Acessibilidade / Reportar erro

Causality between stock return rates: emerging versus developed capital markets

Using statistical instruments for the analysis of time series, - this work aims to verify the relation of returns of stock investments between the main emerging and the developed capital markets. The sample was divided in two periods: 1995-2002 and 2003-2005, in view of their different external vulnerability moments. At the beginning, - in spite of - several economic crises, only Russia’s stock market returns - suffered great impacts, compared with those at other markets’. Between 2003-2005, however, the returns of other emerging markets, as Brazil’s and Mexico’s, answered in a more significant form to the shocks in the returns of other markets.

International diversification of portfolios; Stock markets; Granger causality; Vector Auto Regressive model; Impulse Response Function


Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Departamento de Contabilidade e Atuária Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 908 - prédio 3 - sala 118, 05508 - 010 São Paulo - SP - Brasil, Tel.: (55 11) 2648-6320, Tel.: (55 11) 2648-6321, Fax: (55 11) 3813-0120 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: recont@usp.br