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Scientia Agricola

On-line version ISSN 1678-992X


SANCHEZ-ROMAN, Rodrigo Máximo; FOLEGATTI, Marcos Vinicius; ORELLANA GONZALEZ, Alba María Guadalupe  and  SILVA, Rogério Teixeira da. Dynamic systems approach assess and manage water resources in river basins. Sci. agric. (Piracicaba, Braz.) [online]. 2009, vol.66, n.4, pp.427-435. ISSN 1678-992X.

The Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí River Basins (RB-PCJ) are located in the States of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, Brazil. By 2005, 5.8% of Brazil's General National Product-GNP was produced there. Such economic development has created a huge demand for water resources. The availability of water resources was assessed by running a dynamic systems simulation model to manage these resources in the RB-PCJ (WRM-PCJ), considering five 50-year simulations. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model computes water supply, demands, and contamination load from several consumers. When considering a Business-as-Usual scenario, by 2054, water demands will have increased up to 76%, 39% of the available water will come from wastewater reuse, and the contamination load will have increased by 91%. The Falkenmark Index started at 1403 m3 person-1 year-1 in 2004, ending at 734 m3 P-1 yr-1 in 2054; the Xu Sustainability Index started at 0.44 and ended at 0.20; and Keller's River Basin Development Phases started as Phase II, and ended at final Phase III, of Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that RB-PCJ is at a crucial management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and proved to be an excellent tool to assess water resources availability.

Keywords : water stress; water management; watershed; modeling.

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