Abstract
The article seeks to further an understanding of the impact of robust federalism and strong Executives on federal deputies' political survival. Specifically, the article looks at the effect of government coalitions formed at the national and state levels on incumbent deputies' career choices. It tests two hypotheses: members of the governing coalition at the national level have the highest likelihood of running for reelection, whereas deputies opposing both the federal and state governments are those less likely to seek an additional term in the lower chamber; on the other hand, opposition deputies at both levels of government display the highest predisposition to compete for higher elective posts (governor and senator).Our analyses relies on a database of post- election career choices of representatives from the states of Bahia, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, Rio Grande do Norte and São Paulo elected to legislatures 1999-2003 and 2003-2007. The empirical analysis demonstrates that members of the governing coalition at the federal level have a higher probability of seeking re-election, and a lower probability of competing for higher elected position as compared to members of the opposition at the state and federal levels. Furthermore, these differences widen for higher levels of legislative experience. We conclude that the benefits of staying in the Chamber of Deputies are lower for opposition deputies, which may lead to more discontinuous career patterns. However, because they face a completely different set of incentives, deputies with privileged access to government resources have as a dominant strategy pursuing re-election.
federalism; executive power; career patterns; federal deputies; political careers
Fonte: Tabela 4.