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Gestão & Produção

Print version ISSN 0104-530XOn-line version ISSN 1806-9649

Abstract

ZAWADZKI, Marcelo; COSTA, André Negrão; BELDERRAIN, Mischel Carmen Neyra  and  MONTIBELLER, Gilberto. Adversarial Risk Analysis in support of defensive resource allocation for counterterrorism. Gest. Prod. [online]. 2017, vol.24, n.3, pp.450-463.  Epub June 22, 2017. ISSN 0104-530X.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0104-530x1814-16.

Terrorism risk assessment is one of the biggest challenges that authorities must face to define the defensive resource allocation policy for a country. This article provides a brief review of two approaches that have been traditionally used for this purpose: Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Game Theory. Additionally, it introduces the Adversary Risk Analysis approach to the Brazilian context; an innovative methodology that aims to assess risks caused by intelligent opponents. Finally, an application of Adversarial Risk Analysis in a hypothetical situation is presented. The results show that Adversarial Risk Analysis can be useful to support decisions about defensive resource allocation in contexts such as sports mega events, a reality for many countries around the world.

Keywords : Adversarial Risk Analysis; Resource allocation, Terrorism risk; Terrorism in sports events; World Soccer Cup; Olympic Games.

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