A Demanda por Vinho no Brasil: elasticidades no consumo das famílias e determinantes da importação

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to analyze the Brazilian market of wine and its recent changes on the demand. One of the hypotheses that guides this work is that the recent increase in household income in real terms and the appreciation of Real against dollar quotes, that happened between 2002 until 2011, have contributed to a shift in the consumption profile of main alcoholic beverages in Brazil. To corroborate these hypotheses, AIDS and VAR Models were estimated. It was observed that the demand for wine is less price elastic than beer but not compared to other alcoholic beverages. Changes in income appear to have almost the same impact on wine and beer consumption than other drinks, less elastic. Regarding the supply of imported wines in the domestic market, the Structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) showed the variance of the amount of the imported wine could be explained, in part, by income and the price of the product, while exchange rate presented less importance. Moreover, part of the quantity variance cannot be explained by these variables.

Key-words:
Wine market; Income; Consumption; Demand; Exchange rate.