From Leme to Santa Cruz: the electoral territorialization of Jair Bolsonaro in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro

Mayra Goulart Silva Paula Frias dos Santos Luan Sudário da Silva About the authors


The objective of this article is to demonstrate how social indicators can help to elucidate the process of expansion of the electoral base of Jair Bolsonaro in his parliamentary career and, more recently, as presidential candidate, observing ruptures and continuities in this trajectory. The method used is a correlation between the Social Development Index of the city of Rio de Janeiro and the spatialized electoral performance of the candidate in the elections of 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018. With this effort, we hope to offer data to those considering the following questions: what is the profile of those voters who have supported Jair Bolsonaro throughout his parliamentary trajectory? Were there any changes in this profile? How did his electoral base expand in the process of building his candidacy for the presidency of the republic?

electoral geography; vote spatialization; political behavior; social indicators; Jair Bolsonaro

Centro de Estudos de Opinião Pública da Universidade Estadual de Campinas Cidade Universitária 'Zeferino Vaz", CESOP, Rua Cora Coralina, 100. Prédio dos Centros e Núcleos (IFCH-Unicamp), CEP: 13083-896 Campinas - São Paulo - Brasil, Tel.: (55 19) 3521-7093 - Campinas - SP - Brazil