Direct and indirect effects of Bolsa-Família Program in Brazilian presidential elections

Abstract

What are the mechanisms that link conditional cash transfers and presidential elections? Current explanation focuses, in general, in the “direct effect”, meaning the impact of social policies only in its beneficiaries. Analyzing the case of Bolsa Família, I argue that the “indirect effect” in the electoral decision of the no-beneficiaries who know beneficiaries can be as or more important to general electoral results. I present plausible mechanisms and I propose an empirical model applied to 2006 e 2010 surveys. Against regular approaches regarding the regional impact of the social policy, the results show that the indirect effect is positive important especially in the PT’s vote in Southeast. Therefore, I emphasize the fact that social contacts are important mechanisms to shape the electoral impact of public policy.

Bolsa Família Program; presidencial elections; clientelism; electoral behavior; conditional cash transfer