Predictors of Students’ Mathematics Achievement in Secondary Education^*

Abstract

Acknowledging the relevance of mathematics education, as well the evidence about predictors related to achievement in this domain, the present study performed a predictive analysis of students’ mathematics achievement in the National Exam for Secondary Education, employing the Regression Tree Method and a model with 53 predictors. Results indicated that the model explained 29.97% of the mathematics achievement variance. Certain variables are related to worse achievement in mathematics: Students’ family monthly income equal or smaller than 2 minimum wages, be female, have not attended Primary and Secondary Education in private schools, live in North, North East and Center West regions of Brazil, be highly motivated to perform the exam to obtain Secondary Education certificate or scholarship. The results obtained highlight the role of variables related to the individual, school and family as predictors of mathematics achievement.

Keywords:
mathematics; secondary education; prediction; regression tree; National Exam for Secondary Education