Use of a geospatial tool to predict the distribution of Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) and some native freshwater gastropods found in Brazil

Uso de ferramenta geoespacial para predição da distribuição de Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) e alguns gastrópodes límnicos nativos encontrados no Brasil

Abstract:

One of the most common environmental impacts that has caused irreversible effects on ecosystems is the introduction of exotic species. In addition to the ecological disasters that can be caused, such as the decline and extinction of native species, this phenomenon can generate significant economic losses and the possibility of the spread of parasites that are transmitted by these exotic species. These processes can be accentuated by climate change, which over time alters the global distribution pattern of the affected species, generating cases of niche overlap with species that share similar niches. In this sense, the knowledge about the areas with possible occurrence these species can direct the monitoring and control measures. In this study, we developed current and future prediction models to identify areas of suitability in the Neotropics for Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) and nine species of mollusks native to the American continent using the ecological niche modeling tool. In addition, we evaluated the ecological niche overlap between the invasive species and the native species of freshwater mollusks to verify whether the effects of climate change would alter the distribution of these organisms. The following methodological procedures were adopted to prepare the forecasting models: records of occurrence of the mollusks in different databases and search of environmental data for climate conditions in current and future scenarios in WorldClim 2.0 (SSP2-4.5 and SSP2-8.5). Besides, modeling procedures using seven packages of R software, evaluation of the models using the true skill statistic (TSS) metric, construction of maps and quantification and overlapping of ecological niche of the species included in the analysis. The results indicated that several areas of the Neotropics are suitable for the occurrence of M. tuberculata in the current scenarios. Moreover, the suitable areas for its occurrence will probably be expanded in both future scenarios. For native species, there were significant differences in relation to the areas of suitability, with a reduction for some species. Niche similarity tests indicated significant overlap only between M. tuberculata and the planorbid Biomphalaria straminea (Dunker, 1848). We discuss that the expansion of M. tuberculata can have negative consequences, including the reduction of native gastropod species and the spread of trematodes of medical and veterinary importance that this mollusk can transmit.

Keywords: Modeling; ecological niche; exotic species; Neotropic; niche overlap

Resumo:

Um dos impactos ambientais mais comuns que tem causado efeitos irreversíveis nos ecossistemas é a introdução de espécies exóticas. Além dos desastres ecológicos que podem ser provocados, como o declínio e a extinção de espécies nativas, este fenómeno pode gerar perdas económicas significativas e a possibilidade de propagação de parasitas que são transmitidos por estas espécies exóticas. Esses processos podem ser acentuados pelas mudanças climáticas, que ao longo do tempo alteram o padrão de distribuição global das espécies afetadas, gerando casos de sobreposição de nicho com espécies que compartilham nichos semelhantes. Nesse sentido, o conhecimento sobre as áreas com possível ocorrência dessas espécies pode direcionar as medidas de monitoramento e controle. Neste estudo, desenvolvemos modelos de previsão atuais e futuros para identificar áreas de adequabilidade na região Neotropical para Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) e nove espécies de moluscos nativos do continente americano, utilizando a ferramenta de modelagem de nicho ecológico. Além disso, avaliamos a sobreposição de nicho ecológico entre a espécie invasora e as espécies nativas de moluscos de água doce para verificar se os efeitos das mudanças climáticas alterariam a distribuição desses organismos. Para a elaboração dos modelos de predição, foram adotados os seguintes procedimentos metodológicos: registros de ocorrência dos moluscos em diferentes bases de dados e busca de dados ambientais para condições climáticas em cenários atuais e futuros no WorldClim 2.0 (SSP2-4.5 e SSP2-8.5). Além disso, foram realizados procedimentos de modelagem utilizando sete pacotes do software R, avaliação dos modelos utilizando a métrica True Skill Statistic (TSS), construção de mapas e quantificação e sobreposição de nicho ecológico das espécies incluídas na análise. Os resultados indicaram que várias áreas da região Neotropical são adequadas para a ocorrência de M. tuberculata nos cenários atuais. Além disso, as áreas adequadas para a sua ocorrência serão provavelmente alargadas em ambos os cenários futuros. Para as espécies nativas, houve diferenças significativas em relação às áreas de aptidão, com uma redução para algumas espécies. Testes de similaridade de nicho indicaram sobreposição significativa apenas entre M. tuberculata e o planorbídeo Biomphalaria straminea (Dunker, 1848). Verificamos que a expansão de M. tuberculata pode ter consequências negativas, incluindo a redução de espécies nativas de gastrópodes e a disseminação de trematódeos de importância médica e veterinária que este molusco pode transmitir.

Palavras-chave: Modelagem; nicho ecológico; espécie exótica; Neotrópico; sobreposição de nicho

Introduction

The introduction of exotic species is one of the biggest irreversible impacts on ecosystems around the world, because, in addition to reducing global biodiversity, significant economic losses and even health problems can be generated (Bocxlaer et al. 2015). The rate of introductions has increased dramatically in recent decades due to the globalization of anthropogenic activities, leaving virtually no region unchanged (Steger et al. 2021). Ecologically, invasive species cause the decline and migration of native species, causing permanent damage to the environment, as they act as competitors and predators and can hybridize with native species, generating their genetic characteristics (Fernández and Hamilton 2015; Salwiyah 2022). Furthermore, eliminating these species can be difficult because they are highly adaptable to even adverse environmental conditions and their populations grow very quickly (Mainali et al. 2015).

Another factor that has directly influenced the distribution of species, whether exotic or not, is climate change, manifested mainly by the increase in average global temperature and extreme and unpredictable weather (Arneth et al. 2020; Shivanna, 2022). Maxwell et al. (2019) reviewed a total of 519 studies carried out between 1941 and 2015 that addressed ecological impacts caused by extreme weather events, covering a range of animals, including invertebrates. Negative ecological responses were reported for 57% of all animal groups analyzed, including 31 cases of local extirpation and 25% of population decline. These data show how climate change is having irreversible consequences on biodiversity, especially by disrupting the ecological niches of the most susceptible species and affecting the conditions of their habitats, causing massive migration of species to other locations in search of more suitable conditions for their survival. Therefore, the introduction of exotic species and climate change are two of the main factors that have altered the distribution mosaic of species around the globe, accentuating cases of interspecific competition caused mainly by the overlapping of ecological niches between the affected species (Hisano et al. 2018; Sintayehu, 2018; Rubenstein et al. 2023).

Several freshwater mollusks have been reported as invaders in different parts of the world, causing potential economic impacts, ecosystemic impacts or even the transmission of parasitic diseases (Jiang et al. 2022; Preston et al. 2022). This is the case of Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774), a thiarid species with Asian and African origins, but currently has a global distribution in tropical and subtropical habitats (Bezerra et al. 2022; Tolley-Jordan et al. 2022; Pinto et al. 2023). Melanoides tuberculata is a strategist, with reproduction mainly by parthenogenesis, resulting in the establishment and maintenance of high population densities for long periods of time (Pointier et al. 2011; Duggan et al. 2022). Moreover, its high tolerance and adaptability to aquatic ecosystems with different degrees of trophic state, including oligotrophic to hypereutrophic environments favor the spread of this invasive species in different areas of the world (Molozzi et al. 2011). From the parasitological point of view, M. tuberculata is known as the vector of dozens of species of trematodes worldwide, several of them also reported as invasive species (Pinto et al. 2011; Metz et al. 2022).

In the Americas, M. tuberculata was introduced in the United States in the 1950s, probably through the aquarium trade. Since then, this thiarid has been spreading over the continent, and was already reported in 34 countries (Metz et al. 2023; Pinto et al. 2023) in South America. Brazil is by far the country with the most records. In fact, currently, M. tuberculata has been reported in all regions, including the Brazilian semiarid region, where it has been described colonizing various types of water collections (Coelho et al. 2018; Seuffert et al. 2023). In the semiarid region, which comprises 12% of the country’s territory and stretches across the nine northeastern states and the northern state of Minas Gerais, the water ecosystems consist of natural shallow lakes, artificial reservoirs and intermittent rivers and streams (Barbosa et al. 2012; Alvalá et al. 2019). These systems function as a mosaic, constantly changing between dry and rainy seasons, and are home to several species of native gastropod mollusks that constantly have to adapt to these changes. Despite their great importance, gastropod mollusks from the semi-arid region are little studied and records of their distribution in the region and elsewhere are very scarce. In addition, the relationship that native species have with exotic ones in Brazil is still poorly understood, but some studies have already shown the potential competition between some species (Kotzian and Amaral 2013; Paiva et al. 2018).

On the other hand, despite being widely distributed in the Brazilian semiarid, few studies have shown the impact of the invasion of M. tuberculata in this region, especially in comparison with native species, such as those of the genus Biomphalaria. The occurrence of ecological niche overlap between species, such as M. tuberculata and other native gastropods, can directly affect the phylogenetic diversity of invaded communities and food webs, making these environments more vulnerable to disturbances, especially by reducing the adaptation potential of the populations living there. In addition, niche overlap can disrupt important ecosystem processes, such as nutrient cycling and pest control, leading to a loss of ecosystem services. Changes in population dynamics, especially involving gastropods which have high reproductive potential, and in trophic interactions can have a cascading effect throughout the food chain (Raw et al. 2016; Ouedraogo et al. 2023). The dispersal of M. tuberculata in the semiarid region has been facilitated mainly by the artificial water courses between rivers and basins, and the climatic conditions of the environment have made the Brazilian semi-arid region a true home for these species. It is, therefore, necessary to understand the dynamics involved in the occurrence of this species and how it can inhibit the development of others (Barros et al. 2020).

In the last times, the incorporation of geospatial technologies into the ecological field has made it possible to significantly increase knowledge about the distribution of exotic species and native species in poorly studied areas. The use of geographic information systems (GIS) and the adoption of remote sensing (RS) data products haves been widely used to map these species. Moreover, this approach has been an essential tool for understanding the expansion and effects of the introduction of invasive exotic species into various environments (Deka 2022). The use of these tools in studies involving mollusks makes it possible to assess their ecological status, as these animals act as ecological and environmental contamination bioindicators (Moraitis et al. 2018).

In this study, we developed prediction models for current and future occurrence in the Neotropics under climate change scenarios for M. tuberculata and nine species of mollusks native to the Americas that have been recorded in the Brazilian semiarid region. In addition, we evaluated the ecological niche overlap between the invasive species and these native species in order to verify whether the effects of climate change would alter the distribution of these organisms.

Material and Methods

^1.

Occurrence data

Mollusk records were obtained by accessing online databases and the literature. We used the following online databases to search for the occurrence of the target species: GBIF (www.gbif.org) and Species Link (www.splink.cria.org.br). The following species and their respective doi numbers from GBIF were selected for this study: Melanoides tuberculata (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.m889j4); Biomphalaria glabrata (Say, 1818) (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.4mbxak); Biomphalaria straminea (Dunker, 1848) (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.uz7258); Pomacea canaliculata (Lamarck, 1822) (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.9t25hk); Stenophysa marmorata (Guilding, 1828) (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.8fzhcd); Drepanotrema cimex (Moricand, 1839) (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.sykcp5); Drepanotrema depressissimum (Moricand, 1839) (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.9f2wym); Drepanotrema lucidum (Pfeiffer, 1839) (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.4d8y4m); Drepanotrema schubarti (Haas, 1938) (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.wvmzzn); Uncancylus concentricus (d’Orbigny, 1835) (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.h84jhb). The literature search was conducted in Web of Science primary collection using the scientific names of each species combined with “occurrence” and “record” as keywords. We verified the geographical coordinates of the occurrence sites using Google Earth software version 7.3 (https://earth.google.com) and Google Maps (https://maps.google.com.br). We used a spatial data filter to avoid spatial autocorrelation of the data obtained. In addition, we created a grid with pixels of 5.0’ arc from the equator and selected only one occurrence record within each pixel.

The final dataset resulted in 1,540 occurrence records. For the invasive species M. tuberculata, 193 records were obtained in its native area (Africa and Asia) and 201 records in the non-native area (Neotropics). For the other species, native to the American continent, 1,146 occurrence records were obtained, distributed as follows: B. glabrata (234), B. straminea (511), P. canaliculata (71), S. marmorata (57), D. cimex (43), D. depressissimum (52), D. lucidum (97), D. schubarti (35), and U. concentricus (39). After obtaining the occurrence records, we created a dataset containing information on geographical coordinates (in decimal degrees) and species names.

^2.

Environmental data

Environmental data for current and future climate conditions was obtained from WorldClim 2.0 (https://www.worldclim.com/version2) with a spatial resolution of approximately 10 km (5 arc-minute resolution). The 19 raw bioclimatic variables were used in our modeling experiment. The current scenario variables were standardized and subjected to principal component analysis (PCA), and we then used the first six principal components responsible for approximately 95% of the variations as predictors. This approach was used to avoid multicollinearity between climate variables. We used the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the future projection (2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090). The SSPs represent baseline pathways with variable human behavior reflected in actions that change land cover, and together with greenhouse gas emissions, they provide scenarios of future global change. SSP2-4.5 reflects an intermediate scenario, while SSP5-8.5 translates into a pessimistic scenario. Other databases that included variables directly related to aquatic environments were considered for this study, however, they only presented data for the present, without projections for future models in the scenarios used in this study, so we only considered those available in WorldClim 2.0.

^3.

Modeling procedures

We modeled the 10 species of gastropod mollusks using six different mathematical algorithms: Bioclim, Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Random Forest (RF), Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), and Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The combined use of different classes of algorithms creates more reliable predictions (Peterson 2011) and makes it possible to have multiple views with the aim of creating a consensus between them at the end, with a consensus map being generated for each species separately. All the models generated were evaluated using the true skill statistic (TSS), applying the threshold maxSpecSens (Allouche 2006).

The TSS metric measures how well the model’s prediction separated the “yes” events from the “no” events. It ranges from -1 to 1, where -1 indicates no discrimination ability of the model and 1 indicates perfect discipline ability. We created area of environmental suitability (AES) projections for the present and future for all the models and we use weighted average as a consensus method in the resulting maps using the value of the TSS metric so that the best-evaluated models would have greater representation within the consensus (Zhang et al. 2015). We combined all the projections produced from all the models to build consensus maps for the present and future for each species and for each climate scenario. Finally, we transformed the maps from each model into binary maps (i.e. presence or absence) based on the threshold, maxSpecSens, that maximized sensitivity and specificity. To calculate the areas of suitability for each species, the rasters corresponding to the scenarios used were imported into the QGIS environment. In order to adjust the values contained in the rasters to a more meaningful categorized representation, the native tool called “reclassify by table” was used, accessible via the QGIS processing toolbox. This reclassification method, also known as Jenks’ natural interval, was considered because it allows us to determine the best arrangement of values in different clades, leaving the intervals more balanced, seeking to reduce variance within classes and maximize variance between classes. This reclassification procedure was conducted using a series of intervals, which were defined as: 0 to 0.24 (classified as “very low”), 0.25 to 0.40 (classified as “low”), 0.50 to 0.80 (classified as “high”) and 0.90 to 1 (classified as “very high”).

Once the aforementioned reclassification had been carried out, the calculation of the areas referring to the “high” and “very high” classes was carried out using the tool called “r.report”, also found in the QGIS processing toolbox. The aim of this calculation was to obtain the areas of these categorized classes, with a focus on establishing the extent of territorial occupation associated with the highest categories of influence. It is worth mentioning that this analysis was carried out in QGIS version 3.28. For a more complete and dynamic assessment, the previously processed rasters were overlaid. The main purpose of this overlay was to identify spatial patterns of expansion or contraction in the areas under analysis. We also sought to quantify these variations in terms of square kilometers (km²), in order to provide a measurable assessment of the changes observed in the scenarios in question. This methodological approach allowed for a detailed and well-founded analysis of territorial dynamics, highlighting the importance of using geospatial techniques to understand trends and developments in environmental studies (Liu et al. 2005).

^4.

Quantification and ecological niche overlap

We compared the environmental conditions available to the native species with the environmental conditions available to the invasive species using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method available in the ecospat package (Cola et al. 2016). This method quantifies and compares the ecological niche of the invasive species (M. tuberculata) and the native species. The comparison of niche overlap was made using the D metric (Schoener 1970), with values ranging from 0 (no overlap between niches) to 1 (complete overlap between niches) of the PCA scores for the global environment.

We used the niche equivalence test to assess whether the ecological niches of the native and invasive areas of M. tuberculata are significantly different from each other and whether the two niche spaces are interchangeable. To do this, we compared the niche overlap values (D) with a null distribution of 100 overlap values. We determined the non-equivalence of ecological niches if the niche overlap value of the species being compared was (P ≤ 0.05).

In addition, we carried out a niche similarity test between the invasive species and the native species to determine whether their ecological niches are more different than expected by chance, taking into account the differences in the surrounding environmental conditions in the geographical areas where both species are distributed (Warren et al. 2008). A significant difference in the niche similarity test would indicate not only differences in the environmental niche space occupied by the two species but also that these differences are not due to the geographically available environmental conditions.

Results

The current distribution models showed that several areas of the Neotropics, other than those where the species was already reported, are suitable for M. tuberculata, including the semiarid region and part of central-western and southeastern Brazil. Occurrence data obtained in this study already showed the potential for this species to be widely distributed throughout the Neotropics (Figure 1). In addition, South American countries such as Venezuela, Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, a large part of Central America and the west coast of Mexico have sites with suitable conditions for the occurrence of the species. By calculating the total potential distribution area for the current scenario of M. tuberculata, it was possible to verify that 5,108,917 km² of the entire modeled region is suitable for it.

Figure 1
Distribution of the freshwater mollusk species selected in this study throughout the Neotropics based on the occurrence records obtained.

In relation to planorbids, B. glabrata has a total area of suitability of 2,773,055 km², especially in the northeast and southeast regions of Brazil compared to B. straminea, which was 2,231,884 km² with the area of suitability more restricted to the Brazilian semiarid region. The species of the genus Drepanotrema sp. had a very varied potential area of current distribution, with D. cimex having a suitable area of 8,501,827 km², a large part of South and Central America, including the whole of Cuba, while D. depressissimum has a suitable area of 6,766,300 km², more concentrated in the southeast, midwest and part of the north of Brazil, as well as in areas of Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina and almost all of Central America and southern Mexico. Drepanotrema lucidum has a suitable area of 7,021,695 km², mainly in some areas of the Amazon and central-western Brazil, in localities in northern South America and a large part of Central America, while D. schubarti is the species of the genus with the smallest suitable area, 2,240,968 km², restricted especially to part of the Brazilian semiarid region, Venezuela and localities in Central America. Uncancylus concentricus is the only representative of the Planorbidae family that has a suitable area further south in Brazil and Uruguay, with 5,651,553 km².

With regard to the species P. canaliculata and S. marmorata, it was possible to calculate their current potential distribution area at 3,679,249 km² and 6,596,408 km², respectively. The former is particularly suitable for occurrence in eastern Argentina, central-southern Paraguay and most of Uruguay, while the latter has a wide area of potential occurrence in South America (Figure 2).

Figure 2
Current distribution maps showing the areas of suitability for the freshwater gastropod species selected in the study for the entire Neotropics.

In relation to the future projection models, our results indicate an increase in the area of suitability for M. tuberculata in both scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP2-8.5). For the native species, it was not possible to observe major changes in the same areas for the SSP2-4.5 scenario, however, it was observed that for the SSP2-8.5 scenario there will be significant reductions in suitable areas for the species B. straminea, B. glabrata and D. cimex, while there will be an increase for the species D. lucidum, P. canaliculata, S. marmorata and U. concentricus. It was possible to observe a change in the location of the area of suitability in the extreme south of Brazil and Uruguay for the species D. depressissimum (Figures 3 and 4).

Figure 3
Future distribution maps of the freshwater gastropod mollusks selected in this study showing areas of suitability in the Neotropics for the SSP2-4.5 scenario (optimistic scenario). The grey parts represent areas of suitability for the 2030s, while orange for the 2050s, yellow for the 2070s and red for the 2090s. The parts of the maps in white represent areas not suitable for the species in the periods mentioned.

Figure 4
Future distribution maps of the freshwater gastropod mollusks selected in this study showing areas of suitability in the Neotropics for the SSP2-8.5 scenario (pessimistic scenario). The grey parts represent areas of suitability for the 2030s, while orange for the 2050s, yellow for the 2070s and red for the 2090s. The parts of the maps in white represent areas not suitable for the species in the periods mentioned.

Melanoides tuberculata and the native species showed distinct ecological niches and little overlap, with the invasive species occupying an extensive and more prominent climatic space than the native species (Figure 5). Using the D metric, we rejected the hypothesis of niche equivalence for M. tuberculata, i.e. we concluded that there was no significant difference between the niches occupied by the populations inhabiting the native area and those inhabiting the invasive area. The niche similarity tests indicated that the values overlapped only between the species M. tuberculata and B. straminea (Table 1). The areas of occurrence for both species are quite similar in some regions. From the data obtained, we can see that the areas where they overlap in the current and future scenarios are quite diverse, especially in central and northeastern Brazil and part of northern South America (Table S1). In future scenarios, due to the expansion of M. tuberculata, the areas of niche overlap tend to increase in regions that were previously inhabited mainly by B. straminea (Figure 6).

Figure 5
The resulting graphs show a comparison of the ecological niche of Melanoides tuberculata with native species. The green dashed line represents all the environmental conditions present in the native area for the invasive species, while the red dashed line represents these conditions for the area occupied by the invasive species. The green part represents the conditions occupied by the species in the native area, but not in the invaded area, while the pink area represents the opposite. Finally, the blue area shows the conditions occupied in both areas.

Table 1
Results of the comparison of niche overlap between Melanoides tuberculata and native gastropod species. The significant p-value of the similarity test is highlighted with *.

Species	Overlap (D)	p-Value (D)
B. glabrata	0.1316734398	0,3786
B. straminea	0,2008028493	0,0053*
D. cimex	0,2218266333	0,4549
D. depressissimum	0,241211981	0,4248
D. lucidum	0,5461481415	0,0523
D. schubarti	0,1019837394	0,1573
P. canaliculata	0,3140188918	0,0765
S. marmorata	0,2619725568	0,2359
U. concentricus	0,4295030368	0,2593

Figure 6
Map showing the areas of ecological niche overlap in the Neotropics between the exotic species Melanoides tuberculata and the native species Biomphalaria straminea.

Discussion

Through the current distribution models, it was possible to observe a wide distribution of Melanoides tuberculata in Latin America, which can be explained by the ability of this invader to inhabit natural and artificial environments such as rivers, swamps, lakes, lagoons, irrigation canals, dams and other types of reservoirs (Salwiyah 2022), by its capacity for parthenogenetic reproduction, with the ability to maintain high population rates for long periods of time, as well as having great migratory capacity and easy adaptation (Molozzi et al. 2011).

Our results corroborate the data obtained by Coelho et al. (2018), who through a bibliographic survey and analysis of collections deposited in museums, found that the presence of this gastropod is more common in the northeast-southeast regions of the country, with isolated records in other regions. In addition, data on the occurrence of this species in the coastal region of Mexico and in areas of Central America have also been found in other studies (Albarran-Melze et al. 2009; López et al. 2015; López-Altarriba et al. 2019; Madrid and Collin 2021). Future distribution models show that there will be a significant increase in the colonization areas of this species on the American continent, confirming that these individuals can tolerate to climate change and that they have the potential to expand their area of occurrence even under adverse conditions.

In the Brazilian semiarid region, Santos and Eskinazi-Sant’Anna (2008) reported populations of M. tuberculata that were able to reach extremely high densities, with values above 10,000 ind.m−2. In addition, the association of the mollusk with aquatic macrophytes typical of the region has been pointed out as one of the factors that favors its distribution in various locations in the semi-arid region (Thomaz et al. 2008)). The ability of this species to adapt to extreme conditions of temperature, salinity and dissection has allowed it to increase its areas of occurrence in the region, while its expansion has caused the decline of some native mollusks such as P. lineata and Aylacostoma tenuilabris (Reeves, 1860) (Silva et al. 2019). Even in drought conditions, which are common during some months of the year in the semiarid region, M. tuberculata can easily colonize various types of small and large water reservoirs that are built to supply local populations living in the region (Silva et al. 2020). However, we believe that the distribution of M. tuberculata is greater than represented in our model, given that this species has already been described in temperate environments with lower temperatures than in tropical environments, such as in some regions of Argentina and Uruguay (Peso et al. 2011; Duggan and Knox 2022; Jihad and Makawi 2022).

The current and future distribution models for the native species were quite divergent. For individuals of the genus Biomphalaria, it was possible to observe losses of exclusive distribution areas when comparing the current and future distribution models. However, the more intense presence of these species in the northeast and southeast regions of Brazil may explain the greater prevalence of schistosomiasis mansoni in these regions (Galvão et al. 2022; Sousa et al. 2022). Habib et al. (2021), mention temperature as an abiotic factor and the availability of food, physical substrate and the absence of natural predators as the main biotic factors related to the survival and dispersal of species of this genus in tropical regions. Significant changes were not observed for U. concentricus, which, according to our models, will not have its distribution greatly affected in future scenarios.

Species of the genus Drepanotrema are drought-tolerant and can often be found in temporary water collections. Despite their short life cycle, populations of these organisms can quickly re-establish themselves with the return of the rains (Leal et al. 2021; Barboza et al. 2022). In our models, it was possible to observe a wide distribution of most species of the genus on the American continent, with the exception of D. schubarti, which proved to be more restricted to a few regions. However, data on this species is very scarce and information on its distribution may be underestimated due to its taxonomic similarities with D. lucidum (Kotzian and Amaral 2013).

There were few changes in the areas of suitability in the current and future models in both scenarios for the species P. canaliculata. These individuals generally inhabit shallow, lentic waters and, due to their amphibious habit, are well adapted to the changes that occur in water collections. Although data on the occurrence of this species is still scarce, it is known to have a high invasive potential, making it one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world (Yin et al. 2022). In the 1980s, this species and others of its genus were introduced to the Asian continent from various locations in Argentina and became a major pest of rice and other aquatic crops (Seuffert and Martín 2013). In addition, studies have shown that P. canaliculata has the ability to promote changes in the environment in natural wetlands resulting from the depletion of filamentous algae and macrophytes, as well as promoting an increase in phytoplankton biomass (Carlssson et al. 2004; Fang et al. 2010).

With regard to the S. marmorata, there was a considerable increase in areas of suitability when comparing the current and future models, especially in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, where it can be seen that this species tends to occupy a large part of the Brazilian territory and other South American countries. Considered a pioneer species, S. marmorata can quickly adapt to environmental changes, colonize different types of environments and establish populations even in polluted environments with some degree of anthropization (Souza et al. 2006; Núñez 2011).

Most of the environmental niche of the native species B. straminea is contained in the environmental niche of the invasive species M. tuberculata. This can be translated as a possible way of assessing which species can act as a biological control for the other, as previous studies have already mentioned (Pointier et al. 1989; Pointier et al. 1991; Guimarães et al. 2001). Both species have a very similar ecological niche, but M. tuberculata has a large portion of its niche exclusively, where only this species occurs. Our results show that in both future scenarios B. straminea will have its main distribution area more restricted to the Brazilian semi-arid, not very different from its current distribution, while M. tuberculata will spread to several other regions that it does not currently occupy.

The growing and worrying expansion of M. tuberculata on the American continent goes beyond ecological issues. Several studies have already identified trematodes species of medical importance that are transmitted by this gastropod, such as Centrocestus formosanus, Haplorchis pumilio and Philophthalmus gralli (Paula-Andrade et al. 2012; Heneberg et al. 2014; Ximenes et al. 2017; Lopes et al. 2020; Pinto et al. 2023). Thus, the growth of areas of suitability for the invasive species, as pointed out in this study, represents a potential risk for the consequent increase in cases of trematode infection transmitted by this species, especially in the southernmost regions of the continent, which in both future scenarios present suitable conditions for its development.

Ecological niche modeling is therefore an important tool for describing the main abiotic components of a species’ ecological niche and estimating its potential distribution, as well as for identifying the environmental factors that sustain contact zones between different species. For this reason, the development of predictive models involving freshwater molluscs is extremely important, not only for assessing aspects related to the impacts of exotic species on the environment (Jovem-Azevêdo 2022), but also to identify areas of suitability for the occurrence of vector species of parasitic helminths (Sholte et al. 2012; Rumi et al. 2017; Palasio et al. 2021). However, despite being a methodology that has received a lot of attention in recent years (Lawrence et al. 2023), for the development of this, some challenges are still pertinent such as the low amount of occurrence data for some species, geographical and even taxonomic bias can be found in these records and the occurrence of errors and inaccuracy in environmental data in some databases (Elith et al. 2010). Although the results obtained in this study reveal essential information about the current and future distribution of these species, our main limiting factor was the fact that we did not use databases that showed bioclimatic variables directly associated with hydrological environments. This was due to the fact that the databases consulted did not include these variables in climate models for future scenarios, which we believe could make it difficult to interpret the data.

Finally, we conclude that is therefore of fundamental importance to carry out studies that analyze the spatial distribution and potential of these and other mollusks species, whether they are invasive or not, in order to conserve species that may be affected by climate change and try to minimize the harmful effects of problematic individuals, whether in relation to environmental, ecological or health impacts.

Supplementary Material

The following online material is available for this article:

Table S1 - Results of ecological niche overlap analyses between M. tuberculata and native species.

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES), Brazil Ph.D. scholarship to DGSS (award number 88887.625337/2021-00). Thanks are due to the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), Brazil, for the research scholarship to HAP.

Data Availability

Supporting data are available at:

https://github.com/darlebio/scripts-paper.git

https://github.com/darlebio/matriz-paper.git

https://github.com/darlebio/Similarity-paper.git

https://github.com/darlebio/Evaluation-paper.git

https://github.com/darlebio/occurrence-paper

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Edited by

• Associate Editor
  Mercedes Marchese

Publication Dates

• Publication in this collection
  14 Oct 2024
• Date of issue
  2024

History

• Received
  03 Apr 2024
• Accepted
  16 Aug 2024