Abstract
In critical situations due to low levels in the hydroelectric reservoirs, the control of the Brazilian electric sector is made based on hydrothermal planning which depends on the future affluent flows to the Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPPs). The hydrologic uncertainties are considered by means of synthetic scenarios of sequences of affluent natural energies to the sub-regions. Two computational models are used to optimize the system: the NEWAVE (medium and long-range) and the DECOMP (short-range). The NEWAVE is a model of energetic planning applied to the National Interconnected System (NIS) which uses the Dual Dynamic Stochastic Programming (UDSP) to determine the operational policy that minimizes the marginal cost of operation of the energy sector in a horizon of up to 5 years. The objective in developing this work is to evaluate the performance of the NEWAVE model through the NWLISTOP functionality in the projection of the affluent natural energy (ANE) and the stored energy (STE) in the Northeast Subsystem for the years from 2012 to 2016. It was verified that the model tends to overestimate the ANE and STE values. The results indicate the need to use techniques that allow to optimize the long-range operational planning, mainly in situations of extreme drought episodes.
Keywords:
Sobradinho Hydroelectric Power Plant; Affluent Energy; Stored Energy; NEWAVE model
