Análise de Frequência Regional para a Previsão de Vazões Máximas em Bacias não Calibradas da Amazônia Peruana

rbmet Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia Rev. bras. meteorol. 0102-7786 1982-4351 Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia Abstract The estimation of the maximum design flow is important for flood management. However, the limited existence of gauged sites and the scarcity of hydrological measurements make it impossible to estimate them in ungauged basins. In this study, the regional frequency analysis (RFA) was carried out for the prediction of maximum flows in ungauged basins of the Peruvian Amazon. The methodology consisted of the identification of homogeneous regions, selection of the regional distribution function, estimation of regional quantiles, regionalization of the index-flood, and the prediction of maximum flows in ungauged basins. The results have identified a well-defined homogeneous region called region 1. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution proved to be more adequate to represent the data sample of region 1, and the basin area explained the variability of the index-flood in 99.4% (R2 = 0.994). The prediction of maximum flows in ungauged basins presented wide ranges of uncertainty, mainly for high return periods. It is concluded that the RFA provides reliable estimates for the prediction of maximum flows as long as the uncertainty ranges are considered at each frequency. 1. Introduction Design maximum flows are of importance for flood management, disaster risk management, hydraulic planning, and design of hydraulic structures, however, they must be predicted from a theoretical distribution function that best fits sample data from a site of interest. An adequate technique to make predictions of maximum design flows when information is available is the local frequency analysis (LFA) (OMM, 2011). Although the methodology of the LFA is well established (Viglione, 2007; Hosking and Wallis 1997) and allows to make reliable predictions associated with high return periods (Campos-Aranda, 2016), the information that is required is not always available in time and space, so it is necessary to use other methodologies. In the Amazon basin of Peru, the limited existence of hydrometric stations and the short length of measurements make it impossible to estimate the maximum design flow in ungauged basins. Consequently, the lack of information on maximum design flows has led to inadequate flood management in the study area, generating a lot of damage. Given this problem, the regional frequency analysis (RFA) is an appropriate method that uses records from several sites to characterize the study variable in non-instrumented sites, thus allowing flow rates to be obtained through unsupervised data such as the morphometric parameters of the basins, with more precise inferences when they are in the same homogeneous region (Hosking and Wallis, 1997). The ARF has been successfully applied in flood modeling, for example in Canada (Msilini et al., 2020; Desai and Ouarda, 2021), Switzerland (Le et al., 2022), Australia (Zaman et al., 2012), Turquía (Saf, 2009), Pakistán (Khan et al., 2017), Brazil (Rezende de Souza et al., 2021), South-eastern Europe (Lescesen et al., 2022), likewise, it has been applied for the evaluation of hydrological drought in the Czech Republic (Strnad et al., 2020) and analysis of meteorological drought in Indonesia (Kuswanto et al., 2021). A detailed comparison of various RFA methodologies can be found in Cunnane (1988) and GREHYS (1996). The RFA includes the use of L-moments (Hosking and Wallis, 1997) together with the index-flood method (Dalrymple, 1960), a useful alternative for the transfer of information to sites that make up a supposed homogeneous region (Rodriguez and Marreno de León, 2011). The stages of the RFA are based on the identification of homogeneous regions, selection of the regional frequency distribution, estimation of regional quantiles, and regionalization of the index-flood (Hosking and Wallis, 1997; Viglione, 2007). An exhaustive RFA requires the identification of homogeneous regions (IHR) (Hosking and Wallis, 1997; Rodriguez and Marreno de León, 2011) and for this, Ward's cluster analysis and principal components can be applied (Gottschalk, 1985). Ward's method has been widely studied for the classification of different climatic and hydrological data (Domroes et al., 1998; Jackson and Weinand, 1995; Nathan and McMahon, 1990; Ramachandra Rao and Srinivas, 2006; Hosking and Wallis, 1997). The use of cluster analysis with hydrological variables is based on the similarity of hydrological characteristics, such as geographical, physical, statistical, or stochastic properties (Hassan and Ping, 2012). Hosking and Wallis (1997) recommend that the IHR be based on site statistics, however, Viglione (2007) notes that it is preferable to use site features rather than site statistics. In the process of selecting the regional frequency distribution, it is best to rely on the sample mean and not on a line of best fit through the data points (Naghettini and Pinto, 2007; Peel et al., 2001). Hosking and Wallis (1997) recommend using the statistic Z goodness-of-fit test (ZDIST) for the selection of regional frequency distribution. Consequently, the adjusted regional parameters can be transferred to the specific sites with confidence (Parida and Moalafhi, 2008). ARF applications in Peru were also studied with satisfactory results in estimating extreme events such as maximum rainfall (Fernández and Lavado, 2016; Lujano and Obando, 2015), determination of drought maps (Acuña et al., 2015; Acuña et al., 2011) and regionalization of monthly and annual average flows (Lujano et al., 2016; Lujano et al., 2017). However, the prediction of maximum design flows in ungauged basins through ARF has not yet been reported for the Amazon basin of Peru. Since ARF can be a suitable method for predicting maximum design flows, we focus our analysis on the main research question: Is it possible to obtain accurate results of maximum design flows for different return periods in ungauged basins of the Peruvian Amazon? To provide reasonable answers, this study aimed to perform a regional frequency analysis for the prediction of maximum flows in ungauged basins of the Peruvian Amazon. With the results of the research, it is expected to contribute to the estimation of maximum flows for different return periods, in a short, fast, reliable way and at a low economic cost in ungauged basins within the Amazon basin of Peru. In addition, the results will serve as input for environmental management, disaster risk management, flood control, hydraulic planning, and the design of hydraulic structures. 2. Materials and Methods 2.1. Study area and data The study area comprised 10 basins within the Amazon hydrographic region in Peru (Fig. 1 and Table 1). The smallest and largest basin has an approximate area of 360.4 km2 and 877,478. 6 km2 respectively (Table 2). It is characterized as an exorheic basin system, bordering the western limit with the hydrographic region of the Pacific, to the north with Colombia, while to the east it borders Brazil. The hydrographic region of Titicaca and part of the hydrographic region of the Pacific are its hydrographic limits to the south. The hydrological regime in the southern area of the basin is generalized in the austral summer while in the northern area in autumn. According to Peruvian Interpolation data of SENAMHI Climatological and hydrological Observations (PISCO) precipitation and temperature climate data (1981-2016), with daily temporal resolution and spatial resolution of 0.1° (Aybar et al., 2017), the mean annual precipitation for the basins varies between 737 to 2080.5 mm, while the mean annual temperature varies between 10.0 and 25.7 °C. On the other hand, based on the hydrometric record, the mean annual flow for the basins varied between 74.4 m3/s and 55092.9 m3/s (Table 2). Figure 1 Location of the study area and spatial distribution of hydrometric stations. To define the basin area, we used the NASA Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM), obtained from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, image ID CGIAR/SRTM90_V4 (Jarvis et al., 2008), with a spatial resolution of ∼90 m. The maximum average daily flows were collected from 10 stations located within the study area, of which 5 stations (Tamishiyacu, Chotano Lajas, Llaucano Corellama, Bellavista, and Pucallpa) belong to the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (SENAMHI), 1 station (km 105) to the Machupicchu Electric Generation Company (EGEMSA), while 4 stations (Tabatinga, Nazareth, Borja and San Regis) correspond to the SO-HYBAM Observation Service (formerly Environmental Research Observatory) “Geodynamic, hydrological and biogeochemical control of erosion/alteration and transport of materials in the Amazon, Orinoco and Congo basins”, which has been operational since 2003, responding to an invitation from the French Ministry of Higher Education and Research, which aims to provide the research community with the high-quality scientific data necessary to understand and model the behavior of systems and their long-term dynamics (Table 1). Table 1 Characteristics of hydrometric stations. Basin number River Station Latitude [°] Longitude [°] Data range 1 Amazonas Tamishiyacu (TAM) -4.000 -73.160 1985-2010 2 Ucayali km 105 (KM) -13.183 -72.534 1958-2012 3 Chotano Chotano Lajas (CHL) -6.560 -78.741 1979-2008 4 Llaucano Llaucano Corellama (LLC) -6.687 -78.518 1980-2011 5 Napo Bellavista (BE) -3.480 -73.080 1990-2009 6 Ucayali Pucallpa (PU) -8.378 -74.533 1988-2009 7 Amazonas Tabatinga (TAB) -4.250 -69.933 1983-2017 8 Amazonas Nazareth (NAZ) -4.121 -70.036 1990-2004 9 Marañon Borja (BO) -4.470 -77.548 1987-2016 10 Marañon San Regis (SR) -4.516 -73.908 1999-2014 2.2. Identification of homogeneous regions 2.2.1. Multivariate analysis A fundamental step in the RFA is the IHR. Ward's Method (Ward, 1963), k-means (Hartigan and Wong, 1979), and Andrews curves (Andrews, 1972), are some of the processes used for IHR. Although there are some variations of the Andrews equations, we used the function suggested in Khattree and Naik (2002). Cluster analysis based on Ward's method helps in the preliminary formation of homogeneous regions and takes into account site characteristics (basin area, elevation, latitude and longitude of the measurement site) (Hosking and Wallis, 1997). In this study, site characteristics (latitude and longitude) and site statistics (coefficient of L-variation (L-CV), L-skewness, and L-kurtosis) were considered. Taking into account that the heterogeneity measure is defined in terms of L-CV and the goodness-of-fit measure of the regional frequency distribution is defined in terms of L- kurtosis, Lucas et al. (2017) in their study considered L-CV and L- kurtosis for the identification of homogeneous regions. To define a stable hydrological frequency distribution that allows probabilistic predictions to be estimated at a site, it is necessary that the sample size be large enough (OMM, 2011). However, Hosking and Wallis (1997) indicate that in the RFA the sample size should be ≥ 15 years, moreover, using the parameter estimation method (L-moments) they can produce very reliable results with small sample sizes and even with outliers. Under these premises, we consider hydrometric stations that have a data record ≥ 15 years. From the instantaneous maximum flows, the L-CV, L-skewness, and L-kurtosis site statistics were calculated based on the L-moment relationships. The maximum instantaneous flows (Qp) in m3/s, were estimated based on the relationship proposed by Fuller (1914). The equation is based on the area of the basin (A) in km2 and the daily average maximum flow (Qm) in m3/s: (1) Q p = Q m ( 1 + 2.66 A 0.3 ) The values of 2.66 and 0.3 are dimensionless parameters obtained by Fuller from the study of 24 basins of different sizes in the USA. 2.2.2. L-moments They constitute an alternative system to the traditional method of conventional moments (Hosking, 1990) and arise from linear combinations of the probability weighted moments (PWMs) introduced by Greenwood et al. (1979). For Hosking and Wallis (1997) the estimate is based on a sample of size n, organized in ascending order x1:n ≤ x2:n ≤ … ≤ xn:n. It is convenient to start with an estimator of PWMs βr. An impartial estimator of βr is: (2) β r = n − 1 n − 1 r ∑ j = r + 1 n j − 1 r x j : n Alternatively, it can be written as: (3) β 0 = n − 1 ∑ j = 1 n x j : n (4) β 1 = n − 1 ∑ j = 2 n ( j − 1 ) ( n − 1 ) x j : n (5) β 2 = n − 1 ∑ j = 3 n ( j − 1 ) ( j − 2 ) ( n − 1 ) ( n − 2 ) x j : n (6) β 3 = n − 1 ∑ j = 4 n ( j − 1 ) ( j − 2 ) ( j − 3 ) ( n − 1 ) ( n − 2 ) ( n − 3 ) x j : n Similarly, the L-moments of the sample are defined by: (7) l 1 = β 0 (8) l 2 = 2 β 1 − β (9) l 3 = 6 β 2 − 6 β 1 + β 0 (10) l 4 = 20 β 3 − 30 β 2 + 12 β 1 − β 0 where l1 is the L-location or mean of the distribution, and l2 is the L-scale. L-CV can be defined as: (11) t = l 2 l 1 While the coefficients of L-skewness and L-kurtosis as: (12) t 3 = l 3 l 2 (13) t 4 = l 4 l 2 2.2.3. Regional discordancy measure In this stage, the entire data set was analyzed to verify the existence of incorrect values, outliers, trends, and changes in the sample mean using the measure of discordancy (Di). A site is discordant if Di > Dc. The discordancy measure (Di) for station i is defined as: (14) D i = 1 3 N ( u i − u ¯ ) T A − 1 ( u i − u ¯ ) where u¯=N−1∑i=1Nui is the unweighted regional average of vectors ui, A=∑i=1N(ui−u¯)(ui−u¯)T is the matrix of sums of squares and cross products, N is the number of stations in the study region, ui=t(i),t3(i),t4(i)T, is a vector of the L-moments ratios for the i-th site, t(i), t3(i) and t4(i) are the L-CV, L-skewness and L-kurtosis for station i respectively. 2.2.4. Regional heterogeneity test The homogeneity of each region is assessed using measures of heterogeneity H1, H2, and H3, each based on a different measure of the spread between sites of the L-moments ratios (L-CV, L-skewness and L-kurtosis). Hosking and Wallis (1993) found that H2 and H3 lacked the power to discriminate between homogeneous and heterogeneous regions and that H1 based on L-CV had a much better discriminant power. Therefore, H1 was considered as a main indicator of heterogeneity, denoted by H. (15) H = ( V − μ V ) σ V where μV and σV are the mean and standard deviation of V, derived from a large number of simulated values (Nsim) of the region under study. The weighted standard deviation V, is calculated as: (16) V = ∑ i = 1 N n i ( t i − t R ) 2 ∑ i = 1 N n i 1 / 2 where N is the number of sites in a homogeneous region, ni the sample size for station i, t(i), t3(i) and t4(i) denotes the ratio of L-moments of the sample, t(R), t3(R) and t4(R) are expressed as the regional average of L-CV, L-skewness and L-kurtosis, weighted proportionally to the record length of the sites. (17) t R = ∑ i = 1 N n i t i ∑ i = 1 N n i It fits a kappa distribution as its frequency distribution the average regional L-moments ratios 1, t(R), t3(R) and t4(R). A large number (Nsim = 500) of realizations of a region with N sites are simulated. A region is declared “acceptably homogeneous” if H < 1, “possibly heterogeneous” if 1 ≤ H < 2 and “definitely heterogeneous” if H ≥ 2 (Hosking and Wallis, 1997), or alternatively “acceptably homogeneous” if H < 2, “possibly heterogeneous” if 2 ≤ H < 3 and “definitely heterogeneous” if H ≥ 3 (Wallis et al., 2007). 2.3. Selection of regional frequency distribution Five three-parameter probabilistic distribution functions were evaluated, namely generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized Pareto (GPA), generalized normal (GNO), and Pearson type III (PE3). Parameter estimation was performed using the L-moments method. According to Hosking and Wallis (1997) two-parameter distributions can cause bias in the tail of the estimated quantiles if the shape of the true frequency distribution is not well approximated by the fitted distribution. The best fit distribution is one that gives robust estimates for the regional growth curve as well as for the quantiles at each site. For more detail on the distribution functions, we refer the reader to Hosking and Wallis (1997). 2.3.1. Goodness-of-fit test The regional frequency distribution is chosen based on the goodness-of-fit test ZDIST (Hosking and Wallis, 1997). For each candidate distribution ZDIST is defined: (18) Z D I S T = ( τ 4 D I S T − t 4 R + B 4 ) σ 4 where τ4DIST is the L-kurtosis coefficient of the fitted distribution, DIST refers to GLO, GEV, GPA, GNO and PE3, the standard deviation of t4R is calculated with: (19) σ 4 = ( N s i m − 1 ) − 1 ∑ m = 1 N s i m ( t 4 m − t 4 R ) 2 − N s i m B 4 2 1 / 2 and the bias of t4R is defined by: (20) B 4 = N s i m − 1 ∑ m = 1 N s i m ( t 4 m − t 4 R ) Nsim is the simulated regional data set, using a kappa distribution. The fit is adequate if ZDIST is sufficiently close to zero, a reasonable criterion being |ZDIST| ≤ 1.64. This criterion corresponds to the acceptance of the hypothetical distribution at a confidence level of 90%. 2.4. Regional quantile estimation The index-flood (Dalrymple, 1960), was used to estimate maximum flow quantiles for different return periods. The key assumption of an index-flood procedure is that sites that form a homogeneous region have an identical frequency distribution called the regional growth curve, but a site-specific scale factor (Hosking and Wallis, 1997), the index-flood. The equation used to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows was: (21) Q i T = Q ¯ i q T where Qi(T) is the maximum flow estimate for site i for a given return period of T years in m3/s, Q¯i is the site-dependent scale factor, the index-flood in m3/s, and q(T) is the dimensionless regional growth curve estimated from the regional distribution function of a supposedly homogeneous region, i = 1, 2, …, N denotes the sites and N the number of sites. The sample mean of the maximum flow series (l1) is used as the index-flood (Hosking and Wallis, 1997; OMM, 2011; Viglione, 2007). 2.5. Prediction in ungauged basins The most used characteristics in the regionalization of flows are the drainage area, the length of the main river, the average slope of the main river, the drainage density, and the unevenness of the basin (Tucci, 2002). Morphometric characteristics of the basins, including area, mean elevation, mean slope, length of the main river, slope of the main river, area above 2000 m.a.s.l., the orientation of the basin, center of gravity, the radius of circularity, and climatic characteristics such as the Thornthwaite index and the Budyko index (Viglione, 2007). In this research, to regionalize the index-flood, the area of the basin was used, first verifying the correlation between both variables. The statistical significance of the correlation coefficient was evaluated using the t'Student test at a significance level of 5%. Multiple regression models are the most used to estimate the index-flood in sites without measured data (Viglione, 2007), this approach links the index-flood with the characteristics of the basin. In this study, the linear regression equation was used between the area of the basin and the index-flood. (22) Q ¯ = β 0 + β 1 A + ε where Q¯ is the index-flood in m3/s, A is the basin area in km2, β0 and β1 are the regression parameters and ɛ is an error term. For the estimation of the regression parameters of the model β0 and βi, the method of least squares was used and the statistical significance was evaluated by means of the t'Student test with a level of significance of 5%. The results of the regression were also evaluated through the coefficient of determination R2, defined by: (23) R 2 = ( ∑ i = 1 n ( O i − O ¯ ) ( S i − S ¯ ) ) 2 ( ∑ i = 1 n ( O i − O ¯ ) 2 ( ∑ i = 1 n ( S i − S ¯ ) ) 2 where n is the number of sites, Si is the simulated value, S¯ is the mean of simulated values; Oi is the observed value and O¯ is the mean of observed values. The regression model must satisfy general assumptions such as homoscedasticity (variation of the residual is constant) and normality of residuals (residuals are normally distributed) (Vezza et al., 2010; Vezza et al., 2009). To detect heteroscedasticity, residuals were plotted against fitted values and were also verified using Harrison and McCabe (1979) test. On the other hand, to evaluate the normality of the residuals, we used the Anderson Darling (AD) normality test. Although in order to avoid heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the regression residuals and obtain greater model efficiency, different transformations of the index-flood (Q¯) can be used, such as Q¯, Q¯3 or lnQ¯ (Viglione, 2007; Viglione et al., 2007). In this study, the untransformed index-flood was considered. The regional frequency analysis procedure for predicting maximum flows in ungauged basins is summarized in the flow diagram of Fig. 2. Figure 2 Flow diagram of the regional frequency analysis for the prediction of maximum flows in ungauged basins. 3. Results and Discussions 3.1. Identification of homogeneous regions 3.1.1. Multivariate analysis The functions to estimate the instantaneous maximum flows (Qp) of 10 hydrometric stations (Table 2) deduce that with an increase in the size of the basin, the coefficient to estimate Qp decreases, while in small basins the coefficient increases. For all floods, Qp must be greater than Qm, this is because, in large basins, the runoff rate is high for at least 24 h because the storm that generates it is of considerable duration, while in small basins a storm can cause flooding in few hours resulting in a large Qp and moderate Qm (Fuller, 1914). Table 2 Basin area (A), functions to estimate instantaneous maximum flows (Qp) and index-flood (Q¯), mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT). Station A [km2] Qp [m3/s] Q¯ [m3/s] MAP [mm] MAT [°C] TAM 719917.8 Q p = 1.047 Q m 48594.2 1669.0 21.4 KM 9613.3 Q p = 1.170 Q m 640.8 737.0 10.0 CHL 360.4 Q p = 1.455 Q m 74.4 897.8 15.1 LLC 608.7 Q p = 1.389 Q m 117.8 839.5 12.7 BE 99779.4 Q p = 1.084 Q m 11820.2 2080.5 25.7 PU 260890.0 Q p = 1.063 Q m 20164.4 1456.1 17.3 TAB 877478.6 Q p = 1.044 Q m 55092.9 1759.5 22.2 NAZ 877066.5 Q p = 1.044 Q m 54278.8 1759.5 22.2 BO 114529.8 Q p = 1.081 Q m 13178.4 1205.3 19.6 SR 356882.9 Q p = 1.057 Q m 29042.3 1757.8 23.0 The Ward, k-means, and Andrews methods agreed on the formation of homogeneous regions Figs. 3a-3c respectively. Region 1 includes the TAM, BE, PU, TAB, NAZ, BO, and SR sites, while region 2 may not be well defined due to the low number of sites. Although Ward's method is considered a suitable procedure for a preliminary determination of homogeneous regions (Domroes et al., 1998; Hosking and Wallis, 1997; Jackson and Weinand, 1995; Gottschalk, 1985), however, the k-means method and Andrews curves also allowed the identification of basins with similar hydrological behavior. Although there is no correct number of groups, a balance must be struck between using regions that are too small or too large. Homogeneous regions containing few sites will achieve little improvement in the precision of quantile estimates over in situ analysis. However, as you increase the sites in the region, the precision is higher, but little gain in quantile estimation precision is obtained by using more than about 20 sites in a homogeneous region (Hosking and Wallis, 1997; Viglione, 2007). Under these premises, in the following analysis, only one homogeneous region (region 1) was considered, made up of 7 TAM, BE, PU, TAB, NAZ, BO, and SR sites. Figure 3 Identification of homogeneous regions a) Ward's dendrogram, b) k-means and c) Andrews curves. 3.1.2. Regional discordancy measure and regional heterogeneity test Results of regional and site L-moments relationships for 7 homogeneous basins are given in Fig. 4, L-skewness with L-CV (Fig. 4a) and L-skewness with L-kurtosis (Fig. 4b). Figure 4 Dispersion of the L-moments ratios of the samples, a) L-skewness with L-CV and b) L-skewness with L-kurtosis. The statistics of the discordancy measure for each site (Di), indicate that the values are lower than the critical discordancy (Dc), deducing that the region of 7 sites is not discordant, with Di of each site less than 2.76 (Table 3). For the results of frequency analysis in hydrology to be theoretically valid, each data sample must satisfy certain basic assumptions, such as randomness, independence, homogeneity, and seasonality (OMM, 2011). Hosking and Wallis (1997), indicate that a site is discordant if Di exceeds the Dc of the group, also in the context of the RFA using L-moments, they found that when comparing the relations of the L-moments of the samples from different sites, incorrect data values, outliers, trends, and changes in the mean may be reflected in the L-moments of the data from each site. Apparently, when records are short, climate variability can easily give rise to a trend and can disappear when as much information as possible has been collected (Kundzewicz and Robson, 2004). The heterogeneity statistic for the 7-site group was H = -1.25 (Table 3). According to Hosking and Wallis (1997), a region is declared “acceptably homogeneous” if H < 1, “possibly heterogeneous” if 1 ≤ H < 2, and “definitely heterogeneous” if H ≥ 2. For their part, Wallis et al. (2007) establish that a region is “acceptably homogeneous” if H < 2, “possibly heterogeneous” if 2 ≤ H < 3, and “definitely heterogeneous” if H ≥ 3. Under these deductions, the set of 7 sites belongs to a supposed homogeneous region. if H > 1 Hosking and Wallis (1997) suggest that further subdivision of the region should be considered, as it could improve the precision of the quantile estimates. As it is a purely statistical criterion Wallis et al. (2007) and Schaefer et al. (2006) consider that a region is considered homogeneous if H < 2. Viglione (2007) also suggests accepting H values less than 2 as homogeneous to avoid forming groups that are too small. It is confirmed that region 1 remains made up of stations TAM, BE, PU, TAB, NAZ, BO, and SR. Table 3 Summary of discordancy statistics and regional heterogeneity test for 7 homogeneous basins. Station Di Dc H TAM 0.58 BE 0.98 PU 1.32 TAB 0.50 2.76 -1.25 NAZ 0.25 BO 0.84 SR 1.15 3.2. Selection of regional frequency distribution GEV, PE3, and GNO respectively are the appropriate distributions for the group of 7 sites. However, the GEV distribution is the best-fitted distribution to the regional average (+ symbol) (Fig. 5a). Peel et al. (2001) indicates that the selection of the regional frequency distribution of homogeneous groups is best based on the average of the sample and not on a line of best fit through the data points. Hosking and Wallis (1997) used the statistical Z goodness-of-fit test (|ZDIST| ≤ 1.64), to select the best regional frequency distribution, which means that the true distribution of the region should be accepted approximately 90% of the time. Consequently, the Z statistic confirms that the regional distribution function that best fits the group of 7 homogeneous stations is the GEV distribution, followed by PE3 and GNO (Fig. 5a). Then, the estimated parameters of location, scale, and shape of the regional GEV distribution were ɛ = 0.9638, α = 0.1156 and k = 0.3458, respectively. These regional parameters could be confidently transferred to specific sites (Parida and Moalafhi, 2008). The regional growth curve and error limits for different return periods were elaborated using the GEV distribution function (Fig. 5b). The results indicate that there are higher uncertainty limits when the return period is high. This is also seen in the regional growth curve and peak flows for TAM, TAB, NAZ, BE, BO, PU and SR sites (Figs. 6a-6g) respectively. In periods return high, the uncertainties were larger due to the extrapolation of observed events, both for the regional analysis or on the site. This can represent great risks in hydraulic planning; however, the estimates are within the confidence intervals (Rezende de Souza et al., 2021). Figure 5 a) Relationship diagram of L-moments for basins based on site and regional L-moments and b) regional growth curve. Figure 6 On-site estimated quantiles with uncertainty limits for the GEV distribution, a) TAM, b) TAB, c) NAZ, d) BE, e) BO, f) PU and g) SR. 3.3. Regional quantile estimation GEV was the selected regional distribution function. Consequently, the regional equation to estimate the maximum flows in m3/s for different return periods in basins with information (Fig. 6) and without information for region 1 is deduced as: (24) Q T = [ 0.9638 + 0.1156 0.3458 { 1 − − l n 1 − 1 T 0.3458 } ] * Q ¯ While for the dimensionless quantiles for different return periods it is: (25) Q T Q ¯ = q T = 0.9638 + 0.1156 0.3458 ( 1 − − l n 1 − 1 T 0.3458 3.4. Prediction in ungauged basins The results of the correlation analysis between the area of the basin and the index-flood, resulted in a statistically significant correlation (r = 0.997) with a confidence level of 95% and a significance level of 5%. Consequently, the basin area explained the variability of Q¯ in 99.4% (R2 = 0.994). These results were corroborated with the significance of the parameter β1 evaluated on the basis of the t'Student statistic. Thus, considering a significance level of 5%, the result for β1 gave a p-value < 0.05 (p-value = 7.84E-07), which implies that the changes in A are related to the changes in Q¯. On the other hand, the results of homoscedasticity and normality of the residuals evaluated by means of the HMC and AD tests, indicate that the variance of the residuals is constant (p-value = 0.494) and the residuals are normally distributed (p-value = 0.881) since the p-value is greater than the significance level of 5% (p-value > 0.05), therefore, there is evidence to explain the fulfillment of homoscedasticity (Fig. 7a) and normality (Fig. 7b) of the residuals respectively. Viglione (2007) indicates that the presence of particular patterns in the arrangement of the points can be an index of heteroskedasticity (diversity in variance). Figure 7 Verification of assumptions of a) homoscedasticity and b) normality of residuals. In the analysis, climatic variables such as precipitation and mean annual temperature of the basin were also considered, however, no significant correlation with Q¯ was found. From the above, the basin area would become the explanatory variable to estimate Q¯ in ungauged basins. Viglione (2007) obtains better relationships between the average altitude of the basin, the center of gravity of the basin, and the Budiko index with the flows transformed into logarithms. However, Tucci (2002) finds a better relationship between the area of the basin and the untransformed flows. The regional index-flood equation for region 1 is defined by: (26) Q ¯ = 6987.6393 + 0.0554 ( A ) The standard error for Q¯ was 1565.95 m3/s. The confidence interval for the adjusted model parameter β0, varies between 4271.421 and 9703.857 m3/s while for β1 it varies between 0.0507 and 0.0602, with a 95% confidence level. Lower and upper confidence intervals for ungauged basins can then be calculated based on variations in these parameters (Fig. 8a). The index-flood estimate turned out to be higher for basins with a larger drainage area, but the estimates are within the upper (UCI) and lower (LCI) confidence intervals, which makes its estimation feasible. The index-flood model is only applicable for basins with areas between 99779.4 km2 and 877478.6 km2 as long as they are in region 1, established as a homogeneous region. On the other hand, making use of Eq. 24, the prediction of maximum design flows (Fig. 8b) presents wide ranges of uncertainty, mainly for high return periods. However, together with uncertainty limits, they can be useful for hydraulic planning in ungauged basins, limiting their use of the equation to basins with areas between 99779.4 km2 ≤ A (km2) ≤ 877478.6 km2 and could be used with special caution for basins with areas greater than 877478.6 km2 and less than 99779.4 km2 within the Amazon basin of Peru. According to Rezende de Souza et al. (2021) for flood control and hydraulic structure protection, the most important thing is to consider the upper limit where the maximum flow value is shown, the lower confidence interval being negligible for this approach. Figure 8 a) Linear regression relationships between the index-flood and the basin area, b) prediction of maximum flow quantiles in ungauged basins as a function of the basin area. 4. Conclusions The regional frequency analysis was carried out for the prediction of maximum flows in ungauged basins of the Peruvian Amazon. The main conclusions are summarized below: It was found that, of 10 hydrographic basins analyzed, 7 belong to a region defined as homogeneous. Ward's methods, k-means, Andrews curves, and the heterogeneity test, coincided in the identification of homogeneous regions. The selection of the regional frequency distribution indicates that the GEV function proved to be more adequate to represent the data sample of region 1, presenting a lower ZDIST value with respect to PE3, GNO, GLO, and GPA. The index-flood proved to be related to the area of the basin and is the most significant independent variable for the prediction of the index-flood in ungauged basins within region 1. The model found allows the index-flood to be obtained as a function of the basin area and is valid for the area ranges for which they were established. The maximum flows for different return periods are a function of the regional growth curve and the index-flood. They represent important information that can be used in environmental management, disaster risk management, flood control, hydraulic planning and the design of hydraulic structures in ungauged basins within the Peruvian Amazon for areas within which they were established. The prediction of maximum design flows in ungauged basins presents wide ranges of uncertainty, mainly for high return periods, therefore, in the estimation of maximum flows, uncertainty limits must be incorporated at all frequencies. Although this can represent great risks in hydraulic planning, the estimates are within the confidence intervals. Acknowledgments Our sincere thanks to the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (SENAMHI) - Peru, EGEMSA, and the SO-HYBAM Observation Service for providing the hydrometric information for the realization of this research study. References ACUñA, J.; FELIPE, O.G.; FERNáNDEZ, C. 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