The first hundred days of COVID-19 in Pernambuco State, Brazil: epidemiology in historical context

Abstract:

The timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic began on December 31, 2019, in China, with SARS-CoV-2 identified as the etiological agent. This article aims to describe the COVID-19 epidemic’s spatial and temporal dynamics in the first hundred days in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. We present the evolution in cases and deaths according to epidemiological weeks. We analyzed the series of accumulated daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, with projections for the subsequent 15 days, using the JoinPoint app. This software allows identifying turning points, testing their statistical significance. We also analyze the trend in the spread of COVID-19 to the interior of the state, considering the percent distribution of cases in the state capital, Recife, municipalities in Greater Metropolitan Recife, and the state’s interior, by sets of three weeks, constructing thematic maps. The first hundred days of the COVID-19 epidemic resulted in 52,213 cases and 4,235 deaths from March 12, or epidemiological week 11, until June 20, 2020 (epidemiological week 25). The peak in the epidemic curve occurred in epidemiological week 21 (May 23), followed by deceleration in the number of cases. We initially detected the spread of cases from the city center to the periphery of the state capital and Metropolitan Area, followed by rapid spread to the state’s interior. There was a decrease in the mean daily growth starting in April, but with an average threshold of more than 6,000 weekly cases of COVID-19. At the end of the period, the state’s case series indicates the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 circulation and community transmission. Finally, paraphrasing Gabriel Garcia Marques in One Hundred Years of Solitude, we ask whether we are facing “a pause in the storm or a sign of redoubled rain”.

Keywords:
COVID-19; Epidemiologic Factors; Time Series Studies