Migration and Urban Sclerosis: an Analysis for Minas Gerais (1991-2010)

Ferreira, Sandro de Freitas; Bastos, Suzana Quinet de Andrade; Fernandes, Ana Clara de Almeida Teixeira

doi:10.12957/rdc.2022.53172

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Articles • Rev. Dir. Cid. 14 (1) • Jan-Mar 2022 • https://doi.org/10.12957/rdc.2022.53172 linkcopy

Migration and Urban Sclerosis: an Analysis for Minas Gerais (1991-2010)

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

This research analyzes at a descriptive and exploratory level the relationship between immigration rate and a set of socioeconomic variables characterizing "urban sclerosis", as defined by Moore (1997), in the minimum comparable areas (AMCs) between 1991 and 2010. In addition to the delimitation of ad hoc groups of AMCs propose the multivariate analysis of clusters for the definition of natural clusters, based on those variables, and the discriminant analysis to validate these natural groups in the investigation of the presence of urban sclerosis. It is not possible to show that in the AMCs with the highest immigration rates the deterioration of socioeconomic indicators is present; either under ad hoc classification or under multivariate classification. The research seeks to contribute to the ongoing debate about the net effects of excess immigration, especially regarding the classification of observation units in terms of immigration rate.

Keywords:
immigration; urban sclerosis; socioeconomic determinants; ad hoc clusters; multivariate methods

variable	subtitle	description	variable construction	origin
immigration fee	ti	percentage of immigrants in AMC	ratio between the number of immigrants and the population size of the AMC, multiplied by 100	census/IBGE
population growth rate	P_tc	population growth	percentage change in population size (population consists of residents in permanent private households)	Atlas of Human Development (ADH)
rate of change in the proportion of employed persons	Te_tc	percentage change in the proportion of employed persons; proxy for job creation	1991-2000: ratio between the number of employed persons and population size, multiplied by 100; 2000-2010: ratio between the number of people employed in the commerce, services and transformation sectors, and the population size, multiplied by 100	1991-2000: IPEADATA; 2000-2010: ADH
rate of change in the unemployment rate	Td_tc	percentage change in the unemployment rate	unemployment rate calculated from the unemployed population aged 16 and over (economically active)	SIM-DATASUS-Ministry of Health
average per capita income	rpc	proxy for average salary received by the population	ratio between the sum of the income of all individuals residing in permanent private households and the total number of these individuals (values in reais as of August 1, 2010)	ADH
rate of change in average per capita income	Rpc_tc	average income per capital growth	percentage change in average per capita income	idem
percentage of poor	Pob_p	poor population	ratio between the number of individuals, living in permanent private households, with a per capita household income equal to or less than R$140.00 per month (in reais as of August 2010), and the population size, multiplied by 100	idem
rate of change of the percentage of poor	Pob_p_tc	percentage change of poor	percentage change in the proportion of poor	idem
violent crime rate	cv	violent crime level	ratio between the number of occurrences of violent crimes (homicide, attempted murder, rape, robbery and armed robbery) and population size, multiplied by 100,000.	João Pinheiro Foundation
Tax Burden	ct	proxy for individual tax burden	ratio between the net revenue per capita (ratio between the value of the budget revenue of the municipal administration, deducting credit operations, and the total population) and the average per capita income (rpc)	João Pinheiro Foundation

time course	tests	original variables		transformed variables
time course	tests	values	p-value	values	p-value
1991-2000	Jennrich chi2(45)	2418,59	0,0000	-	-
	Lawley chi2(44)	2369,65	0,0000	-	-
	Mardia Skewness chi2(220)	90182,462	0,0000	9018,047	0,0000
	Mardia Kurtosis chi2(1)	5,09E+05	0,0000	11551,171	0,0000
	Henze-Zirkler chi2(1)	63284,591	0,0000	17089,881	0,0000
2000-2010	Jennrich chi2(45)	2273,34	0,0000	-	-
	Lawley chi2( 44)	2224,3	0,0000	-	-
	Mardia Skewness chi2(220)	83123,733	0,0000	2822,971	0,0000
	Mardia Kurtosis chi2(1)	4,31E+05	0,0000	2025,509	0,0000
	Henze-Zirkler chi2(1)	28399,778	0,0000	3408,468	0,0000

Grupos		ti	p_tc	te_tc	td_tc	rpc	rpc_tc	pob_p	pob_p_tc	cv	ct
1	média	4,43	1,06	9,35	291,39	370,92	57,13	32,77	-40,51	27,51	1,64
	dp*	8,51	0,14	18,37	187,23	143,72	33,89	16,86	17,81	34,33	0,94
	cv**	1,92	0,13	1,96	0,64	0,39	0,59	0,51	-0,44	1,25	0,57
2	média	2,59	1,04	6,50	4511,17	358,58	76,09	39,52	-31, 12	29,12	1,61
	dp	1,56	0,12	21,11	1509,60	129,45	44,15	18,71	13,00	25,96	0,60
	cv	0,60	0,11	3,25	0,33	0,36	0,58	0,47	-0,42	0,89	0,37
3	média	21,62	1,08	56,56	1257,95	321,70	55,15	39,41	-34,31	22,94	1,79
	dp	144,23	0,14	74,04	507,49	130,82	32,60	18,71	21,48	19,95	0,93
	cv	6,67	0,13	1,31	0,40	0,41	0,59	0,47	-0,63	0,87	0,52
Total	média	6,46	1,06	14,94	453,74	364,92	57,11	33,63	-39,67	26,98	1,66
	dp	50,45	0,14	34,32	606,61	142,81	33,87	17,23	18,35	32,87	0,93
	cv	7,81	0,13	2,30	1,34	0,39	0,59	0,51	-0,46	1,22	0,56

Grupos		ti	p_tc	te_tc	td_tc	rpc	rpc_tc	pob_p	pob_p_tc	cv	ct
1	média	4,55	1,06	4,73	-38,06	546,20	39,76	10,37	-57,22	23,52	2,90
	dp*	7,28	0,11	11,24	28,45	58,68	23,72	4,43	13,70	21,16	1,76
	cv**	1,60	0,10	2,38	-0,75	0,11	0,60	0,43	-0,24	0,90	0,61
2	média	11,15	1,00	9,53	-31,48	355,45	52,82	26,55	-47,22	20,39	4,30
	dp	80,27	0,07	13,94	31,45	58,24	26,93	8,68	11,74	16,28	1,50
	cv	7,20	0,07	1,46	-1,00	0,16	0,51	0,33	-0,25	0,80	0,35
3	média	4,21	1,12	0,45	-41,49	785,94	42,57	5,66	-63,36	43,15	2,08
	dp	7,22	0,11	9,37	30,48	141,49	31,01	2,26	11,09	40,89	0,87
	cv	1,71	0,10	20,79	-0,73	0,18	0,73	0,40	-0,17	0,95	0,42
Total	média	7,13	1,05	5,95	-35,99	509,24	45,44	16,07	-54,23	25,49	3,32
	dp	51,10	0,11	12,56	30,22	169,45	26,98	10,74	13,93	25,22	1,76
	cv	7,16	-0,10	2, 11	-0,84	0,33	0,59	0,67	-0,26	099	0,53

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