ABSTRACT
Objective: To investigate standardized temperature measurement protocols and intelligent data processing methods to improve ovulation prediction accuracy.
Method: Based on Arksey and O'Malley's scoping review reporting framework, relevant publications from August 15, 2014, to August 15, 2024, were retrieved from the MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, and Web of Science databases. The publications were screened, summarized, and evaluated according to the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme to assess their rigor.
Results: A total of 21 publications reporting studies from 9 countries involving 26,044 participants were included. Fertility tracking system measurement devices based on basal body temperature (BBT) included wearable devices and basal body thermometers. The application functions included menstrual assessment, fertility prediction, contraception, and pregnancy management. The applications were evaluated in terms of functionality and user experience.
Conclusion: Research into the application of fertility tracking based on BBT remains in the preliminary stage. The findings of this study provide a valuable reference for the development of personalized and convenient applications, which requires high-quality prospective cohort research.
DESCRIPTORS
Ovulation Detection; Fertility Window; Menstruation; Pregnancy; Scoping Review
RESUMEN
Objetivo: Investigar protocolos estandarizados de medición de temperatura e inteligentes métodos de procesamiento de datos para mejorar la precisión de la predicción de la ovulación.
Método: Basándose en el marco de informe de revisión de alcance de Arksey y O’Malley, se recuperaron publicaciones relevantes desde el 15 de agosto de 2014 hasta el 15 de agosto de 2024 de las bases de datos MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS y Web of Science. Las publicaciones se seleccionaron, resumieron y evaluaron según el Programa de Habilidades de Evaluación Crítica (CASP) para evaluar su rigor metodológico.
Resultados: Se incluyeron un total de 21 publicaciones que informaban sobre estudios realizados en 9 países y que involucraron a 26.044 participantes. Los dispositivos de medición de sistemas de seguimiento de la fertilidad basados en la temperatura corporal basal (TBC) incluyeron dispositivos portátiles y termómetros de temperatura corporal basal. Las funciones de las aplicaciones abarcaron evaluación menstrual, predicción de fertilidad, anticoncepción y gestión del embarazo. Las aplicaciones fueron evaluadas en términos de funcionalidad y experiencia de usuario.
Conclusión: La investigación sobre la aplicación del seguimiento de la fertilidad basado en la TBC se encuentra aún en etapa preliminar. Los hallazgos de este estudio brindan una valiosa referencia para el desarrollo de aplicaciones personalizadas y convenientes, lo cual requiere futuras investigaciones prospectivas de cohorte de alta calidad.
DESCRIPTORES
Detección de la Ovulación; Ventana Fértil; Menstruación; Embarazo; Revisión de Alcance
RESUMO
Objetivo: Investigar protocolos padronizados de medição de temperatura e métodos inteligentes de processamento de dados para melhorar a precisão da previsão da ovulação.
Método: Com base no arcabouço de relato de revisão de alcance de Arksey e O’Malley, foram recuperadas publicações relevantes de 15 de agosto de 2014 a 15 de agosto de 2024 nas bases de dados MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS e Web of Science. As publicações foram selecionadas, resumidas e avaliadas de acordo com o Programa de Habilidades de Avaliação Crítica (CASP) para avaliar seu rigor.
Resultados: Foram incluídas um total de 21 publicações que relatavam estudos realizados em 9 países e envolveram 26.044 participantes. Os dispositivos de medição de sistemas de acompanhamento da fertilidade baseados na temperatura corporal basal (TCB) incluíram dispositivos portáteis e termômetros de temperatura corporal basal. As funções das aplicações incluíram avaliação menstrual, previsão de fertilidade, anticoncepção e gestão do embarazo. As aplicações foram avaliadas em termos de funcionalidade e experiência do usuário.
Conclusão: As pesquisas sobre a aplicação do acompanhamento da fertilidade baseado na TCB ainda estão em estágio preliminar. Os achados deste estudo fornecem uma referência valiosa para o desenvolvimento de aplicações personalizadas e convenientes, o que requer pesquisas prospectivas de coorte de alta qualidade.
DESCRITORES
Detecção da Ovulação; Janela Fértil; Menstruação; Gravidez; Revisão de Escopo
INTRODUCTION
Basal body temperature (BBT) can be used as a sign of fertility and is commonly utilized to estimate the fertility window through consistent monitoring, including digital tracking in health applications (apps)(1). The principle behind monitoring is that BBT presents a biphasic pattern due to the thermogenic effect of progesterone, a hormone that increases after ovulation(2). Currently, approximately 68% of fertility tracking applications rely on self-reporting BBT and menstrual cycle data to predict menstrual tracking and fertility, as it is a cost-effective, easy-to-use, and non-invasive method(3,4). These applications often encompass various functions, such as tracking menstrual cycles, recording symptoms, contraception and family planning, and pregnancy monitoring(5). However, despite their popularity, these applications have been criticized for potential harm due to concerns about their accuracy and the lack of robust evidence supporting their efficacy, which may lead to potential risks such as unintended pregnancies or delayed diagnosis of infertility(6,7). Therefore, there is an urgent need to enhance the predictive accuracy of these applications and strengthen the relevant evidence.
With the development of wearable devices and advancements in machine learning algorithms, precise prediction of the fertility window is becoming feasible. When worn at night on various parts of the body, such as the wrist or distal areas, wearable devices can provide continuous and detailed skin temperature data(8,9). Multiple studies have confirmed the consistency between nighttime skin temperature and BBT(8,10). At the same time, innovative machine-learning algorithms have been developed to analyze extensive time-series data to improve the accuracy of ovulation day prediction(8,11).
Despite these advances, no systematic review has evaluated the current status of measurement devices, the function of intelligent algorithms, or the effectiveness of fertility tracking applications based on BBT. To address this gap, a scoping review was proposed that could identify research progress in specific thematic areas more rapidly than traditional reviews while providing an overview that could drive updates in knowledge systems within this field(12). Based on this proposition, the present study aimed to conduct a systematic scoping review based on Arksey and O’Malley’s scoping review framework to evaluate the accuracy, functionalities, and user experience of fertility tracking applications that use intelligent algorithms and are based on BBT. The findings provide a reference and foundation for future research on fertility tracking applications based on BBT among women of childbearing age.
METHOD
Study Design
This scoping review followed the methodological framework of the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI), which aims to provide answers to a well-defined research question. Including research of various designs, this framework describes the extent, range, and nature of research and identifies lacunae in the existing literature. It consists of five steps: scoping, searching, screening, data extraction, and data analysis(13). Reporting of the methods and findings was guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) criteria(14). Data for this review were publicly available, so approval by the institution’s ethics committee was unnecessary.
Research Questions
This scoping review addresses the following research questions: (1) What are the monitoring devices for BBT, and how can confounding factors be controlled? (2) What is the specific content of menstrual and fertility tracking applications? (3) What are the effects of applying menstrual and fertility tracking applications?
Research Strategy
The eligibility of the studies was assessed based on the population, concept, and context (PCC) framework suggested by the JBI(15,16). Table 1 provides an overview of the PCC criteria and the types of evidence considered in this scoping review. The MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, and Web of Science databases were searched for all English-language articles published between August 15, 2014, and August 15, 2024. The detailed strategy on PubMed was use of the following Medical Subject Headings (MeSH): ((women AND (humans[Filter]) AND (“Basal Body Temperature”[Title/Abstract] OR “BBT”[Title/Abstract] OR “Skin Temperature”[Title/Abstract] OR “WST”[Title/Abstract] OR “core body temperature”[Title/Abstract] OR “thermal method”[Title/Abstract] OR “Symptothermal method”[Title/Abstract] OR “temperature Sensor”[Title/Abstract]) AND (“system*”[Title/Abstract] OR “device”[Title/Abstract] OR “app*”[Title/Abstract] OR “computers”[MeSH])) AND (2014:2024[pdat])). Another database search strategy that was devised by investigators and complied with the Peer Review of Electronic Search Strategies checklist was also used (Additional File 1).
Data Extraction
Concurrent with screening, a data extraction table was developed to collect information on each study’s authors, publication year, country, research design, research objective, method of measuring BBT, confounding factors, data processing and modeling, and application usage and effectiveness. Two investigators independently verified the accuracy of the data in the table.
Study Screening
Three investigators establish a shared understanding of the content and effectiveness of the menstrual and fertility tracking applications. Two investigators independently screened the titles and abstracts of 1357 records and compared and discussed the findings of the selected articles that met the inclusion criteria, which were considered eligible for full-text screening. The investigators sought advice from a third person in case of disagreement.
Quality Appraisal
Quality analysis of the literature included in the scoping review was performed to assess its strengths and limitations. The 2024 Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) tool was applied to facilitate a systematic assessment of the key methodological components, including study design, validity, rigor, and relevance to the research question(17). Two investigators independently performed the quality assessment and subsequently reached a consensus regarding the methodological quality of the studies. The assessment classified the studies into three categories: no concerns (answered “Yes” to all criteria), minor concerns (answered “Yes” to all except one criterion, to which was answered “No” or “Can’t Tell”), and major concerns (answered “No” or “Can’t Tell” to more than one criterion). Any disagreements were resolved through discussion.
Data Analysis
Data synthesis and analysis were conducted by two reviewers after they reached consensus through discussion. Initial categories were developed through eventual agreement, with the extracted data examined, discussed, compared, and collated. Categories were refined and adjusted through discussion and re-assessment of the extracted data, with final categories named and presented in a tabular format.
RESULTS
Search Results
A total of 1547 studies were initially identified, and 190 were removed as duplicates. Review of the titles and abstracts excluded 1294 articles, leaving 63 full-text articles to be screened. Of these, 42 articles were excluded; 13 because they were review articles, 11 because they were not consistent with the BBT’s definition, and 18 because they did not report tracking applications, leaving a total of 21 studies eligible for review (Figure 1). The details of these studies are shown in Table 2.
Study Characteristics
The studies published from 2014 to 2024 were conducted in nine countries, including six in Switzerland; five in the United States, two each in China, Japan, and Germany; and one each in Canada, Poland, Finland, and Australia. The research participants were healthy childbearing women aged 18 and 45 years. Only one study focused on women with ovulatory dysfunction, who were studied to estimate the menstrual cycle and detect the fertile window and ovulation day. Regarding the research design, most studies were prospective cohort (n = 12, 57.1%) or retrospective (n = 6, 28.6%) studies, with the observation duration four to seven cycles per participant; five studies were large-scale studies, and three studies involved questionnaire surveys.
Quality Assessment
Based on the 2024 CASP checklist assessment of the 21 included studies, this scoping review identified a tripartite stratification in methodological quality. Five studies (23.8%) raised major concerns, primarily due to incomplete confounding factor adjustments (Q5-Q6), as observed in Gombert-Labedens et al.(32) and Hurst et al.(33), which lacked clarity in addressing variables, as well as Manhart and Duane(24) and Fukaya et al.(25), which failed to account for these factors, coupled with issues such as unclear recruitment processes (Q2) in Hurst et al.(33) or insufficient follow-up duration/completeness (Q7-Q8) in Manhart and Duane(24). Three studies (14.3%) exhibited minor concerns, including those related to inconsistent outcome measurement methods (Q4) in Freundl et al.(26), partial reporting of precision estimates (Q10) in van de Roemer et al.(27), and uncertainties about local applicability (Q12) in Shilaih et al.(29) and Freundl et al.(26), with the latter and Regidor et al.(34) additionally neglecting to conduct stratification/multivariate analyses for confounding controls. Thirteen studies (61.9%) demonstrated no concerns in adhering to robust standards, particularly in defining research questions (Q1: 100% compliance), measuring outcomes (Q4: 81% compliance), and presenting results (Q9–Q11: 76–100% compliance). However, pervasive gaps persisted, quantified in Table 3 as suboptimal confounding control compliance (Q5–Q6: 61.9%, with 8 studies deficient), follow-up completeness limitations (Q7–Q8: 71.4% compliance), and insufficient local applicability validation (Q12: 47.6% compliance), collectively underscoring the necessity for future research to prioritize prespecified confounding adjustments, extended follow-up ≥ 6 menstrual cycles, and diversified population sampling to enhance evidence reliability and clinical utility. The overall assessment of each study is presented in Table 3.
Measurement Content and Methods
Nine studies analyzed the use of wearable devices, including bracelet, ring, vaginal, ear, and armband devices, for measuring body temperature (Table 4). These novel wearable devices continuously and automatically measure skin temperature during sleep to define BBT, with data collected from the middle phase of the night to avoid disturbances from the falling asleep and waking up phases(8). Furthermore, 16 studies considered some confounding factors that influence BBT, including individual factors (e.g., age, weight, illness, and medications), psychosocial factors (e.g., stress, insomnia, and climate change), and lifestyle factors (e.g., sexual activity, smoking status, and alcohol and coffee consumption). Furthermore, Yu et al.(18) and Alzueta et al.(9) used multi-sensor wearable devices (the Huawei Band and Oura Ring) to measure physiological parameters (heart rate [HR], HR variability [HRV], and sleep) to enhance prediction accuracy. Other studies used a basal thermometer to discuss how to improve the prediction accuracy by updating the algorithm.
User Experience of Wearable Devices
In the current technological landscape of fertility monitoring wearable devices, five categories (bracelets, rings, vaginal sensors, ear-worn devices, and armbands) demonstrate distinct performance variations and user-specific adaptability. Bracelets enable unobtrusive continuous tracking through wrist skin temperature monitoring with strong resistance to environmental interference, yet require daily charging and pose potential wrist movement restrictions. Nevertheless, they are suitable for women planning pregnancy who prioritize convenience, although sleep-related discomfort may compromise compliance(8,21,29). Featuring waterproof capabilities (up to 50 meters water resistant and sauna compatible), high data integrity (> 97%), and 3-day battery life, rings cater to women with irregular schedules, but strict size constraints and manual synchronization dependencies risk operational oversights(9,31,32). Vaginal sensors provide precise core body temperature measurements without urine sampling, ideal for cross-time zone or shift workers, yet their invasive design, which is associated with menstrual discomfort and psychological barriers, and requirement for monthly replacement limit their usage primarily to patients with infertility requiring high-precision data(34). Ear-worn devices attract tech-savvy users through stable ear canal temperature monitoring and fully automated artificial intelligence analysis, although their tendency to detach during sleep and risk of ear canal irritation may lead to nocturnal data gaps(18,30). With their 7-day battery life, minimal skin irritation, and multi-parameter monitoring, armbands serve clinical trial contexts but face practical limitations due to a 35% missed measurement rate and reliance on expert data interpretation(35).
Overall, device selection necessitates balancing accuracy (optimal in vaginal sensors) and compliance (better in bracelets and rings), alongside considerations of psychological acceptability (higher for non-invasive devices) and scenario-specific demands (medical-grade monitoring often sacrifices convenience). Future research should prioritize technical optimizations (e.g., extended battery life and reduced invasiveness) and personalized adaptations (based on occupational or physiological tolerance) to enhance long-term reliability and user adherence. These considerations for wearable devices are presented in Table 5.
Long-Term Monitoring Analysis and Clinical Implications
The existing literature indicates that temperature monitoring using wearable technology presents considerable advantages and research opportunities for the management of menstrual cycles over extended periods. The Ava bracelet, in particular, demonstrated significant fluctuations in wrist skin temperature (WST), heart rate, and respiratory rate across a year of continuous monitoring. This investigation confirmed that machine learning algorithms can achieve an accuracy rate of 90% in predicting the fertile window by synthesizing multi-parametric data, thereby highlighting the importance of long-term data for the optimization of these algorithms(21).
The study examining the Daysy device emphasized the critical importance of user compliance; specifically, when the frequency of measurements surpassed 80%, the accuracy of the algorithm’s outputs improved significantly, with 42.4% of “green days” accurately identified within fertile windows. Furthermore, the stability of the luteal phase length was maintained (mean of 12.7 ± 1.4 days), underscoring the necessity of consistent monitoring for the effectiveness of natural contraception methods(27). WST monitoring further validated its potential as an alternative to oral BBT measurement by exhibiting a biphasic pattern that correlated with oral BBT (r = 0.563) and a 0.30°C elevation during the luteal phase compared with follicular phase temperatures, although challenges related to environmental interference persisted(29). Additionally, the application of cosine modeling to long-term BBT data successfully identified 82% of biphasic cycles by quantifying rhythmic features such as median, amplitude, and peak phase, while also flagging abnormal cycles through deviations in these parameters, thus providing a quantitative tool for assessing menstrual health(32). In summary, long-term monitoring not only clarifies the dynamic stability of physiological parameters, such as the consistency of luteal phase temperature and length, but also reveals technical limitations, including device variability and environmental confounders.
Complex Data Processing and Analysis
Nine studies collected data simultaneously via Bluetooth synchronization, while the others relied on manual data entry by the participants, which may have led to input errors. To protect patient privacy and masking of subgroup differences, the data were collected in an anonymous form in seven studies. Due to the dense and complex nature of the temperature data, some studies conducted data preprocessing. For example, according to a data-cleaning protocol, the data were cleaned and organized to ensure accuracy, consistency, and completeness(30), and a MATLAB script was developed to manage it(31). In addition, each parameter underwent locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) before statistical analysis(19). Regarding missing data, five studies excluded it, and one study used multiple imputations for imputing the missing data(28). In terms of data analysis, some research presented data in the form of graphs and charts to better analyze it(34,35). Four studies explained how BBT predicted ovulation based on the “three over six” rule, which means that three temperatures are required to be 0.2°F above the highest point of the previous six temperatures, with at least one of the higher temperatures being 0.4°F above the lower ones(2). Freundl et al.(26) used Sensiplan® symptom-thermal methods to further enrich the rule. Additionally, 33.3% of studies used R software for data analyses and visualizations, 23.8% constructed linear mixed effects models, and 76.2% adopted innovative algorithms and models for prediction. Further exploration is needed to improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Functionality and Effectiveness of the Applications
The main functions of the applications include four aspects: menstrual cycle estimation (8 applications), fertility prediction (14 applications), contraception indication (2 applications), and pregnancy monitoring (1 application). Currently available applications include Ava, Natural Cycles, and Oura, WomanLog Pro, as well as the Ran’s Story website, and Pearly and Daysy Cycle computers. Stanford et al.(28) evaluated the fecundability of five applications (Clue, Fertility Friend, Glow, Kindara, and Ovia) and reported them as effective, but the findings lacked evidence. The evaluation metrics for application effectiveness were temperature shift; fertility window length; and model performance, including accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, root mean square error (RMSE) mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient, fertility index (Pearl Index, fecundability ratios, and time to pregnancy), and app availability (utilization and discontinuation rates).
DISCUSSION
The majority of studies examined in this review demonstrated that BBT can predict ovulation, and BBT is recognized as an indicator of fertility(36). However, traditional BBT measurement requires fixed timing and location, typically every morning before arising, which involves manually entering data into an application and measuring body temperature to track menstruation and ovulation(37,38). This daily routine can be tedious and subject to reporting errors(36,39). In this scoping review, 42% of the research was found to focus on using wearable devices to predict menstrual cycles and ovulation, driven by advancements in portable sensors and wearable technology that allow for continuous and dynamic collection of health information throughout the day(40,41). The results of this study confirm that wearable devices that continuously measure skin temperature and automatically synchronize data appear to be highly suitable for addressing the current limitations of traditional and BBT-based tracking apps(22). These devices can be worn on various parts of the body—the wrist, finger, upper arm, inside the vagina, or in the ear—and enable more extensive longitudinal tracking of physiological parameters, allowing users to observe personalized patterns in the evolving data(22,42). Moreover, these devices can also assess overall physical condition by measuring physiological changes, such as changes in HR, HRV, respiratory rate, skin perfusion, and sleep quality(9,19,22). Overall, compared to conventional devices, wearable devices have the potential to enhance BBT tracking by continuously measuring multiple physiological parameters, leading to a more precise estimation of ovulation. Further research is needed to validate these advancements. The main conclusions and clinical implications by device type are listed in Table 6.
The fusion of wearable sensor technology with machine learning algorithms has significantly advanced the development of intelligent fertility tracking applications(43). This integration has the potential to enable patient comprehensive characterization and optimized clinical interventions(44). Critical to realizing this vision is an accurate estimation of BBT time-series data, and several scholars have tried to remedy any deficiencies. For example, Fukaya et al.(25) and Kawamori et al.(10) developed a state space model that includes the menstrual phase as a latent state variable to explain daily fluctuations in BBT and the menstruation cycle length. The state space model relies on sequential Bayesian filtering techniques to map data to a state space to capture long-term dependency relationships and is commonly employed for describing and analyzing the behavior of dynamic systems in academic research(45). Similarly, Luo et al.(30) used a hidden Markov model to describe the probabilistic relationship between observation and hidden state sequences to predict future observation results or classify a sequence according to the potential hidden process of generated data. To further analyze the skin temperature circadian rhythm, some studies applied the cosinor model to facilitate the evaluation of menstrual cycle effects on physiological parameters and in clinical settings, using the characteristics of menstrual cycles as health markers or to facilitate menstrual chronotherapy(46). Some presented data analysis results in a visual format, helping users better understand the findings(22). The underlying technology algorithm was based on data entered each day, and the results were presented as either a red (risk) or green (no risk) icon to indicate risk of pregnancy(22). Machine learning algorithms will continue to offer more possibilities for improving the accuracy of fertility tracking applications in the future.
A web-based pilot survey found that approximately a quarter of respondents reported using fertility tracking applications, and 63% of users agreed that the applications were science-based and successful in determining the fertile window(47). However, the sensitivity of fertility tracking applications varies widely, from 62% for wrist-worn sensors to 28% for ear-worn devices(30,48). Moglia et al.(49) used the APPLICATIONS scoring system to assess menstrual cycle tracking applications and found that most free smartphone applications were inaccurate(50). Many fertility-related apps may be less accurate and less likely to publish their data in peer-reviewed journals. Therefore, reliance on these applications may lead to unintended pregnancies or delay in identifying infertility issues, causing indelible consequences(7,39,47). Further exploration of the user experience also revealed that users had concerns regarding inaccurate forecast dates, cost, and data privacy, as well as anxiety and frustration over unreliable prediction of the menstrual cycle(8,51). As application usage was observed to gradually decrease over time, the means of enhancing adherence while improving prediction accuracy are issues worth studying.
Women using these applications expect to receive scientific and comprehensive reproductive health information as well as emotional support and advice on contraceptive decisions, sexual health, and postoperative care(47). However, one review found that not all available applications are evidence-based(37), and only 17% provide information on contraception(49). Therefore, application designers should consider the diverse and evolving needs of users, catering to a wider range of purposes such as contraception and fertility tracking while observing the response to medication, monitoring reproductive diseases, and reaching out to a more diverse audience(5,7). To obtain more accurate fertility information, it is crucial to provide preliminary training on measurement methods and application operating steps. For example, personalized symptothermal method training can be obtained through the International Couple to Couple League (https://ccli.org/)(52).
STUDY LIMITATIONS
The current body of evidence on BBT-based fertility tracking technology, while promising, exhibits significant heterogeneity and methodological limitations that necessitate cautious interpretation. As identified through the CASP quality assessment, key concerns impacting the rigor and comparability of findings include the fact that a substantial proportion of studies inadequately addressed or reported on confounding factors known to influence BBT (e.g., illness, medication, significant lifestyle changes, and sleep disturbances). This omission introduces bias and limits the ability to isolate the true effects of the tracking technology itself on outcomes such as ovulation prediction accuracy and contraceptive efficacy. Another limitation was that the study included diverse populations from different countries (e.g., Switzerland, the United States, China, and Japan) of varying age ranges who were both healthy and who had health conditions (e.g., ovulatory dysfunction). Although this reflects real-world diversity, it also contributes to heterogeneity in results. Baseline fertility status, cycle regularity, cultural factors influencing compliance, and access to technology varied considerably. A third limitation was that the studies utilized different wearable devices (wristbands, rings, vaginal sensors, and earpieces) and traditional thermometers, each with inherent measurement variability. Crucially, the reference standards for confirming ovulation also differed (urine LH tests, ultrasound, serum hormone level, and cervical mucus assessment), each with varying sensitivity and specificity. This heterogeneity makes direct comparison of application and device performance across studies challenging. Finally, although use of prospective cohorts was common, several key studies relied on retrospective designs or lacked sufficient follow-up duration or completeness, raising concerns about selection bias and attrition bias, with only five studies conducted on a large scale. These limitations highlight the need for high-quality, prospective studies utilizing standardized protocols to control confounding factors while employing robust reference standards (such as serial ultrasound and serum progesterone measurement), clearly reporting algorithm methodologies (or making them open-source), and including diverse populations representative of intended users.
CONCLUSION
This review revealed several areas that require further research and upon which recommendations can be provided. First, wearable devices should collect data in a manner that avoids confounding the data with other factors and further improves the accuracy of the data. Second, innovative machine learning algorithms should process large sample time-series data and explore the best algorithm. Third, personalized, comprehensive, and scientific fertility information should be provided to women trying to conceive or prevent pregnancy. Fourth, focus should be placed on the user experience, interaction, and privacy. Fifth, the training and evaluation system of fertility tracking applications should be improved. Conducting further research is needed to apply these recommendations and enhance the value of fertility tracking based on BBT while promoting its further development.
DATA AVAILABILITY
The entire dataset supporting the results of this study was published in the article and in the “Supplementary Materials” section.
REFERENCES
-
1. Gibbons T, Reavey J, Georgiou EX, Becker CM. Timed intercourse for couples trying to conceive. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2023;2023(9):CD011345. doi: http://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD011345.pub3. PubMed PMID: 37709293.
» https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD011345.pub3 -
2. Su HW, Yi YC, Wei TY, Chang TC, Cheng CM. Detection of ovulation, a review of currently available methods. Bioeng Transl Med. 2017;2(3):238–46. doi: http://doi.org/10.1002/btm2.10058. PubMed PMID: 29313033.
» https://doi.org/10.1002/btm2.10058 -
3. Hutcherson TC, Cieri-Hutcherson NE, Donnelly PJ Jr, Feneziani ML, Grisanti KMR. Evaluation of mobile applications intended to aid in conception using a systematic review framework. Ann Pharmacother. 2020;54(2):178–86. doi: http://doi.org/10.1177/1060028019876890. PubMed PMID: 31510755.
» https://doi.org/10.1177/1060028019876890 -
4. Kräuchi K, Konieczka K, Roescheisen-Weich C, Gompper B, Hauenstein D, Schoetzau A, et al. Diurnal and menstrual cycles in body temperature are regulated differently: a 28-day ambulatory study in healthy women with thermal discomfort of cold extremities and controls. Chronobiol Int. 2014;31(1):102–13. doi: http://doi.org/10.3109/07420528.2013.829482. PubMed PMID: 24131147.
» https://doi.org/10.3109/07420528.2013.829482 -
5. Ford EA, Peters AE, Roman SD, Mclaughlin EA, Beckett EL, Sutherland JM. A scoping review of the information provided by fertility smartphone applications. Hum Fertil. 2022;25(4):625–39. doi: http://doi.org/10.1080/14647273.2021.1871784. PubMed PMID: 33783305.
» https://doi.org/10.1080/14647273.2021.1871784 -
6. Zwingerman R, Chaikof M, Jones C. A critical appraisal of fertility and menstrual tracking apps for the iPhone. J Obstet Gynaecol Can. 2020;42(5):583–90. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jogc.2019.09.023. PubMed PMID: 31882289.
» https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jogc.2019.09.023 -
7. Geampana A. Fertility apps, datafication and knowledge production in reproductive health. Sociol Health Illn. 2024;46(6):1238–55. doi: http://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9566.13793. PubMed PMID: 38823027.
» https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9566.13793 -
8. Zhu TY, Rothenbuhler M, Hamvas G, Hofmann A, Welter J, Kahr M, et al. The accuracy of wrist skin temperature in detecting ovulation compared to basal body temperature: prospective comparative diagnostic accuracy study. J Med Internet Res. 2021;23(6):e20710. doi: http://doi.org/10.2196/20710. PubMed PMID: 34100763.
» https://doi.org/10.2196/20710 -
9. Alzueta E, De Zambotti M, Javitz H, Dulai T, Albinni B, Simon KC, et al. Tracking sleep, temperature, heart rate, and daily symptoms across the menstrual cycle with the oura ring in healthy women. Int J Womens Health. 2022;14:491–503. doi: http://doi.org/10.2147/IJWH.S341917. PubMed PMID: 35422659.
» https://doi.org/10.2147/IJWH.S341917 -
10. Kawamori A, Fukaya K, Kitazawa M, Ishiguro M. A self-excited threshold autoregressive state-space model for menstrual cycles: forecasting menstruation and identifying within-cycle stages based on basal body temperature. Stat Med. 2019;38(12):2157–70. doi: http://doi.org/10.1002/sim.8096. PubMed PMID: 30666668.
» https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.8096 -
11. Colquhoun HL, Levac D, O’brien KK, Straus S, Tricco AC, Perrier L, et al. Scoping reviews: time for clarity in definition, methods, and reporting. J Clin Epidemiol. 2014;67(12):1291–4. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2014.03.013. PubMed PMID: 25034198.
» https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2014.03.013 -
12. Davis K, Drey N, Gould D. What are scoping studies? A review of the nursing literature. Int J Nurs Stud. 2009;46(10):1386–400. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2009.02.010. PubMed PMID: 19328488.
» https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2009.02.010 -
13. Peters MDJ, Godfrey C, Mcinerney P, Munn Z, Tricco AC, Khalil H. Scoping reviews (2020 version). In: Joanna Briggs Institute, editor. JBI manual for evidence synthesis. Adelaide: JBI; 2020. chap. 11, p. 458–71. doi: http://doi.org/10.46658/JBIMES-20-12.
» https://doi.org/10.46658/JBIMES-20-12 -
14. Page MJ, Mckenzie JE, Bossuyt PM, Boutron I, Hoffmann TC, Mulrow CD, et al. The PRISMA 2020 statement: an updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ. 2021;372(71):n71. doi: http://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71. PubMed PMID: 33782057.
» https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71 -
15. Munn Z, Stern C, Aromataris E, Lockwood C, Jordan Z. What kind of systematic review should I conduct? A proposed typology and guidance for systematic reviewers in the medical and health sciences. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2018;18(1):5. doi: http://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-017-0468-4. PubMed PMID: 29316881.
» https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-017-0468-4 -
16. Aromataris E, Fernandez R, Godfrey CM, Holly C, Khalil H, Tungpunkom P. Summarizing systematic reviews: methodological development, conduct and reporting of an umbrella review approach. Int J Evid-Based Healthc. 2015;13(3):132–40. doi: http://doi.org/10.1097/XEB.0000000000000055. PubMed PMID: 26360830.
» https://doi.org/10.1097/XEB.0000000000000055 -
17. Critical Appraisal Skills Programme. CASP checklist: for cohort studies 2024 [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Jan 26]. Available from: https://casp-uk.net/casp-tools-checklists/cohort-study-checklist/
» https://casp-uk.net/casp-tools-checklists/cohort-study-checklist/ -
18. Yu JL, Su YF, Zhang C, Jin L, Lin XH, Chen LT, et al. Tracking of menstrual cycles and prediction of the fertile window via measurements of basal body temperature and heart rate as well as machine-learning algorithms. Reprod Biol Endocrinol. 2022;20(1):118. doi: http://doi.org/10.1186/s12958-022-00993-4. PubMed PMID: 35964035.
» https://doi.org/10.1186/s12958-022-00993-4 -
19. Scherwitzl EB, Lindén Hirschberg A, Scherwitzl R. Identification and prediction of the fertile window using NaturalCycles. Eur J Contracept Reprod Health Care. 2015;20(5):403–8. doi: http://doi.org/10.3109/13625187.2014.988210. PubMed PMID: 25592280.
» https://doi.org/10.3109/13625187.2014.988210 -
20. Ecochard R, Duterque O, Leiva R, Bouchard T, Vigil P. Self-identification of the clinical fertile window and the ovulation period. Fertil Steril. 2015;103(5):1319–25 e3. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2015.01.031. PubMed PMID: 25724738.
» https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2015.01.031 -
21. Goodale BM, Shilaih M, Falco L, Dammeier F, Hamvas G, Leeners B. Wearable sensors reveal menses-driven changes in physiology and enable prediction of the fertile window: observational study. J Med Internet Res. 2019;21(4):e13404. doi: http://doi.org/10.2196/13404. PubMed PMID: 30998226.
» https://doi.org/10.2196/13404 -
22. Scherwitzl EB, Gemzell Danielsson K, Sellberg JA, Scherwitzl R. Fertility awareness-based mobile application for contraception. Eur J Contracept Reprod Health Care. 2016;21(3):234–41. doi: http://doi.org/10.3109/13625187.2016.1154143. PubMed PMID: 27003381.
» https://doi.org/10.3109/13625187.2016.1154143 -
23. Demianczyk A, Michaluk K. Evaluation of the effectiveness of selected natural fertility symptoms used for contraception: estimation of the Pearl index of Lady-Comp, Pearly and Daysy cycle computers based on 10 years of observation in the Polish market. Ginekol Pol. 2016;87(12):793–7. doi: http://doi.org/10.5603/GP.2016.0090. PubMed PMID: 28098936.
» https://doi.org/10.5603/GP.2016.0090 -
24. Manhart MD, Duane M. A comparison of app-defined fertile days from two fertility tracking apps using identical cycle data. Contraception. 2022;115:12–6. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.contraception.2022.07.007. PubMed PMID: 35901971.
» https://doi.org/10.1016/j.contraception.2022.07.007 -
25. Fukaya K, Kawamori A, Osada Y, Kitazawa M, Ishiguro M. The forecasting of menstruation based on a state-space modeling of basal body temperature time series. Stat Med. 2017;36(21):3361–79. doi: http://doi.org/10.1002/sim.7345. PubMed PMID: 28543214.
» https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.7345 -
26. Freundl G, Frank-Herrmann P, Brown S, Blackwell L. A new method to detect significant basal body temperature changes during a woman’s menstrual cycle. Eur J Contracept Reprod Health Care. 2014;19(5):392–400. doi: http://doi.org/10.3109/13625187.2014.948612. PubMed PMID: 25159914.
» https://doi.org/10.3109/13625187.2014.948612 -
27. van de Roemer N, Haile L, Koch MC. The performance of a fertility tracking device. Eur J Contracept Reprod Health Care. 2021;26(2):111–8. doi: http://doi.org/10.1080/13625187.2021.1871599. PubMed PMID: 33555223.
» https://doi.org/10.1080/13625187.2021.1871599 -
28. Stanford JB, Willis SK, Hatch EE, Rothman KJ, Wise LA. Fecundability in relation to use of mobile computing apps to track the menstrual cycle. Hum Reprod. 2020;35(10):2245–52. doi: http://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/deaa176. PubMed PMID: 32910202.
» https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/deaa176 -
29. Shilaih M, Goodale BM, Falco L, Kubler F, De Clerck V, Leeners B. Modern fertility awareness methods: wrist wearables capture the changes in temperature associated with the menstrual cycle. Biosci Rep. 2018;38(6):BSR20171279. doi: http://doi.org/10.1042/BSR20171279. PubMed PMID: 29175999.
» https://doi.org/10.1042/BSR20171279 -
30. Luo L, She X, Cao J, Zhang Y, Li Y, Song PXK. Detection and prediction of ovulation from body temperature measured by an in-ear wearable thermometer. IEEE Trans Biomed Eng. 2020;67(2):512–22. doi: http://doi.org/10.1109/TBME.2019.2916823. PubMed PMID: 31095472.
» https://doi.org/10.1109/TBME.2019.2916823 -
31. Maijala A, Kinnunen H, Koskimäki H, Jämsä T, Kangas M. Nocturnal finger skin temperature in menstrual cycle tracking: ambulatory pilot study using a wearable Oura ring. BMC Womens Health. 2019;19(1):150. doi: http://doi.org/10.1186/s12905-019-0844-9. PubMed PMID: 31783840.
» https://doi.org/10.1186/s12905-019-0844-9 -
32. Gombert-Labedens M, Alzueta E, Perez-Amparan E, Yuksel D, Kiss O, De Zambotti M, et al. Using wearable skin temperature data to advance tracking and characterization of the menstrual cycle in a real-world setting. J Biol Rhythms. 2024;39(4):331–50. doi: http://doi.org/10.1177/07487304241247893. PubMed PMID: 38767963.
» https://doi.org/10.1177/07487304241247893 -
33. Hurst BS, Davies K, Milnes RC, Knowles TG, Pirrie A. Novel Technique for confirmation of the day of ovulation and prediction of ovulation in subsequent cycles using a skin-worn sensor in a population with ovulatory dysfunction: a side-by-side comparison with existing basal body temperature algorithm and vaginal core body temperature algorithm. Front Bioeng Biotechnol. 2022;10:807139. doi: http://doi.org/10.3389/fbioe.2022.807139. PubMed PMID: 35309997.
» https://doi.org/10.3389/fbioe.2022.807139 -
34. Regidor PA, Kaczmarczyk M, Schiweck E, Goeckenjan-Festag M, Alexander H. Identification and prediction of the fertile window with a new web-based medical device using a vaginal biosensor for measuring the circadian and circamensual core body temperature. Gynecol Endocrinol. 2018;34(3):256–60. doi: http://doi.org/10.1080/09513590.2017.1390737. PubMed PMID: 29082805.
» https://doi.org/10.1080/09513590.2017.1390737 -
35. Wark JD, Henningham L, Gorelik A, Jayasinghe Y, Hartley S, Garland SM. Basal temperature measurement using a multi-sensor armband in Australian young women: a comparative observational study. JMIR Mhealth Uhealth. 2015;3(4):e94. doi: http://doi.org/10.2196/mhealth.4263. PubMed PMID: 26441468.
» https://doi.org/10.2196/mhealth.4263 -
36. Lyzwinski L, Elgendi M, Menon C. Innovative approaches to menstruation and fertility tracking using wearable reproductive health technology: systematic review. J Med Internet Res. 2024;26:e45139. doi: http://doi.org/10.2196/45139. PubMed PMID: 38358798.
» https://doi.org/10.2196/45139 -
37. Earle S, Marston HR, Hadley R, Banks D. Use of menstruation and fertility app trackers: a scoping review of the evidence. BMJ Sex Reprod Health. 2021;47(2):90–101. doi: http://doi.org/10.1136/bmjsrh-2019-200488. PubMed PMID: 32253280.
» https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjsrh-2019-200488 -
38. Ferguson T, Olds T, Curtis R, Blake H, Crozier AJ, Dankiw K, et al. Effectiveness of wearable activity trackers to increase physical activity and improve health: a systematic review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Lancet Digit Health. 2022;4(8):e615–26. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(22)00111-X. PubMed PMID: 35868813.
» https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(22)00111-X -
39. Uchida Y, Izumizaki M. The use of wearable devices for predicting biphasic basal body temperature to estimate the date of ovulation in women. J Therm Biol. 2022;108:103290. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtherbio.2022.103290. PubMed PMID: 36031211.
» https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtherbio.2022.103290 -
40. Li K, Urteaga I, Wiggins CH, Druet A, Shea A, Vitzthum VJ, et al. Characterizing physiological and symptomatic variation in menstrual cycles using self-tracked mobile-health data. NPJ Digit Med. 2020;3(1):79. doi: http://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-020-0269-8. PubMed PMID: 32509976.
» https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-020-0269-8 -
41. Worsfold L, Marriott L, Johnson S, Harper JC. Period tracker applications: what menstrual cycle information are they giving women? Womens Health. 2021;17:17455065211049905. doi: http://doi.org/10.1177/17455065211049905. PubMed PMID: 34629005.
» https://doi.org/10.1177/17455065211049905 -
42. Piwek L, Ellis DA, Andrews S, Joinson A. The rise of consumer health wearables: promises and barriers. PLoS Med. 2016;13(2):e1001953. doi: http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001953. PubMed PMID: 26836780.
» https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001953 -
43. Wei S, Wu Z. The application of wearable sensors and machine learning algorithms in rehabilitation training: a systematic review. Sensors. 2023;23(18):7667. doi: http://doi.org/10.3390/s23187667. PubMed PMID: 37765724.
» https://doi.org/10.3390/s23187667 -
44. Gurchiek RD, Cheney N, Mcginnis RS. Estimating biomechanical time-series with wearable sensors: a systematic review of machine learning techniques. Sensors. 2019;19(23):5227. doi: http://doi.org/10.3390/s19235227. PubMed PMID: 31795151.
» https://doi.org/10.3390/s19235227 -
45. Mackevicius EL, Fee MS. Building a state space for song learning. Curr Opin Neurobiol. 2018;49:59-68. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.conb.2017.12.001. PubMed PMID: 29268193.
» https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conb.2017.12.001 -
46. Huang Q, Komarzynski S, Bolborea M, Finkenstadt B, Levi FA. Telemonitored human circadian temperature dynamics during daily routine. Front Physiol. 2021;12:659973. doi: http://doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2021.659973. PubMed PMID: 34040543.
» https://doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2021.659973 -
47. Peterson SF, Fok WK. Mobile technology for family planning. Curr Opin Obstet Gynecol. 2019;31(6):459-63. doi: http://doi.org/10.1097/GCO.0000000000000578. PubMed PMID: 31573996.
» https://doi.org/10.1097/GCO.0000000000000578 -
48. Patel U, Broad A, Biswakarma R, Harper JC. Experiences of users of period tracking apps: which app, frequency of use, data input and output and attitudes. Reprod Biomed Online. 2024;48(3):103599. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.rbmo.2023.103599. PubMed PMID: 38295553.
» https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rbmo.2023.103599 -
49. Moglia ML, Nguyen HV, Chyjek K, Chen KT, Castano PM. Evaluation of smartphone menstrual cycle tracking applications using an adapted APPLICATIONS scoring system. Obstet Gynecol. 2016;127(6):1153–60. doi: http://doi.org/10.1097/AOG.0000000000001444. PubMed PMID: 27159760.
» https://doi.org/10.1097/AOG.0000000000001444 -
50. Broad A, Biswakarma R, Harper JC. A survey of women’s experiences of using period tracker applications: Attitudes, ovulation prediction and how the accuracy of the app in predicting period start dates affects their feelings and behaviours. Womens Health. 2022;18:17455057221095246. doi: http://doi.org/10.1177/17455057221095246. PubMed PMID: 35465788.
» https://doi.org/10.1177/17455057221095246 -
51. Simmons RG, Jennings V. Fertility awareness-based methods of family planning. Best Pract Res Clin Obstet Gynaecol. 2020;66:68–82. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpobgyn.2019.12.003. PubMed PMID: 32169418.
» https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpobgyn.2019.12.003 -
52. Mangone ER, Lebrun V, Muessig KE. Mobile phone apps for the prevention of unintended pregnancy: a systematic review and content analysis. JMIR Mhealth Uhealth. 2016;4(1):e6. doi: http://doi.org/10.2196/mhealth.4846. PubMed PMID: 26787311.
» https://doi.org/10.2196/mhealth.4846


