The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of elevated temperature scenarios on leaf development of potato in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Leaf appearance was estimated using a multiplicative model that has a non-linear temperature response function which calculates the daily leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day-1) and the accumulated number of leaves (LN) from crop emergence to the appearance of the upper last leaf. Leaf appearance was estimated during 100 years in the following scenarios: current climate, +1 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C, +4 °C e +5 °C. The LAR model was estimated with coefficients of the Asterix cultivar in five emergence dates and in two growing seasons (Fall and Spring). Variable of interest was the duration (days) of the crop emergence to the appearance of the final leaf number (EM-FLN) phase. Statistical analysis was performed assuming a three-factorial experiment, with main effects being climate scenarios, growing seasons, and emergence dates in a completely randomized design using years (one hundred) as replications. The results showed that warmer scenarios lead to an increase, in the fall, and a decrease, in the spring growing season, in the duration of the leaf appearance phase, indicating high vulnerability and complexity of the response of potato crop grown in a Subtropical environment to climate change.
Solanum tuberosum; global warming; leaf appearance; agricultural crops; food security
