Análise de séries temporais das tentativas de suicídio atendidas por bombeiros de 2017 a 2021 em São Paulo, Brasil

Wagner, Gabriela Arantes; Almeida, Tiago Regis Franco de; Araújo, Adriana Leandro de; Munhoz, Diógenes Martins; Andrade, Pedro Gomes

Gabriela Arantes Wagner CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Gabriela Arantes Wagner. Rua Botucatu 740, 4o andar, Vila Mariana, CEP: 04023-062, São Paulo (SP), Brazil. E-mail: gabriela.wagner@unifesp.br

Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Paulista School of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine – São Paulo (SP), Brazil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6070-7233

Tiago Regis Franco de Almeida

Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Paulista School of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine – São Paulo (SP), Brazil.

Polícia Militar do Estado de São Paulo, Higher School of Fire Department – São Paulo (SP), Brazil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5267-2827

Adriana Leandro de Araújo

Polícia Militar do Estado de São Paulo, Geostatistics section of the Operational Department of the Fire Department – São Paulo (SP), Brazil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8468-6852

Diógenes Martins Munhoz

Polícia Militar do Estado de São Paulo, Higher School of Fire Department – São Paulo (SP), Brazil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8890-8106

Pedro Gomes Andrade

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Diretoria de Estudos e Políticas do Estado, das Instituições e da Democracia – São Paulo (SP), Brazil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3964-6787

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Gabriela Arantes Wagner. Rua Botucatu 740, 4^o andar, Vila Mariana, CEP: 04023-062, São Paulo (SP), Brazil. E-mail: gabriela.wagner@unifesp.br

CONFLICT OF INTERESTS: nothing to declare

AUTHORS’ CONTRIBUTIONS: GAW: conceptualization, funding acquisition, investigation, methodology, project administration, supervision, visualization, writing – original draft, writing – review & editing. TRFA: conceptualization, investigation, data curation, validation, visualization, writing – original draft, writing – review & editing. ALA: data curation, validation, visualization, writing – original draft, writing – review & editing. DMM: data curation, validation, visualization, writing – original draft, writing – review & editing. PGA: conceptualization, formal analysis, methodology, visualization, writing – original draft, writing – review & editing.

		Prepandemic period % (n)	Pandemic prevaccination period % (n)	Postvaccination period % (n)
Total		55.3 (6,322)	20.1 (2,296)	24.6 (2,817)	p-value^* * Pearson's chi-square (χ2);
Sex^* * Pearson's chi-square (χ2);
	Male	63.7 (2,478)	60.2 (1,380)	60.2 (1,693)	0.003
	Female	36.3 (1,414)	39.8 (913)	39.8 (1,120)	0.003
Age group (years)
	≤7	0.3 (14)	0.1 (1)	0.2 (6)	0.134
	8–14	1.8 (86)	1.8 (42)	1.7 (48)
	15–29	38.3 (1,803)	41.1 (941)	40.3 (1,134)
	30–59	54.4 (2,257)	51.4 (1,177)	52.1 (1,467)
	≥60	5.2 (244)	5.6 (127)	5.7 (160)
Suicide attempt cal^l^† † There are 22 missing – indeterminate sex.
	Death	16.2 (990)	14.5 (327)	13.5 (377)	0.003
	Rescue	83.8 (5,134)	85.5 (1,934)	86.5 (2,409)	0.003
Attempt details
	Hanging	14.8 (934)	14.0 (321)	14.8 (415)	0.088
	Jumping	1.7 (108)	1.3 (30)	1.1 (32)
	Poisoning	6.4 (407)	5.4 (123)	5.9 (167)
	White gun	21.2 (1,336)	20.9 (480)	19.6 (552)
	Firearm	13.5 (854)	14.2 (327)	15.1 (425)
	Jumping in front of a car	42.4 (2,679)	44.2 (1,015)	43.5 (1,226)

Model	Variable	Total			Men			Women
		ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,0) [12]			ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,0) [12]			ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,0) [12]
		Estimate	Standard error	p-value	Estimate	Standard error	p-value	Estimate	Standard error	p-value
Model A	MA1	-0.746	0.201	<0.001	-0.554	0.115	<0.001	-0.719	0.096	<0.001
	SAR1	0.452	0.126	<0.001	0.482	0.122	<0.001	0.319	0.147	<0.001
	Constant	0.406	0.186	0.033
	AIC	394.79			532.76			203.82
Model B	MA1	-0.694	0.093	<0.001	-0.640	0.102	<0.001	-0.734	0.086	<0.001
	SAR1	0.551	0.127	<0.001	0.529	0.123	<0.001	0.358	0.153	<0.001
	Dummy pandemic	-8.680	3.870	<0.001	-32.1	13.2	0.018	-0.900	0.819	<0.001
	AIC	393.26			529.84			204.68
Model C	MA1	-0.706	0.140	<0.001	-0.648	0.156	<0.001	-0.750	-0.750	<0.001
	SAR1	0.538	0.129	<0.001	0.533	0.125	<0.001	0.343	0.151	<0.001
	Dummy vaccination	6.300	5.430	0.251	21.7	19.0	0.258	0.597	0.919	<0.001
	AIC	396.26			533.63			205.44
Likelihood ratio test (A vs. B)		χ²		p-value	χ²		p-value	χ²		p-value
Pandemic intervention (A vs. B)		1.524		<0.001	4.922		0.026	1.144		0.284
Vaccination intervention (A vs. C)		1.473		<0.001	1.125		0.288	0.382		0.536

[1] CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Gabriela Arantes Wagner. Rua Botucatu 740, 4^o andar, Vila Mariana, CEP: 04023-062, São Paulo (SP), Brazil. E-mail: gabriela.wagner@unifesp.br

Brasil

Brasil

Análise de séries temporais das tentativas de suicídio atendidas por bombeiros de 2017 a 2021 em São Paulo, Brasil

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