DROUGHT SEVERITY INDICES IN THE SEMIARID, PARAÍBA

Nascimento, Maxsuel Bezerra do; Medeiros, Marysol Dantas de

doi:10.4215/rm2022.e21024

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Article • Mercator (Fortaleza) 21 • 2022 • https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2022.e21024 copy

DROUGHT SEVERITY INDICES IN THE SEMIARID, PARAÍBA

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

The occurrence of annual and multiannual droughts in the Brazilian semiarid is a recurrent phenomenon that triggers a series of consequences, impacting the environment and the quality of life of the population inhabiting this region. Due to its location in the drought polygon, the Immediate Geographical Region of Monteiro - PB (REGIM does not diverge from this reality. Given the above, this research aims to correlate the DM, PNI, and RAI Severity Indices of Drought Events in the REGIM, through the historical rainfall series data, to classify the quantitative data on a monthly and annual scale and identify these cycles' Severity of Events (SDE) and consequently evaluate the variation of precipitation over time, identifying the dry and rainy periods. The research sourced monthly rainfall data from the Northeast Development Superintendence (SUDENE), National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), and Executive Agency of Water Management of Paraíba (AESA) to compose the spatial and temporal precipitation variability, which was calculated through the Normal Percentage Index - NPI (CUNHA, 2008CUNHA, R. L. A. Definição de cenários de referência para avaliação dos impactos das secas. 147f. Dissertação (Mestrado Integrado em Engenharia Civil) - Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Porto, 2008.), Decision Method - DM (GIBBS; MAHER, 1967GIBBS, W. J.; MAHER, J. V. Rainfall deciles as drought indicators. Melbourne: Commonwealth of Australia, 1967. 84 p. (Bureau of Meteorology. Bulletin, 48).) and Rainfall Anomaly Index - RAI (ROOY, 1965ROOY, M. P. van. A Rainfall anomaly index independente of time and space. Notos. v. 14, p. 43-48, 1965.).

Keywords:
Rainfall Standardization Indices; Ipp; Severity of Events; SDE; Water Resources.

	RAI RANGE	CLASSES OF SEVERITY OF EVENTS
	From 4 above	Extremely wet
Table of contents	2 to 4	Very wet.
ANOMALY TYPE	0 to 2	Wet
Rain	0 to 2	Dry
IAC	2 to 4	Very dry.
	From -4 below	Extremely dry

2010; Araújo et al. (2009)		Proposed
DM	Severity of events	RAI	Severity of events
From 4 above	Extremely Wet	4,1 ≥	Extremely wet
2 to 4	Very wet.	2,1 ≤ 4	Very wet.
0 to 2	Wet	0,1 ≤ 2	Wet
0 to 2	Dry	-0,1 ≤ -2	Dry
2 to 4	Very dry.	-2,1 ≤ -4	Very dry.
From -4 below	Extremely dry	≤ -4,1	Extremely dry

	RAI RANGE	CLASSES OF SEVERITY OF EVENTS
	From 4 above	Extremely wet
Table of contents	2 to 4	Very wet.
ANOMALY TYPE	0 to 2	Wet
Rain	0 to 2	Dry
IAC	2 to 4	Very dry.
	From -4 below	Extremely dry

Cunha (2008)CUNHA, R. L. A. Definição de cenários de referência para avaliação dos impactos das secas. 147f. Dissertação (Mestrado Integrado em Engenharia Civil) - Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Porto, 2008.		Proposed
PNI	Severity of events	PNI	Severity of events
PNI ≥ 0.85	Normal	PNI ≥ 1.51	Extremely wet
0.75 ≤ PNI < 0.85	S1 Moderate drought	1.26 ≤ PNI < 1.50	Very wet.
0,50 ≤ PNI < 0,75	Severe drought	1.01 ≤ PNI <1.25	Wet
PNI < 0.50	S3 Extreme Drought	0.76 ≤ PNI < 1.00	Dry
-	-	0,51 ≤ PNI < 0,75	Very dry.
-	-	PNI < 0.50	Extremely dry

STANDARDIZATION	THE PROPOSED SEVERITY OF EVENTS
STANDARDIZATION	DM		RAI	PNI
Extremely wet		10	4,1 ≥	PNI ≥ 1.51
Very wet.		9-8	2,1 ≤ 4	1.26 ≤ PNI < 1.50
Wet		7-6	0,1 ≤ 2	1.01 ≤ PNI <1.25
Dry		5 4	-0,1 ≤ -2	0.76 ≤ PNI < 1.00
Very dry.		3-2	-2,1 ≤ -4	0,51 ≤ PNI < 0,75
Extremely dry		1	≤ -4,1	PNI < 0.50

Standardization Index of Rainfall Measurement	Rainfall Scale	PNI	DM	IAC
Extreme Drought	-10	ED	ED	ED
Extreme Drought	-9	ED	ED	VD
Severe Drought	-8	ED	VD	VD
	-7	VD	VD	VD
	-6	VD	VD	D
	-5	ES	VD	D
Normal Drought	-4	VD	D	D
	-3	D	D	D
	-2	D	D	W
	-1	VD	D	W
Normal Rainfall	1	D	W	W
	2	W	W	W
	3	W	W	VW
	4	D	W	VW
Severe Rainfall	5	W	VW	VW
	6	VW	VW	VW
	7	VW	VW	EW
	8	W	VW	EW
Extreme Rainfall	9	VW	EW	EW
Extreme Rainfall	10	EW	EW	EW

Months	Severity of events
Months	IAC		DM		PNI
January	1.3	W	7	VW	1.42	W
February	2.2	MU	8	EW	1.72	VW
March	4.9	EW	10	EW	2.61	EW
April	3.2	VW	9	EW	2.08	VW
May	1.7	W	8	EW	1.57	VW
June	-1.0	D	6	VD	0.74	W
July	-1.7	D	4	VD	0.54	D
August	-2.9	VD	2	ED	0.19	VD
September	-3.4	VD	1	ED	0.07	ED
October	-2.9	VD	3	ED	0.21	VD
November	-2.8	VD	3	ED	0.23	VD
December	-1.4	D	5	VD	0.61	D

Year	Severity of events
Year	IAC		DM		PNI
1990	1.4	W	1.18	W	8	VW
1991	1.1	W	1.14	W	7	W
1992	2.9	VW	1.36	VW	9	VW
1993	-0.4	D	0,97	D	5	D
1994	0.3	W	1.03	W	6	W
1995	1.1	W	1.14	W	7	W
1996	-0.6	D	0,93	D	5	D
1997	-0.8	D	0.90	D	4	D
1998	-5.4	ED	0.32	ED	1	ED
1999	-3.5	VD	0.56	VD	1	ED
2000	1.4	W	1.17	W	8	VW
2001	-1.8	D	0.77	D	3	VD
2002	0.4	W	1.05	W	6	W
2003	-2.4	VD	0.71	VD	2	VD
2004	2.9	VW	1.37	VU	9	VU
2005	0.4	U	1.05	U	6	U
2006	1.2	U	1.14	U	7	U
2007	-0.4	D	0.95	D	5	D
2008	3.1	VU	1.39	VU	9	VU
2009	6.8	VE	1.85	VE	10	VE
2010	3.1	VU	1.39	VU	10	VE
2011	2.5	VU	1.32	VU	8	VU
2012	-5.7	ED	0.29	ED	1	ED
2013	-1.8	D	0.77	D	3	VD
2014	-1.2	D	0.85	D	4	D
2015	-3.3	VD	0.59	VD	2	VD
2016	-2.9	VD	0.64	VD	2	VD
2017	-2.0	D	0.75	VD	3	VD
2018	-0.6	D	0,93	D	5	D
2019	-0.7	D	0.91	D	4	D
2020	4.7	VW	1.59	VW	10	VW

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[1] (*)CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Address: UFRN. Lagoa Nova S/N, CEP 59078-970 , Natal (RN), Brasil. Tel (+55 84) 3342-2330 E-mail:maxsuel10gba@hotmail.com