The infant mortality rates have presented a decreasing trend in the last decades especially due to the post-neonatal component. The objective of this paper was to analyze the trend of infant mortality rate and its components in the city of Guarulhos from 1971 to 1998. Data on infant mortality rates, early neonatal, late neonatal and post-neonatal mortality rates are from Fundação SEADE and trends were analyzed in three different periods: from 1971 to 1980, from 1981 to 1990 and from 1991 to 1998. Polynomial regression models were used in order to analyze trends. All infant mortality rates had statistically significant decreasing trends only in the first period (1971-80). In the second period (1981 to 1990) the infant mortality rate (p= 0.0058), the late neonatal mortality (p= 0.0105) and post-neonatal mortality (p= 0.0045) presented statistically significant decreasing trends. In the period from 1991 to 1998, the infant mortality rate (p< 0.0001), neonatal mortality (p= 0.0173) and post-neonatal mortality rate (p= 0.0044) had decreasing trends. We concluded that it is necessary to improve mother-child care especially in the neonatal period in order to reduce infant mortality rates in Guarulhos.
Infant mortality; trends; Time series
