Church attendance as a mechanism of electoral mobilization: the evangelical vote for Bolsonaro in 2018

Abstract:

In the debate about the influence of religion on voting, the behavioral dimension is often analyzed, especially church attendance. In this debate, churchgoers are considered to be more exposed to the political messages of their religious leaders. Following this perspective, we tested the hypothesis that church attendance was a mechanism through which the evangelical religion influenced the vote for Bolsonaro in 2018. The results show that approximately 16% of the effect of being evangelical on the vote for Bolsonaro is explained by this mechanism. To achieve this result, we use the mediation model for qualitative observational data. The database used is the Latin America Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) 2019.

Keyword:
Religion; Church attendance; Mediation analysis; Opinion leader