes contables: una estimación de la probabilidad de detección

RESUMO

Fraudes nas demonstrações financeiras (FDF) custam caro para os investidores e podem prejudicar a credibilidade dos auditores. Para prevenir e detectar fraudes, é útil conhecer suas causas. Os modelos de escolha binária (por exemplo, logit e probit), frequentemente utilizados na literatura, porém, não levam em consideração os casos de fraudes não detectados e, portanto, apresentam testes de hipóteses pouco confiáveis. Usando uma amostra de 118 empresas acusadas de fraude pela Comissão de Valores Mobiliários dos Estados Unidos (Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC), estimamos um modelo logit que corrige os problemas oriundos de fraudes não detectadas em empresas dos Estados Unidos. Para evitar problemas de multicolinearidade, extraímos sete fatores a partir de 28 variáveis, usando o método dos componentes principais. Nossos resultados indicam que apenas 1,43% dos casos de FDF foram divulgados pela SEC. Das sete variáveis significativas incluídas em um modelo logit tradicional e não corrigido, três na realidade não foram consideradas significativas em um modelo corrigido. A probabilidade de FDF é 5,12 vezes maior quando o auditor da empresa emite um parecer adverso ou com ressalvas.

Palavras-chave:
Fraude contábil; AAER; Erros de classificação; Logit; Análise fatorial

RESUMEN

El fraude en los estados financieros (FEF) es costoso para los inversionistas y pueden minar la credibilidad de los auditores. A fin de prevenir y detectar el fraude, es útil conocer sus causas. Sin embargo, los modelos de elección binaria (logit y probit, por ejemplo) a menudo utilizados en la literatura, no tienen en cuenta los casos de fraudes detectados y consecuentemente presentan pruebas de hipótesis poco fiables. Utilizando una muestra de 118 compañías acusadas de fraude por la Comisión de Bolsa y Valores de EE.UU. (Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC), hemos estimado un modelo logit que corrige los problemas derivados de los fraudes no detectados en las compañías estadounidenses. Para evitar problemas de multicolinealidad, hemos extraído siete factores de 28 variables, utilizando el método de componentes principales. Nuestros resultados indican que sólo el 1,43% de los casos de FEF se han dado a conocer por la SEC. De las siete variables significativas incluidas en un modelo logit tradicional y no corregido, tres en efecto no fueron consideradas significativas en un modelo corregido. La probabilidad de FEF es 5,12 veces mayor cuando el auditor de la compañía emite una opinión adversa o con reservas.

Palabras clave:
Fraude contable; AAER; Errores de clasificación; Logit; Análisis factorial

ABSTRACT

Financial statement fraud (FSF) is costly for investors and can damage the credibility of the audit profession. To prevent and detect fraud, it is helpful to know its causes. The binary choice models (e.g. logit and probit) commonly used in the extant literature, however, fail to account for undetected cases of fraud and thus present unreliable hypotheses tests. Using a sample of 118 companies accused of fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), we estimated a logit model that corrects the problems arising from undetected frauds in U.S. companies. To avoid multicollinearity problems, we extracted seven factors from 28 variables using the principal factors method. Our results indicate that only 1.43 percent of the instances of FSF were publicized by the SEC. Of the six significant variables included in the traditional, uncorrected logit model, three were found to be actually non-significant in the corrected model. The likelihood of FSF is 5.12 times higher when the firm’s auditor issues an adverse or qualified report.

Keywords:
Accounting fraud; AAER; Misclassification; Logit; Factor analysis

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    Processo de avaliação: Double Blind Review

Datas de Publicação

  • Publicação nesta coleção
    Jul-Sep 2014

Histórico

  • Recebido
    20 Fev 2013
  • Aceito
    01 Out 2014
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