The article aims to analyze several alternative paths the deficit’s flow in the Brazilian public sector pension system (Regime Jurídico Único-RJU) can take under the implemented as well as proposed reforms by the Congress. To this end, actuarial methods are employed under different alternative hypothesis. The simulation show that, even under the best considered scenario, in which the country’s GDP growths at an annual rate of 3%, the RJU’s deficit will continue to increase up to 2016. In other words, only from this date on, the deficit begins to shrink, which could be cancelled off in 2090 when the regime will be closed, according to the recently proposed legal framework.
public sector pension system; social security deficit; deficit projections